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Quotes of the Day:
“Worry is like praying against yourself.”
–James Spencer
“The most noble fate a man can endure is to place his own mortal body between his loved home and the war’s desolation.”
– Robert A. Heinlein – Starship Troopers
“As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them.”
– John Fitzgerald Kennedy
1. North Korea Shows Its Drone Capabilities With Explosive Exhibition
2. ‘Monstrous’ North Korean artillery spotted in Russia, likely for use in Ukraine
3. North Korean Long-Range Self-Propelled Artillery Appears In Russia
4. Why North Korea’s Artillery Threat Should Not Be Exaggerated
5. North Korean long-range artillery systems spotted in Russia
6. North Korean elites will ensure their sons aren’t dispatched to Russia: Defector
7. Half of South Koreans think Trump return will negatively impact North Korea ties
8. Record Number of High-Level UN Meetings Devoted to North Korean Human Rights in 2024
9. N. Korean leader 'sensitive' to int'l human rights pressure: ex-N. Korean diplomat
10. Yoon says military cooperation between N. Korea, Russia aimed at maintaining leaders' power
11. Building a New U.S.-Korea Technology Alliance: Strategies and Policies in an Entangled World
12. Yoon, China's Xi to hold 1st summit in 2 years on sidelines of APEC in Peru
13. Ex-Trump envoy on N. Korea says Kim Jong-un won't negotiate denuclearization
14. N. Korea launches major crackdown on Chinese phones along border
15. N. Korean flood victims seek shelter as housing promises fall short
16. US may have difficulty in proposing talks to NK amid enhanced threats: Seoul official
1. North Korea Shows Its Drone Capabilities With Explosive Exhibition
No surprise that KJU wants to increase drone capabilities. And no surprise that his systems resemble Russian ones. Most of north Korea's weapons are based on Russian design (except the 170mm Koksan guns I think). What the north Korean defense industry excels at is reverse engineering and reengineering designs and creating unique north Korean systems.
These systems will of course be used for warfighting if KJU miscalculates and attacks the South. But they also will likely be profitable in KJU's weapons proliferation operations. We should look for these in conflict zones in the Middle East and Africa.
North Korea Shows Its Drone Capabilities With Explosive Exhibition
Kim Jong Un wants to increase production of unmanned aerial vehicles, some of which resemble Russian models
https://www.wsj.com/world/north-korea-shows-its-drone-capabilities-with-explosive-exhibition-b799a8b2?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1
By Dasl Yoon
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Nov. 15, 2024 5:44 am ET
A photo provided by the North Korean government shows a vehicle that was destroyed during the tests. Photo: KCNA/Associated Press
SEOUL—Kim Jong Un oversaw a fiery exhibition of North Korea’s latest suicide drones, highlighting the military capabilities that could be honed by his country’s recent troop deployment to the Russian front lines with Ukraine where such aerial attacks are commonplace.
Kim, clad in a black leather jacket, rose from a beige-colored suede chair to watch the drones soar into the skies, Pyongyang’s state media reported Friday. One nosedived into a BMW sedan, and an X-wing drone, similar in build to a Russian model, catapulted into an armored tank.
Attack drones have played a crucial role in the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, with the unmanned vehicles conducting deadly attacks. They represent a relatively cheap and increasingly effective option for a cash-strapped nation like North Korea, given its technological gap with South Korea and the U.S.
Improving the regime’s limited drone capabilities has been high on Kim’s weapons wishlist. But concerns persist over Moscow’s ability to turn Pyongyang into another drone supplier or help the Kim regime advance its own lineup.
At the event Thursday, Kim, the 40-year-old dictator, demanded mass production of unmanned aerial vehicles. Drones have become an “essential requirement” for militaries around the world, he added. “It is easy to use them as a component of striking power,” he said.
Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin have fortified military bonds between the two countries over the past year or so. Moscow can offer weapons know-how that Pyongyang lacks. North Korea is sending munitions, missiles and troops to aid Putin’s war with Ukraine.
The tighter relationship has extended to drones. In August, South Korea’s military said it was analyzing whether North Korea may have modified attack drones that Putin gifted last year to Kim after their summit in Russia’s Far East. Earlier this week, the State Department said the roughly 10,000 North Korean soldiers deployed to Russia have been engaged in combat and drew attention to the training offered on drone operations on the front lines.
At the event Thursday, North Korea showcased at least three different drone models, according to military experts who reviewed the state-media photos.
A smaller fixed-wing drone rammed into the BMW while a larger X-wing model—which resembles the Ranchet 3 used by the Russians—crashed into the tank, said Yang Uk, a military expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a Seoul-based think tank. Another was a large “theater-level” drone that could deliver longer-range strikes.
It is likely that North Korea has made improvements to Russian drone designs to export the UAVs back to Russia, as they are being quickly consumed in the war in Ukraine, Yang said.
“There’s potential for North Korea to supply additional weapons to Russia if they begin mass producing attack drones,” he said.
Write to Dasl Yoon at dasl.yoon@wsj.com
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2. ‘Monstrous’ North Korean artillery spotted in Russia, likely for use in Ukraine
A comment from Dr. Bruce Bechtol who flagged this article for me. He has forgotten more about the Koksan guns than we will ever know.
This is new. These guns are nothing more than old Soviet coastal artillery (anti-ship) guns that the North Koreans put on T54/55 Tank chassis and then rolled down to the DMZ and pointed them south (the Russians/Soviets NEVER used them that way). They are "self-propelled" of course, and have a top speed of about 12 kilometers an hour (not kidding). Their greatest asset is their long-range (about 40 kilometers with standard ammunition). These are 170MM guns.
Another factor is that the NK's are probably supplying the ammunition for these things much like they have (and are) for the 152's/122's that are more commonly being used. Obviously they don't have nearly as many of these as they do the 152/122 systems. I would guess that the North Koreans are supplying the crews for these systems since the Russians do not use 170's as a self-propelled artillery system. But the advantage is that they can shoot from farther away (as long as they don't blow themselves up).
‘Monstrous’ North Korean artillery spotted in Russia, likely for use in Ukraine
Photos suggest DPRK is supplying M-1989 Koksan self-propelled guns for war effort, supplementing troop deployments
Anton Sokolin | Shreyas Reddy November 15, 2024
https://www.nknews.org/2024/11/monstrous-north-korean-artillery-spotted-in-russia-likely-for-use-in-ukraine/
M-1989 self-propelled guns roll through central Pyongyang during a military parade in 2017 | Image: NK News (April 2017)
A North Korean self-propelled gun has been spotted moving through central Russia, sparking concerns that Pyongyang is providing its most notorious long-range weapon to supplement troop deployments to fight against Ukraine.
Russian Telegram channel Voevoda Broadcasts (@ZOV_Voevoda) initially revealed a blurry and partial image of what appeared to be a North Korean-made 170mm “Koksan” self-propelled gun on Thursday.
“We have an ally who fulfills agreements, for which we are very grateful,” the channel stated, without providing any details about the weapon.
A zoomed out and unblurred photo that subsequently appeared on social media appeared to confirm the vehicles being transported by train were the M-1989 Koksan self-propelled guns and that they likely bore Korean markings.
Analysis of the buildings visible in the image also confirmed the weapon was being moved through the central Russian city of Krasnoyarsk.
Joost Oliemans, a North Korean weapons expert and the author of the book “The Armed Forces of North Korea,” told NK News the photograph showing the Koksan missile appears to be legitimate.
Designated the Chuch’ep’o (“Juche Gun”) by North Korean sources, the indigenously produced self-propelled gun is better known outside the DPRK as “Koksan” and comes in at least two variants, the M-1978 and M-1989, as identified by the U.S. military.
The Koksan gun rose in prominence after playing a key role during the Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988, with Pyongyang supplying Iran with what was the longest-ranging cannon-type artillery in the world at the time.
