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Good morning!
Today starts the two day FED meeting where today and tomorrow, FED officials decide the plight of all Americans with their decision on interest rates. This group of men and women decide the fate of consumers and businesses across the country as they pull the strings with, among other things, money supply (or lack thereof), interest rates and cost of capital. Must be nice!
As of now, the Fed Fund Futures are pricing in a 99% chance of no change for the release tomorrow afternoon at 2:00 PM EST. Traders and investors really aren't predicting a change in rates (read: lower) until at least June.
Analyst's were calling for 4 or 5 cuts this year now they are saying we might only get 2!!! Inflation is still high and everything we touch is extremely expensive but as much as the consumer might be griping and complaining about the costs, they are still out there spending like drunken sailors! The consumer has literally saved this market from falling off a cliff.
We are in a very large range right now and markets are literally all over the place so trade cautiously. Longer term holders are just fine and the current long term trends are still in tact and pointing higher. Yes we do get liquidation breaks and pullbacks as we have recently seen, however buyers show back up in a moments notice!
Futures are now lower this morning as the entire move from yesterday pre-market has now given it all back. The games being played right now are epic!
As of this writing, overnight inventory is 99% net short this time and and we are gapping well below yesterday's range. Exact mirror opposite from prior day....hhhmmmmm. The market is now acting like a flea on crack so watch your backs!
The profile pic below lays it out. There is now a gap above us which is 5210.25 to 5201.75. Anything below 5201.75 look for 5183.75 then 5175-5165.
If buyers take us back into the gap and up into Monday's range then look for 5225.50 then 5240.
VPOC update: 5218 was taken out but of course another new one was added below at 5183.75 so we are right back to 20 untested points of control below current price!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5235 - 5240
Key Level: 5210.50 - 5201.75 Gap Friday to Monday
downside target is: 5185 - 5175
/NQ upside target is: 18,350 - 18,370
Key Level: 18,213 - 18,175 Gap Friday to Monday
downside target is : 18,175 - 18,150
/RTY upside target is: 2054 - 2056
downside target is: 2036 - 2034
Economic Data: Light Today.
FED TWO DAY MEETING STARTS TODAY
Housing Starts and Building Permits @ 8:30 AM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key Demand at $5155- 5170 with Supply at $5240-5230 & $5215 -5205
- First I want to see if the Bulls can defend the key demand zone after a sell off at the open. Looking to play a break and retest long above $5170 targeting $5200
- If price breaks below $5150 0 I would like to play short if it acts as resistance after a pullback targeting $5138 first then $5125
SPY - Key Demand at $509-508 with Supply above at $515-513 then at $518
- Sellers at the open break below $509 and holds as resistance looking to play short off a pullback targeting $507.75 first then $506
- If Bulls can defend above $508 I would like to play long off a bounce from Demand confirmed by the tape ( and holding above VWAP ) targeting $511
SPX - Key demand flipped to supply yesterday at $5165- 5155 with nearest Demand below at $5125-5135 with previous GAP UP. I would only like to play short off failed rallies or if price can break below and hold $5125 targeting$ 5110. Sell off at the open supported above $5135 I would like to play long off a break and retest targeting $5150
/NQ - Key Demand above at $18000 - 50 with Supply above $18230- 18200
- I would like to play short if price can break and retest, holding below $18150 targeting $18100 then $18080. If price can reclaim above $18180 I would like to play like with a break and retest above $18200 where supply flips to demand
QQQ - Key Demand below at $432-434 with Supply at $438 - 437 then at $440
- First I am watching how price reacts at $432 looking to play long if it can hold above then break and retest targeting $435 first then $437
- If price can break below and hold $432 as resistance I will look to play short after a break and retest targeting $430 first then $429
Also Watching …
NVDA - Inside a balanced range Demand at $830-845 and Supply $915-910
HOOD - Key Demand at $17 with Supply HOD at $19
- Break and retest at $17 looking to play long, break down below and hold as resistance i will look to play short targeting $16.35 first the $15.90
TSLA - Key Demand at $160-162 then at $165 with Supply at $175-174
- If price can break and hold above $175 I will look to play long or if there is a bounce from prior Gap Up at $165 after morning sell off fails to break below.
META - Supply flipping to Demand at $ 492 . If price can break and retest above $490 I would like to play long. Below I will look short after a pullback fails to break above $490
AMD - Key Demand at $183 -184 with Supply at $196-194
- I would like to play short after buying fails to breakout above $190 targeting $187
AMZN - Key Demand at $171- 172 with Supply at $176-175
As ALWAYS, have your stops in place!!!
Have a great day!
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