NewsletterHeader5.png

Weekly Analyst Review

31 July 2024

 

Bottom Line Up Front

On 26 July 2024, anarchists executed coordinated arson attacks on critical installations along the high-speed train lines connecting Paris to various other cities across France and Europe. The timing of these attacks, coinciding with the opening day of the Olympic Games in Paris, is a deliberate attempt to disrupt the event and amplify their anti-Games message. This incident aligns with the anarchists' well-documented modus operandi, showcasing their persistent efforts to undermine high-profile events and propagate their radical agenda.



TRAC has documented a surge in anarchist activity across France in the lead-up to the Olympics, with numerous calls to action and incendiary messages circulating among left-wing groups. These coordinated attacks are part of a broader pattern of similar anarchist actions globally, reflecting a growing left-wing threat that extends beyond France and Germany to other parts of Europe and North and South America.


The accessibility of key infrastructure targets such as railway cable shafts, electricity pylons, and power plants exacerbates the threat posed by anarchists. These installations are critical to national security and have become frequent targets of anarchist sabotage. The attacks on France's railway system are particularly concerning given the country's reliance on these networks for both domestic and international travel during the Olympics.


A comparable incident occurred in Germany, where unknown individuals sabotaged optical fiber cables belonging to the Deutsche Bahn network in Berlin and North Rhine-Westphalia. In another instance, anarchists carried out arson attacks on three critical infrastructure points of the Deutsche Bahn railway services between Hamburg and Berlin, causing significant disruptions to train traffic across northern Germany.


The frequency and sophistication of these attacks underscore the vulnerability of railway systems to anarchist sabotage. These acts often draw on techniques detailed in instructional manuals circulated within anarchist circles, providing step-by-step guides on how to disrupt critical infrastructure effectively. As TRAC has noted on multiple occasions, Anarchist's advice and subsequent attacks frequently "jump the pond" in the Atlantic Ocean where attacks in Europe are mirrored in North and South America.

As the Paris Olympics continue, the risk of further anarchist attacks remains high. The weekend following the opening of the Olympic Games in Paris saw three additional attacks. On the night of 25-26 July, anarchists targeted a relay antenna and a fiber optic connection node in Saint Orens de Gameville, setting them ablaze. The perpetrators left a clear message, spray-painting “No JO” (No Olympics) on the tower housing the cables, signalling their opposition to the Games.


The same night, fiber optic cables crucial for the safety of SNCF train drivers were deliberately cut and set on fire, further disrupting France's critical infrastructure. These attacks were not isolated incidents. By the night of Sunday, 29 July 2024, anarchists expanded their operations, damaging telecommunications infrastructures belonging to SFR, Free, and Bouygues across at least eight departments.


These attacks underscore the ongoing threat posed by anarchists intent on disrupting the Olympic Games. The coordinated nature of these actions demonstrates a calculated effort to maximize disruption and draw attention to their anti-Olympics message. The targeting of essential infrastructure, such as fiber optic cables and telecommunications networks, highlights their strategic intent to cause widespread chaos and inconvenience, not only during the Games but also across the broader French society.


The escalation of these attacks also reflects the anarchists' growing confidence and organizational capability. Their ability to strike multiple locations across various departments in a single weekend indicates a well-coordinated network determined to sustain pressure throughout the duration of the Olympics. As the Games continue, the risk of further attacks on critical infrastructure remains high, with anarchists likely to target other vulnerable sectors in their campaign against the event.

Other Developments

TRAC Incident Report: Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) Takes Credit for an Armed Assault on a Convoy of Malian Forces (FAMA/Wagner), Killing 50 Mercenaries and 10 Malian Soldiers. Wagner Helicopter Shot Down, South of Tinzaouaten, Kidal Region, Mali

On 27 July 2024, a convoy consisting of approximately 70 Wagner mercenaries and at least 10 Malian soldiers was ambushed by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) militants south of Tinzaouaten in the Kidal Region of Mali. The attack appears to have been a coordinated effort, with JNIM allegedly collaborating with the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA), not only for this ambush but also for an earlier attack on 25 July 2024.