“The Armed Forces of North Korea” calls the “monstrous” M-1978 North Korea’s most famous self-propelled gun but notes that its origins remain uncertain. Analysis of its roots is further complicated by its 170mm caliber, which no known Soviet, Chinese or Western artillery uses for munitions, although the M-1989 bears some similarities to the Soviet 2S7 Pion gun.
An apparent M-1989 Koksan self-propelled gun being moved by train through Krasnoyarsk | Image: @bayraktar_1love via X (Nov. 14, 2024)
Open-source analysts on social media highlighted the Koksan’s similarity to Russia’s current stock of Pion self-propelled guns, and Oliemans stated that the new transfer could provide some much-needed assistance for Russian forces that are heavily reliant on artillery.
“The Russian 203mm Pion and Malka stocks have been badly depleted, which is probably why they’re bringing in the Koksans,” he said.
Shin Seung-ki, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, agreed that the self-propelled guns will help reinforce Russia’s long-range artillery arsenal, which has been “damaged and depleted after over two years of war.”
He added that transporting the weapons by rail and deploying them to the frontlines of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for actual operations will likely take at least two to three weeks.
Russian forces have allegedly been using North Korean munitions since last year, but Shin said Pyongyang will probably send its own artillery forces to operate the Koksan guns, which use shells of a unique caliber, now that it is deploying troops to the Ukraine war.
“From Russia’s point of view, North Korean artillery personnel are needed, as it is evident that effectiveness would increase if operated by skilled North Korean forces,” he said.
The Koksan transfers could also prove useful for the North Korean soldiers already deployed to Russia, according to Shuji Sue, a former member of the U.N. Panel of Experts that used to monitor DPRK sanctions.
“As the deployment of DPRK soldiers increases, the more they need their own equipment which they know how to use effectively,” he told NK News.
However, North Korean arms shipments to Russia violate multiple U.N. Security Council sanctions resolutions prohibiting such transfers as well as training and services associated with their use, the expert added.
DPRK artillery of various calibers have already contributed to Russia’s military operations, with Kyiv describing Pyongyang’s frequent munitions supplies as Ukrainian forces’ “worst problem.”
Challenges in the production of artillery barrels have compounded Russia’s diminishing reserves, but experts have previously told NK News that North Korea is well-positioned to provide a continuous supply of munitions for Moscow’s operations.
But Hyun-seung Lee, a North Korean defector who previously served in the KPA General Staff Department’s Combat Technique Research Institute, wrote on social media that the Koksan offers little benefit to Russia as it takes half an hour to prepare and makes for “an easy target in modern combat.”
“Kim Jong un is playing Putin for a fool, offloading outdated junk from North Korea’s arsenal,” he said. “The 170mm self-propelled artillery he’s sending is a relic — slow, weak and vulnerable.”
Edited by Bryan Betts
3.North Korean Long-Range Self-Propelled Artillery Appears In Russia
I will of course defer to the experts in north Korean weapons systems and order of battle, but I seem to recall there were problems with the Koksan guns such as the barrels cracking or something like that shortly after it sustained operation. But according to the report below they were extensively by the Iranians. And of course the buried lede is that north Korea has a long history of proliferating weapons to malign actors.
North Korean Long-Range Self-Propelled Artillery Appears In Russia
With North Korean troops now fighting Ukrainians and considering Russia’s massive appetite for artillery, the M1989 Koksan’s arrival makes sense.
Thomas Newdick
Posted 7 Hours Ago
186
twz.com · by Thomas Newdick
A photo has emerged showing examples of a North Korean-made self-propelled artillery system under transport in Russia, the clearest suggestion so far that Pyongyang is also now providing Moscow with these kinds of heavyweight, far-reaching artillery weapons for its war in Ukraine. That would hardly be a surprise at this point, with North Korea having supplied Russia with huge amounts of weaponry already, including millions of artillery rounds, as well as having committed to the deployment of thousands of troops for the conflict.
I was able to geolocate and thus confirm that the photo of North Korean M-1978/1989 Koksan 170mm SPGs was taken in Russia.
56.069386, 92.920244
Krasnoyarsk, central Russiahttps://t.co/BOaR44uLeS https://t.co/mC8solXVOv pic.twitter.com/LUHO2cllKZ
— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (BlueSky too) (@Archer83Able) November 14, 2024
The photo in question appeared on social media today, apparently first being posted to the Russian Telegram messaging app. It shows at least two examples of the 170mm M1989 Koksan self-propelled artillery units being transported on a flatbed railcar. Open-source intelligence analysts later geolocated this precisely to Krasnoyarsk, in central Russia. Notable is the fact the vehicles have white-painted roadwheels, a feature often seen on North Korean equipment during high-profile parades.
North Korea’s Koksan self-propelled artillery system was first fielded sometime in the late 1970s, as the M1978. The full Western designation indicates that it was first noted by intelligence agencies in 1978 in the city of Koksan.
An example of the original M1978 Koksan, in Iranian service. Siamak Ebrahimi/Tasnim News
The original M1978 is based on an adapted Type 59 tank, fitted with a 170mm caliber artillery cannon, mounted in an open superstructure, rather than a protected turret. The M1989 version, as seen in the photo from Krasnoyarsk, uses the same gun but mounted on a more modern chassis, similar in appearance to that used on Russia’s 2S7 Pion, a 203mm self-propelled artillery piece. The M1989 version also has onboard storage for 12 rounds of ammunition.
The main advantage of the M1978/M1989 is its long range, with the big 170mm gun assessed as capable of firing a standard shell to a range of around 25 miles, or a rocket-assisted shell to a range of 37 miles. For a long time, the weapon was judged to be the longest-range conventional artillery piece in North Korean service.
An M1989 Koksan on parade during North Korea Victory Day celebrations in July 2013. Stefan Krasowski/Wikimedia Commons Picasa
Downsides include no ability to carry the gun crew, who have to be transported separately, and the lack of any armored protection for the crew once the gun is set up and in operation. Also, the rate of fire is incredibly slow by modern standards, just two rounds every five minutes. The German-made PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer, also used by Ukraine, can fire 10 rounds per minute or a three-round burst in 10 seconds.
For Russia, there is also the issue that the M1989 uses 170mm ammunition, something that it doesn’t have in its own stocks, and which is, on a global scale, a relatively rare caliber. On the other hand, North Korea has plenty of ammunition that it could potentially supply.
It’s worth noting, too, that the M1978/M1989 is very much a known quantity to Western analysts. The weapon was exported to Iran and employed extensively in the Iran-Iraq War, some examples being captured and used by Iraq. The 2003 invasion of Iraq provided the U.S. military a chance to look at some of these weapons at close quarters.
A former Iranian M1978 Koksan captured by U.S. Marines in Ramadi, Iraq, in November 2008. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Albert F. Hunt/Released LCpl Albert F. Hunt
We don’t know for sure at this point why the M1989 Koksan guns were in Russia, but there are several possible explanations.
They could be in Russia for test purposes, or even some kind of maneuvers involving North Korean troops.
Perhaps most likely, the guns could be headed to Ukraine, where Russia will use them to bolster its own self-propelled artillery units.
Finally, bearing in mind the increasing involvement of North Korean troops fighting for Russia, these weapons could also be headed to Ukraine, or the Kursk region of Russia, for use by Pyongyang’s own forces.
North Korea has huge quantities of Koksan and other large-caliber artillery, and Russia has been burning through its own stocks of such weapons, with questions about its war industry’s ability to replace them with the required urgency. You can read more about the major types of artillery that Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine here.
A destroyed Russian 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer is seen in Siversk, Ukraine, close to the front line, in March 2023. Photo by Marek M. Berezowski/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images Anadolu
There are also more than enough precedents for Russia wanting to acquire heavy weapons from North Korea, with long-range ones being of particular value. According to data from the Oryx open-source tracking group, at least 851 pieces of Russian self-propelled artillery have been destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured. The actual number is likely far higher as Oryx only tabulates losses that are visually confirmed using open-source materials.
