Weekly Analyst Review

15 February 2023

Bottom Line Up Front

While Islamic State, as a whole, tends to operate in an organized manner, no Islamic State region more than the Philippines is the picture of organization so profusely fractured.

The small nation of the Philippines has at a minimum, four branches under Islamic State East Asia (ISEA), but recent reports about Emir Abu Zakariya by ISEA insiders reveal an obvious disarray amongst branches. Each of the four ISEA branches seems so unclear about what the others are doing, leaving us all with two questions: "Is the ISEA Emir dead or alive?" and "Does anyone really know what's going on in the Philippines?"

On 13 February 2023, Islamic State (IS) Daulah Islamiyah insiders confirmed that Islamic State East Asia (ISEA) Emir Abu Zakariya (Zacharia) is still alive and continues to operate in the Philippines. One of the messages even went so far as to claim that Zakariya actively led the ambush last week in Marogong, which was the first officially claimed attack in months in the Philippines by Islamic State Central Command.

This recent announcement completely contradicts previous announcements made by the unofficial East Asia Knights (now al-Faris Media) media label in 2022. Though it should be noted that the Philippine Army never pronounced Zakariya as dead.

Although Abu Zakariya became the leader of the Maute Group in October 2020, he had only been named as a possible candidate for overall Emir after the loss of Marawi. Nonetheless, in March 2022 the Philippine army announced that Zakariya had ascended to overall Emir of ISEA.

Nine months later, on 03 December 2022, East Asia Knights (now al-Faris Media) released a martyr video featuring Emir Abu Zakariya (Zacariah), aka Faharudin Hadji Sata, announcing his death on 06 February 2022, thereby challenging the March 2022 claims by the Philippine army. However, a little more than two weeks later, on 21 December, the Philippine army reported that intelligence regarding a recent tactical operation involving the capture of an ISEA encampment, showed that ISEA Emir, Faharudin Hadji Satar, also known as Abu Zacharia and Jer Mimbantas, had been sighted in the area with about 30 armed followers.

It is certainly possible that Zakariya's death announcement was an attempt to derail the Philippine military’s counterterrorism campaign, as terrorists were known to have faked their deaths only to reemerge later. However, it is completely unclear why Daulah Islamiyah ISEA insiders did not profess that East Asia Knights were wrong when they issued not one, but two, proclamations of Abu Zakariya’s martyrdom.

It should be noted that not only did East Asia Knights provide images of the purported lifeless body of the fallen Emir in both announcements, but also Daulah Islamiyah is an alternate alias for Maute Group, which is the ISEA franchise that Emir Abu Zakariya (Zacharia) is from and led. So while both Daulah Islamiyah and East Asia Knights claims could hold credence, TRAC cannot confidently assert which account is correct.

Other Developments

TRAC Incident Report:

As-Sahab Media (al-Qaeda Central Command / AQC):

Video Release Featuring Ayman al-Zawahiri

“How to Support The Palestinian Cause”

Banner for the video released

Since the death of Ayman al-Zawahiri in August 2022, as-Sahab media has released a number of videos which were recorded several months before Zawahiri’s death. The video released on 13 February 2023, which generically discusses the issue of Palestine and invites Muslims to attack Israel is no exception. However, this video eerily included a photo of Alqam Khairi, the executor of the 27 January 2023 synagogue shooting in Neve Yaakov Neighborhood in East Jerusalem.

Months after a targeted US drone strike killed Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda supporters are still awaiting to learn to whom they will pledge allegiance as their new supreme leader. Though the leadership decapitation has not affected the day-to-day operations for either of AQC’s two biggest and most active franchises, al-Shabaab and Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), for individual supporters, it is an entirely different story. Many individual supporters refuse to believe their leader is actually dead and videos like this seem to give them cause to hold onto that belief.

TRAC Incident Report:

An Improvised Explosive Device (IED) Blast at a Train Station

Killed Three and Injured 9 Others, Nyaunglebin, Bago, Myanmar

Aftermath of the explosion

On 13 February 2023, around midday, an improvised explosive device (IED) detonated at a train station in Nyaunglebin Township, Bago Region, Myanmar. The blast resulted in the death of three people, including two women, as well as the injury of nine others.

Although it is not clear who is behind the bombing, nor has the attack been claimed by any group thus far, TRAC posits that this incident is likely the work of the military junta, aiming at blaming People Defense Forces (PDF) rebels for killing civilians, as the incident was first reported by the military junta media.

A similar attack targeting a ferry boat in Yangon took place on 18 December 2022, and in that attack, State propaganda channels on social media were quick to blame the bombing on PDF.

TRAC Incident Report:

Accelerationist 'Z-Cell' Group Shares Stochastic Poster

Advocating to ‘Stop Talking Start Killing’

Partial of the poster shared online by Z-Cell

The accelerationist ‘Z-Cell’ racist group, loosely affiliated with The Terrorgram Collective, has recently made headlines in January by filming themselves in a nighttime vandalism assault on the GOP headquarters in Kent County, Grand Rapids, Michigan. It should be noted that ‘Z-Cell’ had a nearly identical vandalism assault on 14 November 2022, but that incident was on the Democratic Party headquarters in Grand Rapids with antisemitic graffiti.

The Terrorgram Collective often shares serious instructional advice, attempting to inspire lone wolf attacks across the United States. It should be noted that a secondary Stochastic poster/meme by Terrorgram Collective was shared shortly after, and their instructional advice was to target police forces on lunch break "Law and Order Can’t Stop Them; Law and Order Can’t Stop You."

On Our Radar:

TRAC Incident Report: German Anarchist Arson of a Amazon Truck, in Solidarity with Alfredo Cospito, Berlin, Germany

TRAC Incident Report: South African Right-Wing Group "Die Vryburger Beweging" (The Free-Citizen Movement) Shares Irish Anti-Immigration March Video Taken in Cabra, Dublin, Republic of Ireland

TRAC Video Report: Patriot Front Conducts

a Training Assembly in Tennessee, United States

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