Sources associated with Wagner revealed that the militants planted explosives inside one of the convoy’s vehicles, leading to the destruction of several Wagner vehicles. Additionally, a Mi-24 helicopter providing air cover was reportedly shot down, although the Russian pilots survived. There is some ambiguity surrounding the downing of the helicopter, as Russian sources used a photo from Azawad social media dated 26 July, raising questions about whether another helicopter was downed on 27 July.


Preliminary reports suggest that at least 20 Wagner servicemen were killed, though some sources speculate the death toll could be higher. Footage circulated on Telegram shows at least 30 dead militants on the ground. Among the casualties was the administrator of the prominent Grey Zone Telegram channel, known by the nickname “Beliy,” who was later identified as 31-year-old Nikita Fedyanin from Lipetsk Oblast. Wagner group commander Anton Elizarov, known as “Lotos,” was also confirmed killed in the attack.


In addition to the fatalities, approximately five Wagner militants were captured alive. Footage released by the militants shows one of the captured servicemen, restrained and bloodied, being forced to utter the word “Azawad,” likely as a form of propaganda to commemorate their successful ambush. There are unconfirmed reports that a high-ranking Wagner commander may have been among those captured. Shortly after the attack, there were claims that ransom money was collected and sent to the attackers for the release of the captured Wagner personnel. However, TRAC has not ruled out the possibility of a high-profile execution video being released if the ransom is not paid.


Background: Escalation in Northern Mali (20-27 July 2024)


Since 20 July 2024, military activity has intensified in northern Mali, with the Malian government planning to seize a major rebel stronghold. On 25 July, fighting erupted near Tin-Zaouitane when a Malian army convoy, supported by Wagner forces, approached the city. Azawad separatists offered strong resistance, leading to intermittent clashes that extended into the following day.


By 26 July, the conflict escalated, with reports indicating that Azawad militants managed to damage a Mi-24 helicopter transporting wounded soldiers, forcing it to make a hard landing in Kidal. The mounting losses forced government forces to retreat, halting their movement near Tin-Gamira after hitting a large IED, where militants were already lying in wait for the 27 July ambush.



In response to these losses, Wagner headquarters announced that additional forces would be deployed to Mali, signalling a likely escalation in the conflict in the coming weeks.

TRAC Incident Report: Suspected Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) Militants Armed Assault on Niger Armed Forces (FAN) Convoy Results in the Death of 237 Soldiers, Tankadémi, Tahoua Region, Niger

On 21 July 2024, a convoy of Nigerien security forces (FDS/FAN/GNN) was ambushed by an estimated 350 Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) fighters in the Tankadémi area of the Tahoua Region, near the border with Mali. The ambush resulted in the loss of 237 soldiers, marking the deadliest attack ever perpetrated by ISGS against the Nigerien armed forces. Due to the lack of air support, responding military units from Ouallam were unable to reach the affected area promptly, delaying the recovery of the bodies by several days.


This attack highlights the severe challenges that Nigerien security forces face in their ongoing battle against jihadist groups. Tankadémi's strategic location near the Malian border makes it a critical objective for ISGS, as control over this area enables the group to consolidate its influence and maintain vital connections westward to the Malian territories of Inekar and the Menaka-Ansongo axis, and southward along the N25 Road between Filingué and Abala.


ISGS's strategy appears to be aimed at encircling Nigerien security forces positioned between the N25 Road and the Niger River, with the ultimate goal of driving them out of this region. There have been reports of desertions and resignations among Nigerien armed forces personnel, exacerbated by the recent spate of ISGS-led ambushes in the Kokorou and Ikarffane areas.


The inability of the Nigerien armed forces to secure these critical regions may lead to a full-scale conflict between Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and ISGS for control over the gold-rich lands located east of the Niger River, extending to the Malian border. A recent JNIM-led attack on Nigerien security forces near M’Banga underscores the escalating tensions and the potential for further violence as these rival jihadist factions vie for dominance in this volatile region.