Already, Pyongyang’s support for Moscow’s war in Ukraine has seen the supply of a diverse range of weapons, including millions of badly needed artillery rounds and various kinds of other ammunition.
A recent assessment from the South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS), based on intelligence provided by the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR), listed North Korean weapons collected from the battlefield, including claimed “122mm and 152mm shells, Bulsae-4 anti-tank missiles, short-range ballistic missiles such as the KN-23, and RPG anti-tank rockets.”
A fragment from a North Korean-made KN-23 missile during a briefing after a Russian attack on Kharkiv, on March 14, 2024. Photo by Denys Glushko /Gwara Media/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images Head of the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office Oleksandr Filchakov holds the wreckage of a North Korean missile during a briefing dedicated to the Russian shelling of Kharkiv by North Korean missiles in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on March 14, 2024. Photo by Denys Glushko /Gwara Media/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images
“Considering the size of containers loaded on cargo ships traveling between North Korea and Russia, it appears that a total of more than eight million 122mm and 152mm shells have been provided to Russia so far,” the NIS concluded.
Most recently, TWZ looked at claims that Russia may also have received North Korean Type 73 machine guns, although these could also be used by the thousands of troops that Pyongyang has now deployed to Ukraine.
Photos circulating on telegram this afternoon, of North Korean Type 73s said to be in Russia (the EMR trousers leg supports that). Various posts claiming A. Brought along with the DPRK troops sent to Russia. B. Provided to Russia by DPRK. Also possibly taken during past exercise. pic.twitter.com/9npC5N8WX7
— Matthew Moss | Historical Firearms (@historicfirearm) November 7, 2024
As a result of the deepening military relationship between the two countries, there has also been speculation that North Korea could be set to benefit from Russian weapons and expertise. As well as suggestions that Pyongyang might receive new Russian combat aircraft to overhaul its badly aging air force, there have also been concerns that Moscow might provide it with technologies to help accelerate its nuclear and long-range ballistic missile programs.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the KnAAPO aircraft factory in the Russian Far East, accompanied by Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade, Denis Manturov (third from right), on September 15, 2023. Photo by Gov of Khabarovsk Reg/M. Degtyaryov/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
We may not have to wait long to see who ends up using the M1989 Koksan self-propelled artillery units in Ukraine — if indeed that’s where they’re headed. If they do end up at the front, whether used by Russian or North Korean forces, it would be bad news for Ukraine, which is already at a large artillery deficit compared to Russia.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com
twz.com · by Thomas Newdick
4. Why North Korea’s Artillery Threat Should Not Be Exaggerated
The experts on north Korean weapons and order of battle will criticize me for this comment. But in the 1990's when we were revising one of the many iterations of the war plans someone made the comment describing the nKPA tactical center of gravity as its artillery and he said that the nKPA, with its massive emphasis on artillery, is an "artillery army supported by a scheme of maneuver." This of course differs from traditional warfighting concepts of using artillery (fires) to support maneuver.
That said, this is some interesting analysis of the poor quality of north Korean weapons systems, though we should never forget Stalin's dictum, quantity has a quality all its own.
But are north Korean drones really a bigger threat?
And as I understand it, artillery is still the biggest killer on the battlefield in Putin's war in Ukraine.
Why North Korea’s Artillery Threat Should Not Be Exaggerated - Modern War Institute
mwi.westpoint.edu · by Ju Hyung Kim · November 15, 2024
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North Korean artillery has been considered a serious threat to Seoul for decades due to its extensive deployment along the DMZ—the demilitarized zone that has been in place since the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement. The origins of this threat can be traced back to the 1990s, when North Kora began prioritizing the positioning of long-range artillery and rocket systems capable of striking the South Korean capital. The perennial threat of turning Seoul into a “sea of fire” has long burdened US and South Korean policymakers, who have grappled with the challenge of managing this risk while avoiding escalation on the Korean Peninsula. The estimated casualties that North Korean artillery could inflict on South Korea range from approximately 4,500 to over 200,000, depending on the scale and duration of the bombardment. Pyongyang has leveraged Seoul’s apparent vulnerability through brinkmanship diplomacy, extracting concessions by threatening artillery strikes on the south. However, is North Korea’s artillery capability truly the existential threat it’s often portrayed to be? According to my research, it is not. While North Korea’s artillery remains a factor, it should not be exaggerated. In fact, there are more immediate threats that US and South Korean policymakers should focus on to ensure national security and the overall credibility of US extended deterrence.
To evaluate the potential impact of North Korean artillery in a full-scale conflict, I have used the 2010 Yeonpyeong Island shelling incident—one of the most significant military confrontations since the Korean War, in which North Korea bombarded the South Korean island, resulting in four deaths and heightened tensions—as a key reference point. In that incident, North Korea launched approximately four hundred rounds, with only eighty reaching their intended targets and 320 falling into the sea. Of the eighty rounds that landed, twenty failed to detonate. This means that only about 15 percent of the rounds successfully hit their targets and detonated as intended. Notably, this attack was carried out by North Korea’s elite artillery units, using some of their best-maintained munitions. However, due to inadequate storage conditions and a lack of humidity control caused by electricity shortages, the performance of these munitions was likely compromised. This raises serious doubts about the overall reliability of North Korean artillery in a full-scale conflict, even when operated by the most capable forces.
By extrapolating insights from the Yeonpyeong Island shelling incident to a larger scenario involving North Korea’s 170-millimeter self-propelled artillery and 240-millimeter multiple-launch rocket systems stationed near the DMZ, we can better understand the potential threat to Seoul. While North Korea is estimated to have around 8,500 field artillery pieces and 5,100 multiple-launch rocket systems, only about one hundred 170-millimeter self-propelled guns and two hundred 240-millimeter multiple-launch rocket systems are positioned within range to directly target the South Korean capital. Based on this, the following outcomes can be reasonably expected. In a worst-case scenario, the 170-millimeter artillery could fire approximately one hundred shells, while the 240-millimeter rocket launchers might launch around 4,400 rockets in an initial strike on Seoul. However, the likelihood of a second volley is extremely low, as South Korean air forces would seek to neutralize the North Korean artillery after the first barrage is released. Based on the statistics from the Yeonpyeong shelling incident, approximately forty-three artillery rounds and 1,870 rockets would reach Seoul. Considering Seoul’s vast area of 605 square kilometers and the lethal blast radii for the two weapons—fifty meters for 170-millimeter artillery and seventy meters for 240-millimeter rockets—the maximum total affected area of 29.12 square kilometers, including nonresidential zones such as fields, amounts to 4.8 percent of the city. Given that a portion of the shells that land would be duds, the actual exploded shells would impact less than 4.8 percent of Seoul’s area. Furthermore, as demonstrated during the Yeonpyeong bombardment, North Korean artillery has difficulty penetrating concrete structures. With most buildings in Seoul constructed from reinforced concrete, damage would be minimal, particularly if civilians take shelter indoors. Considering the likely further deterioration of North Korean munitions over time, the actual threat posed to Seoul is probably even lower. In short, the prospect of Seoul becoming a “sea of fire” is extremely unlikely.
A more immediate threat is posed by North Korea’s unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), as demonstrated in the 2022 North Korean UAV airspace intrusion incident, in which five North Korean UAVs entered South Korean airspace, evading interception despite the deployment of superior South Korean air assets. These UAVs, if deployed to target critical infrastructure such as power grids, nuclear reactors, or airfields, could cause significant disruptions. The failure to intercept these UAVs highlights the growing need for the United States and South Korea to focus on bolstering defenses against North Korean UAVs, which present a more pressing and realistic danger than artillery.
