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Good Friday morning!
Well there it was.....and there it went. The one day liquidation break Wednesday was absorbed in the previous overnight and prior day's trading session on Thursday and here we are up again this morning. When the market is up 22% year to date, then there is little motivation for sellers to get aggressive so the rally probably lasts into year end at this point. I mean why not kick any tax liability out to 2026, right?!?! Now obviously I cant guarantee that but for context, I have not gotten anything short as of yet if that gives you a clue as to where my head is and how I'm thinking about the current state of the market.
Today futures are actually much higher...again....and we are almost back to Wednesday's highs! If price stays above that level, @ 5874, into the close today, then that liquidation break was a one off and sellers were obviously not that serious! Overnight inventory is net long and we are actually opening with a true gap higher over yesterday's range. If price stay above 5858 then keep an eye on upper targets and then the VPOC @ 5892.50. Any break back below 5858 look for the POC @ 5849 then lower targets IF tempo and momentum keeps picking up steam to the downside. Again that is a very "BIG IF"! Please check out key levels and profile pic below. Futures are trading at 5870 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added yesterday however the recent new one @ 5892.50 could be in play today if our upper targets are taken out! We still have 25 below current price and we might even add another new one below today if price stays above 5849!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5875 - 5885
Key Levels: 5849 POC
downside target is: 5820 - 5810
/NQ upside target is: 20,520 - 20,540
Key Level: 20,372 Value Area High
downside target is : 20,230 - 20,200
/RTY upside target is: 2260 - 2270
downside target is: 2215 - 2205
Economic Data:
Durable Goods Orders @ 8:30 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 AM ET
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Demand $5800 - 5820 with Supply above at $5870-60
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5870 after a pullback below $5865 looking to play SHORT targeting $5810 then $5800
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5870 after a break and retest above $5875 playing LONG targeting $5900 -$5910
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SPY - Demand at $577-578 with Supply above at $581-582 ( previous demand )
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $581 after a break and retest above $582 looking to play LONG targeting $584 then $585
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $580 after a retest from $579 where Demand would flip back to Supply targeting $577 then $576
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/NQ - Key Demand at $20250 with at Supply $20600-20550
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $20250 looking to play long after a pullback holds above $20260 targeting $20345 then $20400
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $20250 and holding looking to play short targeting $20200 then $20100
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QQQ - Key Demand at $489-490 with Supply above at $497-496
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $489 looking to play long from a break and retest at $490 targeting $492 then $494
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $489 after a break and retest below $488 looking to play short targeting $487 then $486
Also watching …
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NVDA Key Demand $139-140 with Supply above at $144 HOD
Bearish
Sellers trapped below $140 after a break and retest from $139 looking to play short targeting $137 then $136
Bullish
Buyers trapped above $140 after a break and retest from $140 looking to play long targeting $142 then new HOD
Have a great day and a fun weekend!
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