TRAC Incident Report: White Lives Matter (WLM) Pennsylvania & Michigan Chapters Meet Up to Promote Ideology, in Front of Courthouse, in Howell, Michigan, United States

On 25 July 2024, the Michigan and Pennsylvania chapters of the White Lives Matter (WLM) movement gathered outside the courthouse in Howell, Michigan, for a rally. The participants, numbering around ten, held signs with messages such as "White Lives Matter," "Fight Against White Replacement," and "End the War on White Children." In addition to the signs, some members of the group were seen performing the Nazi salute, a gesture that underscores the extremist and white supremacist ideologies at the core of the movement.


The White Lives Matter movement continues to focus on spreading its message to the broader white public, advocating a political solution to their perceived grievances, which includes attempts to bring their extremist ideology into mainstream politics. The movement's rhetoric often centers on highlighting incidents of Black-on-White crime and promoting conspiracy theories about Jewish control of global affairs. Their activities have largely consisted of public demonstrations, banner displays, and flyer campaigns aimed at raising awareness and gaining support among like-minded individuals.


The rally in Howell, Michigan, is part of a broader pattern of far-right activity in the United States, particularly as the country approaches a contentious presidential election. Right-wing extremist groups, including White Lives Matter, have been vocal in their criticism of the political establishment, accusing candidates of neglecting the rights of white Americans while focusing on minority communities. The recent announcement that Kamala Harris will replace Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate has likely intensified the animosity within these groups, given Harris's background as a Black and South Asian woman. It is anticipated that the White Lives Matter movement will strongly oppose her candidacy, and there is concern that their activities could escalate as the election draws nearer.


This rally follows a previous incident on 20 April 2024, when the Michigan chapter of White Lives Matter marked Adolf Hitler's birthday by broadcasting racist and neo-Nazi messages on billboards in several locations across Metro Detroit, Michigan. These messages were designed to subtly promote white supremacist ideologies, exploiting covert references to Nazi symbols and rhetoric to evade detection by the billboard companies. This event, like the recent rally, highlights the ongoing efforts of White Lives Matter to promote their extremist views and gain visibility, even as they face widespread public criticism and condemnation.

TRAC Incident Report: Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) Militants Ambush China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Trucks Carrying Mineral from Kadkocha, Mastung, Balochistan, Pakistan

On 23 July 2024, Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) militants ambushed a China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) logistics truck transporting minerals from Kadkocha to Quetta near Mastung, Balochistan, Pakistan. Following the attack, the BLF militants reportedly retreated to safety, according to a statement from the group's spokesman. This marks the second time BLF militants have targeted a CPEC-affiliated mineral truck in the Kadkocha area.


The BLF's ongoing campaign against CPEC infrastructure is part of a broader strategy to disrupt the economic development of Balochistan, aiming to increase the financial and security costs associated with the project. By striking at CPEC assets, the BLF seeks to undermine foreign direct investment in Pakistan, particularly investments tied to Chinese interests, thereby challenging the state's authority and economic plans in the region.


A notable aspect of these attacks is the BLF's reported practice of sparing Baloch drivers, allowing them to leave with a warning. This tactic is designed to foster ethnic solidarity and signal to the Baloch population that the BLF differentiates between local Balochs and those associated with the Pakistani state or foreign projects. This restraint is likely to bolster the group's image among the Baloch people, portraying them as protectors of Baloch interests against external exploitation. In contrast to the often brutal actions of Pakistan's armed forces against Baloch communities, the BLF's approach could attract both passive and active support for their cause. TRAC assesses that this incident will likely contribute to increased sympathy and recruitment for the BLF, further intensifying the insurgency in Balochistan.

TRAC Incident Report: Ansar al-Sharia in Yemen (ASY / AQAP) Bombed Shabwa Forces With Improvised Weaponized Drones, Wadi Omran Valley, Mudiyah Area, Abyan Governorate, Yemen

TRAC Incident Report: Armed Confrontation Breaks Out Between Two Moro Rival Groups, Resulting in the Death of a Leader, Datu Odin Sinsuat in Maguindanao del Norte, Philippines


TRAC Incident Report: Militants of the Italian Far-Right CasaPound Group Physically Attack the Journalist Andrea Joly, Turin, Piedmont Region, Northwestern Italy

TRACFusion_Newsletter2.png

CLICK HERE FOR PAST WEEKLY BRIEFINGS

TRAC Logo_Primary_TransparentWhite.png
Facebook          X          Instagram