Another significant threat from North Korea is its advancing missile and nuclear capabilities. Should Pyongyang successfully miniaturize nuclear warheads and develop multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle technology, it could undermine the credibility of the United States’ extended deterrence in the region. By doing so, North Korea could escalate its brinkmanship diplomacy, weakening the US-ROK alliance and sowing doubts about the US commitment to defend South Korea. To counter this, the United States and South Korea must establish clear red lines for North Korean behavior and ensure that Pyongyang understands that any nuclear aggression will result in a decisive response. The recently signed Trilateral Security Cooperation Framework between the United States, Japan, and South Korea provides a platform to reinforce these deterrent measures.
In light of the above points, US and South Korean policymakers should reevaluate the actual threat posed by North Korean artillery. While it is important not to be complacent, it is equally critical not to overestimate North Korea’s artillery capabilities. Instead, focus should shift toward addressing more immediate threats, such as North Korean UAVs breaching South Korean airspace and the diminishing credibility of the United States’ extended deterrence in light of North Korea’s advancing missile and nuclear capabilities. By prioritizing these areas, the United States and South Korea can maintain a more balanced and effective defense strategy, avoiding policy distortions caused by North Korea’s use of artillery threats to hold Seoul hostage, while addressing the genuine risks that undermine regional stability.
Dr. Ju Hyung Kim is a defense analyst at a South Korean defense think tank and is currently in the process of transforming his doctoral dissertation, titled “Japan’s Security Contribution to South Korea, 1950 to 2023,” into a book.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.
Image credit: Stefan Krasawski
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mwi.westpoint.edu · by Ju Hyung Kim · November 15, 2024
5. North Korean long-range artillery systems spotted in Russia
Circular reporting.
North Korean long-range artillery systems spotted in Russia
defence-blog.com · November 14, 2024
NewsArmy
Nov 14, 2024
Modified date: Nov 14, 2024
Photos of North Korean long-range artillery systems arriving in Russia have emerged on Russian social media, sparking fresh discussions over recent military collaboration between Pyongyang and Moscow.
The images reportedly show the 170-mm M1989 “Koksan” self-propelled artillery unit being transported through Russian territory.
The M1989 “Koksan”—named after the city where it was first observed—is a heavy artillery system known for its long-range capabilities. The weapon system was first developed by North Korea in the 1980s, and its western designation, “M1989,” references the year it first appeared publicly.
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Information about the M1989 remains limited, but it is known to consist of a 170-mm gun mounted on a turret, placed on a modified tank chassis—typically derived from T-54, T-62, or Chinese Type 59 tanks. The artillery system has two primary versions: the M1979, which lacks an onboard ammunition storage system and is mounted on a T-54 or Type 59 chassis, and the M1989 model, which includes onboard storage for 12 rounds of ammunition and a protective cabin for the crew.
North Korean M-1989 Koksan self-propelled artillery
The M1989 “Koksan” boasts an effective firing range of up to 40 kilometers with conventional shells, and up to 60 kilometers with rocket-assisted projectiles, with a firing rate of one to two rounds every five minutes. The artillery’s extended reach and firepower have made it a formidable weapon in battlefield conditions.
Notably, the M1979 version of the “Koksan” was used during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), where it proved highly effective as a counter-battery weapon. The deployment of these artillery systems into Russia suggests a potential bolstering of Russian firepower amid ongoing military activities in Ukraine, as Russia continues to seek new sources of equipment and capabilities.
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Dylan Malyasov is the editor-in-chief of Defence Blog. He is a journalist, an accredited defense advisor, and a consultant. His background as a defense advisor and consultant adds a unique perspective to his journalistic endeavors, ensuring that his reporting is well-informed and authoritative. read more
defence-blog.com · November 14, 2024
6. North Korean elites will ensure their sons aren’t dispatched to Russia: Defector
Equality in the Socialist Workers Paradise?
North Korean elites will ensure their sons aren’t dispatched to Russia: Defector
Ex-DPRK diplomat says deployment unlikely to spark domestic backlash, as public fears retaliation fo voicing concern
https://www.nknews.org/2024/11/north-korean-elites-will-ensure-their-sons-arent-dispatched-to-russia-defector/
Ifang Bremer November 15, 2024
North Korean soldiers on the back of a truck | Image: Eric Lafforgue (2012)
North Korean elites will use their power to ensure the military does not deploy their sons to Russia, according to a former DPRK diplomat, arguing that the troop dispatch to fight Ukraine is unlikely to spark a backlash against the regime.
Ri Il Kyu, a former political counselor at the North Korean Embassy in Cuba, delivered his assessment at an event in Seoul on Friday, amid speculation that sending troops to fight in a foreign war will trigger domestic expressions of discontent.
“Since these people have power, they know the size of the dispatched troops and which units are being sent,” he said. “So they will make sure their own children will not be sent to Russia.”
When it comes to the general public, the parents of soldiers deployed to fight for Russia “will be worried” after hearing about their children’s fate “by word of mouth,” the defector said at the event sponsored by Seoul’s unification ministry.
“But because of all the surveillance inside North Korea, [the parents] cannot express their worry because it will negatively affect their child in Russia.”
Ri is one of the highest-level defectors to resettle in South Korea in years, reportedly fleeing from his post in Cuba in Nov. 2023.
The defector’s comments come as the U.S. and South Korea have confirmed that North Korean forces have entered combat against Ukraine in Russia’s Kursk region.
Escapees have raised concerns about North Korea’s dispatch of troops, stating the soldiers likely have not been informed well about the nature of their deployment.
Some have even argued that mass casualties of DPRK soldiers could pose a propaganda problem for the regime, as it could struggle to justify the loss of life in a war that citizens may view as outside of the country’s core interests.
At Friday’s event, Ri also presented a batch of diplomatic cables that he took with him when he escaped, outlining how the North Korean government instructs its diplomats to contain international criticism on human rights violations in the DPRK.
Ri announced that more official documents he took with him will be made public at later stages, dubbing it the “North Korean version of WikiLeaks.”
Meanwhile, unification minister Kim Yung Ho said at the event that Ri’s cables “prove that human rights issues are the Achilles’ heel of the dictatorship and demonstrate that the efforts of our government and the international community to improve North Korean human rights are bearing fruit.”
In light of the upcoming change in U.S. administration, Kim added that he expects that “the newly inaugurated Trump administration will also show continued interest and support for North Korean human rights based on America’s traditional values of freedom and democracy.”
Joon Ha Park contributed reporting to this article. Edited by Bryan Betts
7. Half of South Koreans think Trump return will negatively impact North Korea ties
The best thing the President-elect could do would be to declare that it is vital US national interest to prevent war on the Korean peninsula. This is the essence of American First - US interests come first. We are not trying to prevent war just for the sake of our Korean ally but because of the damage war (or regime collapse) will do to US national security and prosperity. Framing our relations this way should also reassure our Korean allies because while we might abandon allies, we will not abandon US interests.
Half of South Koreans think Trump return will negatively impact North Korea ties
Poll also finds two-thirds support nuclear armament, amid doubts about president-elect’s commitment to Seoul’s defense
https://www.nknews.org/2024/11/half-of-south-koreans-think-trump-return-will-negatively-impact-north-korea-ties/
Joon Ha Park November 15, 2024
Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump shake hands at the first-ever U.S.-DPRK summit in Singapore. | Image: Dan Scavino Jr. (June 12, 2018)
Half of South Koreans believe Donald Trump’s return to the White House will negatively impact ROK national security and relations with North Korea, according to a new survey released Friday.
The Gallup Korea public opinion poll conducted from Nov. 12 to 14 with 1,002 voters nationwide also found that two-thirds of respondents support South Korea developing nuclear weapons, amid concerns about the president-elect’s commitment to defending the U.S. ally against DPRK threats.
Only 30% of respondents anticipated Trump’s election will have a “positive impact” on inter-Korean ties, while 50% expect a “negative impact” and the rest answered no impact (11%) or withheld judgment.
Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), told NK News the results highlight South Koreans’ concerns that Trump might tolerate North Korea’s nuclear program if it aligns with U.S. interests.
“South Koreans increasingly view the U.S. alliance as a means rather than an end. ‘Trumpism’ has underscored the limitations of alliances, a reality well understood in South Korea,” he said.
Experts told NK News that Trump could reduce the U.S. military presence in South Korea, downplay the role of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) and scale back joint military exercises unless Seoul pays more to host U.S. troops, despite the recent signing of a new cost-sharing agreement.
Despite Pyongyang’s missile tests and military support to Russia, the poll showed most South Koreans continue to favor diplomacy with North Korea.
The results showed 69% support for diplomatic efforts to address North Korean nuclear and missile threats, while 25% said they believe a military approach is necessary. Support for diplomacy spanned most demographics, though around 40% of conservative respondents favored military options.
Cho noted that many South Koreans recognize the challenges of confronting a nuclear-armed North Korea without possessing nuclear weapons of their own.
“Lacking nuclear capability and full confidence in U.S. deterrence, it’s natural for South Koreans to lean toward diplomacy,” the expert said.
NUCLEAR ARMAMENT
When presented with a binary choice between support or opposing nuclear armament, 66% of respondents said Seoul should acquire nuclear weapons, while 30% opposed.
The report noted that support crossed political lines, with 81% of conservative People Power Party supporters and 60% of liberal Democratic Party backers endorsing the idea. Even among those preferring diplomatic solutions with North Korea, 59% backed nuclear armament in the Gallup Korea poll
However, Gallup Korea’s yes-or-no question notably differed from other recent polls that have included various scenarios and emphasized possible repercussions of nuclear development.
Cho noted that support for acquiring nuclear weapons fluctuates significantly depending on how the question is framed.
An annual survey by the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) released this year found that when asked to choose between relying on U.S. troops or developing nuclear weapons, 44.5% favored nuclear armament compared to 40% preferring the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea.
This marked the first time nuclear weapons outpolled USFK in the decade-long survey’s history, up from 33.5% support in 2023.
However, when not presented with a binary choice, South Koreans overwhelmingly endorsed the U.S. military presence, with 90% stating the alliance is necessary and over 85% supporting American troops on the peninsula.
Talk of South Korean nuclear weapons armament has surged in recent years, with President Yoon Suk-yeol even broaching the possibility in Jan. 2023.
Discussion appeared to die down after the U.S. and South Korea agreed to establish the Nuclear Consultative Group on joint nuclear planning and execution in April 2023.
But the issue has continued to resurface in Seoul’s political circles, with prominent conservative leaders renewing their calls for South Korea to develop nuclear weapons following Trump’s election win, arguing Seoul can no longer depend on Washington for security against North Korean threats.
Edited by Bryan Betts
8. Record Number of High-Level UN Meetings Devoted to North Korean Human Rights in 2024
Excerpts:
Conclusion
Every year since 2004, the UN General Assembly has annually discussed human rights abuses in North Korea. These regular discussions in the General Assembly each October, as well as similar discussions annually in Geneva at the UN Human Rights Council in the early spring, provide an opportunity to focus attention on North Korea and urge improvement in its human rights. The annual discussion with the special rapporteur in October at the UN General Assembly further emphasizes North Korea’s human rights problems. This year, we saw an additional high-level discussion in the Security Council in June, as well as North Korea’s UPR in November. North Korea’s abuse of its citizens’ human rights received well-deserved attention.
We have not seen a dramatic breakthrough in progress on human rights as a result of UN actions, just as we have not seen such a breakthrough in limiting or reversing North Korea’s development and testing of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. But it is important that the international community continues to press North Korea on these issues. November 9 of this year marks the 35th anniversary of the dismantling of the Berlin Wall. It took decades of ongoing effort to see that happen. The international community should continue such an effort to press North Korea on human rights with the hope that North Korea can be moved in a more humane direction.
Record Number of High-Level UN Meetings Devoted to North Korean Human Rights in 2024
Published November 14, 2024
Author: Robert King
Category: North Korea
https://keia.org/the-peninsula/record-number-of-high-level-un-meetings-devoted-to-north-korean-human-rights-in-2024/
North Korea’s human rights violations have been a priority of UN organizations since 2004, when the UN Human Rights Council first appointed a UN Special Rapporteur to report annually on the issue to the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly. This focus on North Korea’s human rights violations has been in addition to the serious and frequent attention the United Nations has given to the country’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs over the last two decades.
While North Korea has been a major problem for the United Nations, South Korea has played a leading role in the organization. South Korea is currently serving its third two-year term as one of the ten non-permanent UN member countries elected to membership on the Security Council. At the United Nations, North Korea remains an international rogue. Pyongyang has been a frequent high-level problem of international concern as a threat to international peace and security for its nuclear program, as well as its frequently criticized abusive human rights record. North Korea has never served as a member of the UN Security Council, and North Korean diplomats and experts have only served in lower-level, less-sensitive UN staff positions.
As North Korea’s human rights practices are highly criticized in the United Nations and elsewhere, the country has not helped its image by sending a significant number of troops, as well as weapons and ammunition, to support Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. The UN Security Council held discussions on North Korean military support for Russia, and North Korean diplomats have participated in the meeting, although North Korea is not a Security Council member but it is an involved party with Russia in Ukraine.
Kim Jong-un Gives Careful Attention to UN Human Rights Criticism
Some have suggested that North Korea ignores UN actions critical of its human rights record, but recently leaked North Korean diplomatic cables suggest Kim Jong-un takes a personal interest in UN scrutiny and criticism of North Korea for its egregious human rights abuses. Ri Il-guy, a former North Korean diplomat and former deputy chief of mission at North Korea’s embassy in Havana, Cuba, recently defected to South Korea and gave South Korean officials a trove of secret North Korean diplomatic cables on sensitive topics. Key information from 12 of the leaked cables was publicly released by the ROK Ministry of Unification on November 12.
The Unification Ministry described Pyongyang’s concern about human rights discussions at the United Nations: “The cables reveal instructions issued by North Korea’s Foreign Ministry before and after discussions on North Korean human rights at the UN, including sessions at the Human Rights Council, General Assembly, and UPR (Universal Periodic Review) and include reports from North Korea’s missions in Geneva and at the UN [in New York] detailing the outcomes of these discussions.” The Unification Ministry concluded that the leaked documents indicated the North Korean leader’s “high interest in Western Discussions on North Korean human rights, including issuing direct instructions” from Kim to North Korean diplomats.
One cable titled “Human Rights Activity” and dated November 1, 2016, from the DPRK Ministry of Foreign Affairs directed North Korean diplomats at the UN headquarters in New York to reject completely and emphatically the draft resolution by the UN General Assembly that criticized North Korea on its human rights record. The delegation was told to walk out of the proceedings after denouncing them.
It so happened that I attended that particular UN meeting in November 2016. I was sitting next to Ambassador Samantha Powers, US permanent representative to the United Nations, on the dais at the front of the UN committee room. When the initial presentation was completed by the UN special rapporteur on human rights in North Korea, the North Korean delegate insisted on being the first speaker to respond. He gave a long and impassioned denunciation of the resolution being considered. At the end of his statement, he demonstrably stood up and walked out of the meeting room with great flourish. Now that we have seen the text of Kim’s directive, I can confirm that the North Korean diplomats meticulously followed his instructions. At the same time, however, North Korea has played such a secondary role in the United Nations that most delegates gave the walk-out little attention.
North Korean Human Rights Are a Frequent UN Topic in 2024
UN institutions have given significant attention to human rights abuse in North Korea throughout the year. UN actions clearly indicate that the international focus on the Kim regime’s egregious human rights violations remains strong, and the effort to press the regime on human rights will continue.
UN Human Rights Council. In April 2024, the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva devoted a full session to North Korean human rights violations in an interactive dialogue with Elizabeth Salmón, the UN special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the DPRK since 2022. The session marked the tenth anniversary of the publication of the UN Commission of Inquiry report on human rights violations by North Korea, which was released and widely circulated and discussed in 2014.
Earlier this spring, Professor Salmón called for accountability measures from North Korea. Following an open discussion that included responses from the special rapporteur, the Human Rights Council adopted a resolution extending the mandate of the special rapporteur to ensure continued monitoring of human rights abuses in North Korea. The resolution also requested that the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights prepare an updated comprehensive report on human rights in North Korea in the decade since the Commission of Inquiry report was published in 2014.
UN Security Council. In June 2024, the UN Security Council devoted a meeting to North Korea’s human rights abuses as a threat to international peace and security. China and Russia, two of the five permanent members of the Security Council, opposed the discussion, but their demands failed because a permanent member’s veto does not apply to procedural votes, and the decision to hold the discussion was a procedural issue. Although the two permanent members voted against the agenda of the meeting, it was supported by the other three permanent members (France, Great Britain, and the United States) and seven of the ten elected council members.
In June 2024, South Korea’s UN Ambassador Joonkook Hwang held the rotating chairmanship of the Security Council. His role as chair served to highlight differences between Seoul and Pyongyang at the United Nations. South Korea is serving as a member of the Security Council from 2024 to 2025. Since North and South Korea were admitted to the United Nations in 1991, North Korea has never been elected to serve a two-year term as a member of the Security Council.
During a meeting on North Korean human rights, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk told the Security Council that North Korea has “a stifling, claustrophobic environment, where life is a daily struggle devoid of hope.” Türk added, “It is not possible to divorce the state of human rights in the DPRK from considerations around peace and security in the peninsula, including increasing militarization on the part of the DPRK.” He said North Koreans “are at risk of death for merely watching or sharing a foreign television program,” which he called a “particularly chilling example” of the repression of freedom of expression.
Another speaker at that session was Mr. Gumhyok Kim, a “representative of civil society” who was an official of one of the non-governmental human rights organizations involved with the United Nations. He left North Korea at the age of 19 in 2010 to study in Beijing. After using the internet in China, he learned “the horrific truth” about North Korea. He was taught in his homeland that North Koreans “had nothing to envy in the world,” but he found out that North Korea was a place where there “were political prison camps, death from starvation, public executions, and people risking their lives to escape.”
UN General Assembly. At the October 30 session of the General Assembly’s Third Committee, Professor Salmón reported on continuing human rights abuses within North Korea. Her report called for the development of accountability measures, including reparations by the North Korean regime to provide “a remedy when human rights are violated.” She called for efforts to “bring an end to serious violations of human rights obligations, such as enforced disappearance and torture upon repatriation.”
Based on the report and recommendations of Professor Salmón, General Assembly member countries circulated a draft resolution calling for specific actions from the North Korean government to improve human rights conditions. The resolution has broad support, and adoption by the General Assembly is expected in the next few weeks.
Universal Periodic Review. This year is also the fourth time in the last 20 years that North Korea is undergoing the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) process, under which the human rights conditions of all 193 UN member countries are discussed, criticized, and evaluated at the UN Human Rights Council. The process involves a formal self-evaluation by the country being reviewed, critique and comments from other UN member countries, and participation and evaluation by civil society groups. Because of the large number of UN member states, the review takes place for UN member countries every five years.
The UPR takes place at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva. The Human Rights Council devotes three-and-a-half hours to a plenary session of the council for a discussion on the human rights status of each UN member country. The meeting on North Korea took place on November 7. The self-evaluation document by the North Korean government reflects the official line on human rights: North Korea, “under the wise leadership of the great Workers’ Party of Korea, made remarkable achievements in its efforts to create conditions for people to fully enjoy their rights in all fields of politics, the economy and culture by adopting important policy, legislative and practical measures and providing scientific and effective guidance to the process of their implementation.”
The UPR report, prepared by the UN human rights staff, relies heavily on the work of the special rapporteur on DPRK human rights and input from the staff of the UN North Korea Human Rights Office in Seoul. These UPR reports are more critical. A third group of reports are submitted by non-government organizations (NGOs), and these are also critical of North Korea’s human rights practices, with some organizations giving particularly harsh critiques.
Conclusion
Every year since 2004, the UN General Assembly has annually discussed human rights abuses in North Korea. These regular discussions in the General Assembly each October, as well as similar discussions annually in Geneva at the UN Human Rights Council in the early spring, provide an opportunity to focus attention on North Korea and urge improvement in its human rights. The annual discussion with the special rapporteur in October at the UN General Assembly further emphasizes North Korea’s human rights problems. This year, we saw an additional high-level discussion in the Security Council in June, as well as North Korea’s UPR in November. North Korea’s abuse of its citizens’ human rights received well-deserved attention.
We have not seen a dramatic breakthrough in progress on human rights as a result of UN actions, just as we have not seen such a breakthrough in limiting or reversing North Korea’s development and testing of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. But it is important that the international community continues to press North Korea on these issues. November 9 of this year marks the 35th anniversary of the dismantling of the Berlin Wall. It took decades of ongoing effort to see that happen. The international community should continue such an effort to press North Korea on human rights with the hope that North Korea can be moved in a more humane direction.
Robert R. King is a Non-Resident Distinguished Fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI). He is former U.S. Special Envoy for North Korea Human Rights (2009-2017). The views expressed here are the author’s alone.
Photo capture from UN Web TV.
KEI is registered under the FARA as an agent of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, a public corporation established by the government of the Republic of Korea. Additional information is available at the Department of Justice, Washington, D.C.
9. N. Korean leader 'sensitive' to int'l human rights pressure: ex-N. Korean diplomat
This is a very important insight. We have long known this but most discount, dismiss, or deny this. It helps to justify why we need a human rights up front approach.
Talking about KJU's nuclear program reinforces his legitimacy and supports his domestic propaganda. Talking about human rights undermines his legitimacy and weakens his regime. Human rights and information are the paths to a free and unified Korea.
The ROK.US military is "ready to fight tonight". The Korean people must "prepare to unify today."
The new policy is simple:
The Korean people must solve the Korean question.
Kim can change and survive. Or Kim can be changed by the Korean people in the north.
N. Korean leader 'sensitive' to int'l human rights pressure: ex-N. Korean diplomat | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · November 15, 2024
SEOUL, Nov. 15 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is very "sensitive" to international pressure over his country's human rights situation because he knows suppressing the issue is crucial to retaining his hereditary power, a former North Korean diplomat said Friday.
Ri Il-gyu, a former counselor for political affairs at the North Korean Embassy in Cuba who defected to South Korea last year, made the point at a forum in Seoul on North Korea's human rights.
"Kim Jong-un thoroughly reviews and approves the strategy and logic the foreign ministry should use for human rights issues, as well as the extent to which they should respond," Ri said, claiming that Kim provides detailed instruction on the country's international handling of the issues.
He described the North Korean leader as "pretty sensitive" in responding to human rights issues, saying that "the reason is not because he has an interest in improving the situation, but because he knows retaining his dictatorship and the third hereditary power succession would be impossible without suppressing them."
In North Korea, not only the general public but those closest to the leader are often subject to serious human rights violations, he also claimed, calling on countries that defend the North Korean regime to pay sincere attention to improving the situation.
Ri Il-gyu, a former North Korean diplomat who defected to South Korea, speaks during a forum in Seoul on Nov. 15, 2024, in this photo provided by the unification ministry. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
pbr@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · November 15, 2024
10. Yoon says military cooperation between N. Korea, Russia aimed at maintaining leaders' power
Yes it is all about regime carnival. But we must keep in mind the second part of KJU's strategic equation. His long term survival depends on achieving domination of the Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
Yoon says military cooperation between N. Korea, Russia aimed at maintaining leaders' power | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 15, 2024
By Kim Eun-jung
LIMA, Nov. 15 (Yonhap) -- South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has said North Korea and Russia are "colluding" on military cooperation to maintain their leaders' grip on power, according to an interview published Friday.
Yoon, who is in Lima to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, made the remark in a written interview with Peruvian newspaper El Comercio, after Seoul's spy agency confirmed North Korean soldiers deployed to Russia's Kursk region on the western frontline have been engaging in combat against Ukrainian forces.
"The essence of Russia-North Korea military cooperation lies in the collusion between leaders to maintain their power," Yoon said, according to the translated remarks.
This screenshot of Peruvian newspaper El Comercio on Nov. 15, 2024, shows President Yoon Suk Yeol's interview during his trip to Peru to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
Yoon denounced North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's seeking to consolidate internal unity through nuclear and missile development to maintain his dictatorship, characterizing the Pyongyang regime as "an irrational group."
"We will never overlook the wrongful actions of Russia and North Korea that threaten our security," he said, pledging to coordinate with allies and partners, including the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
At the APEC summit, Yoon said he plans to deliver a message emphasizing international cooperation to create a fair, stable trade environment and support inclusive growth through innovation and digital technologies.
Yoon also expressed a desire to deepen bilateral ties with Peru, particularly in defense industry cooperation, highlighting a South Korean company's selection as a partner for the Peruvian Navy's projects earlier this year.
"Through this, we will be able to contribute further to strengthening Peru's military capabilities," he said.
On Saturday, Yoon is scheduled to hold a summit with Peruvian President Dina Boluarte and attend a ceremony to sign the nameplate of a vessel being built by a South Korean company at a shipyard in Peru.
ejkim@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 15, 2024
11. Building a New U.S.-Korea Technology Alliance: Strategies and Policies in an Entangled World
The 50 page report can be downloaded here: https://carnegie-production-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/static/files/2024-Lee%20-%20US%20ROK%20Tech%20Alliance_final.pdf
Building a New U.S.-Korea Technology Alliance: Strategies and Policies in an Entangled World
As the United States and the ROK prepare to celebrate the seventy-fifth anniversary of their security and defense alliance in 2025, forging a durable technology alliance is going to become an increasingly critical element of their cooperation
by Chung Min Lee
Published on November 13, 2024
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/11/building-a-new-us-korea-technology-alliance-strategies-and-policies-in-an-entangled-world?lang=en
Summary
South Korea lies on the fault line of the U.S.-China divide. This report focuses on three key aspects of this geopolitical situation. First, it explores how the Republic of Korea (ROK), also known as South Korea, can make key contributions as a “critical technology wingman” of the United States and the potential benefits of such an arrangement for both sides. Second, it delves into how America’s Asian allies are coping with the growing dilemma of wishing to reduce their dependence on the Chinese market but being unable or unwilling to decouple from China due to its immense economic potential even as these U.S. partners seek to strengthen their security and defense ties with the United States. Third, the report examines how the United States and the ROK can forge and sustain a robust technology alliance in a way that acknowledges the leading role that the private sector will play in making more resilient and secure supply chains.
When the second Donald Trump administration comes into office in January 2025, one of the most important strategies it must lay out is a comprehensive high-tech policy that includes unparalleled cooperation with capable allies amid intensified U.S.-China competition. But operationalizing such a policy is going to be increasingly difficult given that every U.S. treaty ally, and the United States itself, has enormous economic linkages with China. As Trump regains the White House, he is likely to stress why he thinks that China is ripping off the United States with trade deficits and that rich American allies (like South Korea) are supposedly reluctant to help cover shared defense costs. Arguably, one way to pursue Trump’s vision of a stout, self-interested U.S. posture on the world stage would be to harness the power of economically developed, technologically advanced, and militarily capable allies—such as South Korea, Japan, and Australia in the Western Pacific—as part of a regional coalition.
Major U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific face a host of critical security threats such as North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal, China’s increasingly aggressive posture, renewed defense cooperation between Russia and North Korea (such as the signing of a bilateral defense agreement in June 2024 and North Korean troops being sent to fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine), and the possibility of a major crisis or conflict in the Taiwan Strait. And on top of such security risks, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and other U.S. allies now are contending with equally salient economic and technology security challenges that has placed leading South Korean tech firms such as Samsung, Hyundai, SK Hynix, and LG at the forefront of building more resilient supply chains and beefing up technological cooperation with the United States.
As China’s own high-tech capabilities grow in response to more stringent U.S. export controls and tariffs, South Korea must confront a China that is the world’s number two economic superpower, Asia’s most powerful military, and (increasingly) a technological innovator to be reckoned with. While siding with the United States on critical technologies leaves South Korea open to Chinese political pressure and industrial espionage against South Korean government entities and major firms, the ROK would only have marginal leverage against China without a security, economic, and technological alliance with the United States.
As the United States and the ROK prepare to celebrate the seventy-fifth anniversary of their security and defense alliance in 2025, forging a durable technology alliance is going to become an increasingly critical element of their cooperation. How this technology alliance evolves will depend on a range of factors such as the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election; the trajectory of U.S.-China strategic competition; and a host of technological factors including the pace of innovation in sectors like artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, unmanned and autonomous weapons systems, nuclear fusion, and new materials. And while an enormous power gap will continue to exist between South Korea and the United States, the ROK has emerged as one of Washington’s most important niche technology partners.
12. Yoon, China's Xi to hold 1st summit in 2 years on sidelines of APEC in Peru
(LEAD) Yoon, China's Xi to hold 1st summit in 2 years on sidelines of APEC in Peru | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 15, 2024
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details, comments from fourth para; ADDS photo)
By Kim Eun-jung
LIMA, Nov. 14 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol will hold a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru on Friday, the presidential office said Thursday (local time).
It will be their second summit since their first meeting in Indonesia in November 2022.
"The two leaders are expected to discuss various measures to facilitate economic cooperation, culture and people-to-people exchanges and share in-depth opinions on regional security issues, including matters on the Korean Peninsula," Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo said during a briefing in Lima.
President Yoon Suk Yeol (L) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their meeting in Bali, Indonesia, on Nov. 15, 2024. (Yonhap)
Among likely agenda items is North Korea's troop deployment to Russia in support of its war in Ukraine, which has caused concerns over broader security implications on the Korean Peninsula.
In an interview with Spanish news agency EFE on Thursday, Yoon said Seoul will continue maintaining "strategic dialogue" with China to encourage it to play a role in promoting regional stability.
Amid the closer alignment between Pyongyang and Moscow, Beijing recently included South Korea on the list of temporary visa waiver countries. Seoul welcomed the decision, voicing hope that the move will help further promote "friendly sentiment" between the two neighbors.
Yoon has also been pushing to hold bilateral talks with U.S. President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the APEC summit, according to his office.
On Friday, Yoon will also join a trilateral meeting with Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to further advance security cooperation by building on the momentum from the first-ever standalone summit held at Camp David in August 2023.
At the summit, the leaders are expected to discuss ways to ensure continuous development of the trilateral cooperation, including establishment of a trilateral cooperation secretariat, the official said.
The latest move comes amid rising uncertainty over potential shifts in the U.S. security policy brought by the impending return of former U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January.
Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo explains President Yoon Suk Yeol's plan to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit during a press briefing held in Lima, Peru, on Nov. 14, 2024 (local time). (Yonhap)
ejkim@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 15, 2024
13. Ex-Trump envoy on N. Korea says Kim Jong-un won't negotiate denuclearization
I fully concur with Ambassador Yun. Kim Jong Un will never negotiate away his nuclear weapons.
My thoughts based on the above assumption:
President-elect Trump did something during his first term that no president had done: “He gave it a shot.” He met Kim and he offered him a future. But it was Kim Jong Un who failed to appreciate the opportunity he had. Now in his second term President Trump has the opportunity to implement new elements of policy and strategy that have never before been attempted. These include a human rights upfront approach that keeps human rights on all agendas, a sophisticated and holistic information campaign, and the support of the Korean people's pursuit of a free and unified Korea. There are few pundits who see the opportunities that both President Yoon with his 8.15 Unification Doctrine and Kim Jong Un with his new hostile policy toward the South are providing to the U.S. and ROK/U.S alliance. It is time to recognize that the only path to denuclearization is through unification. Most importantly the prevention of war and nuclear use, and the long term outcome on the Korean peninsula are important to the national security and national prosperity of the U.S.
Kim can change. Or Kim can be changed by the Korean people in the north.
Koreans must solve the Korea question (the unnatural division of the peninsula) (Para 60 of the Armistice).
(LEAD) Ex-Trump envoy on N. Korea says Kim Jong-un won't negotiate denuclearization | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · November 15, 2024
(ATTN: UPDATES with more remarks in last 5 paras; ADDS photo)
By Park Boram
SEOUL, Nov. 15 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un won't negotiate denuclearization with the United States, as he has more powerful weapons and support from Russia, Joseph Yun, a former U.S. envoy on North Korea policy, said Friday, dismissing any chances for dialogue as a "non-starter."
Yun, who served as special representative for North Korea policy during the early phase of the first Donald Trump administration, made the remarks at a symposium co-hosted by Triforum and the Asiatic Research Institute, Korea University, discussing the global order in light of Trump's election to his second term.
Trump's return to the presidency has sparked speculation about his resuming personal diplomacy with Kim following their two landmark summits in Singapore and Vietnam.
Since the Hanoi summit ended without a deal in 2019, no dialogue has taken place between Washington and Pyongyang, including during the following Joe Biden administration.
Joseph Yun, former special representative for North Korea policy, speaks during a symposium in Seoul on Nov. 15, 2024. (Yonhap)
"In the absence of any deal, North Korea has become more threatening. Their weapons have become more powerful," Yun said, noting that now North Korea is no longer an isolated pariah, thanks to "the strongest possible support from Russia."
"We have to accept reality. There is no chance that North Korea will start any negotiation with anyone which (requires) upfront complete denuclearization. That's a non-starter," he noted.
Instead, the U.S. might need to start with "small steps," such as weapons reduction, freezing new technology and fostering some kind of engagement between South and North Korea, while building on agreements Trump already made with Kim in order to eventually seek denuclearization, he said.
"If I were, you want to make sure that Singapore agreement is still valid on both sides. ... Where the Trump administration left off, which is in Hanoi. Hanoi (dialogue), I think, if you just added pieces to it, could be made into a deal," Yun noted.
"We cannot jump to complete denuclearization. CVID (complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization) as we used to call it, I'm sorry, but it's kind of dead."
Drawing on North Korea's dispatch of troops to fight for Russia against Ukraine, Yun said the decision was a "very smart" move in securing money and weapons technology from Russia, effectively rendering international sanctions "out of the window."
In this file photo, U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un lock eyes during a meeting at the Panmunjom truce village along the inter-Korean border on June 30, 2019. (Yonhap)
At the forum, Robert O'Brien, former national security adviser to Trump during his first term, echoed Yun's assessment, saying that reaching a deal with North Korea "is not going to be easy."
"The best we can do is trying to assure our South Korean friends ... that the U.S. nuclear umbrella covers South Korea," he said.
O'Brien predicted that Trump's tariff plans in his second term wouldn't negatively affect South Korea, citing South Korean companies' investments and factories operating in the U.S.
During the campaign, Trump said, if reelected, he will impose a minimum 10 percent tariff on imported products and as high as 60 percent import tariffs on Chinese goods.
"I think South Korea is going to do very well," he said, adding Trump has "made it very clear that the countries that invest in America and that produce products from their factories in America are not going to be subject to the tariffs that he's talking about."
Robert O'Brien (on screen), former national security adviser to President-elect Donald Trump during his first presidency, speaks during a symposium in Seoul on Nov. 15, 2024. (Yonhap)
pbr@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · November 15, 2024
14. N. Korea launches major crackdown on Chinese phones along border
This capability is key to outside communication and economic activity to include remittances from the north Korean diaspora around the world.
N. Korea launches major crackdown on Chinese phones along border - Daily NK English
The regime’s large-scale crackdown on the use of Chinese phones is grim news for many North Koreans who fear their livelihood is in jeopardy
By Eun Seol - November 15, 2024
dailynk.com · by Eun Seol · November 15, 2024
Image: Daily NK
North Korean authorities have initiated a major crackdown on Chinese phone users in North Hamgyong province, deploying state security teams to Hoeryong to enforce the ban. The campaign appears aimed at stemming the flow of information across the Chinese border, where people have used Chinese phones to communicate with the outside world.
Hoeryong, a city on the border with China, is home to many people who use Chinese phones for business, either arranging imports or handling remittances from defectors in South Korea for commission.
The dozen or so enforcers sent by North Hamgyong province’s state security bureau will augment the state security agents already monitoring phone signals in Hoeryong to create a team of nearly 30 people who are policing the use of Chinese phones in the area.
The enforcers operate phone signal detectors at various times and locations to hunt down people using Chinese phones.
While dispatching the extra enforcement team, the provincial state security bureau stressed that the project’s goal is to eradicate the practice of delivering money from outside the country to people on the inside.
The North Korean authorities have outlawed the delivery of remittances from South Korea and China and consider that an act of espionage.
The arrival of the enforcement team from the provincial state security bureau is a source of anxiety for Chinese nationals in North Korea with Chinese bank accounts who earn commission on remittances.
The provincial state security bureau also declared that anybody who receives illegal funds from overseas or who engages in related activities will not be able to avoid legal consequences and that state security agents who fail to find offenders will be held accountable.
This last threat has galvanized state security agents to become even more vigilant in their hunt for users of Chinese phones.
Police join crackdown, sparking fear among border residents
In connection with that, Daily NK recently reported that the Hoeryong police department had ordered officers to intensify their search for users of Chinese phones, while offering the incentive of special promotions for police officers with high numbers of arrests.
“Not only state security officers but also police officers are beating the bushes to catch Chinese phone users. With so many state security agents on the case, people are very nervous they won’t be able to avoid detection,” the source said.
“In the past, there were certain spots where police officers and state security officers would use the phone signal detector, so all phone users needed to do was avoid those spots. But now, enforcers carry around portable phone signal detectors, so you never know when you might be caught.”
The regime’s large-scale crackdown on the use of Chinese phones is grim news for many North Koreans who fear their livelihood is in jeopardy.
“People who use Chinese mobile phones and facilitate remittances from overseas aren’t selling out their country — they’re just trying to make a living. Many people struggle to come to terms with why the government is making things so hard for them,” the source said.
North Hamgyong province’s state security bureau plans to continue its crackdown against Chinese phones with the help of the extra enforcement team through the end of the year.
Daily NK works with a network of sources in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. For security reasons, their identities remain anonymous.
Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
Read in Korean
dailynk.com · by Eun Seol · November 15, 2024
15. N. Korean flood victims seek shelter as housing promises fall short
Promises made. Promises NOT kept by Kim Jong un.
N. Korean flood victims seek shelter as housing promises fall short - Daily NK English
“Displaced people with a bit of means are leaving to find shared houses first, while those who can’t afford it are simply watching what the state does, hoping they will do something for them," a source told Daily NK
By Seon Hwa - November 15, 2024
dailynk.com · by Seon Hwa · November 15, 2024
North Korea’s Rodong Sinmun newspaper reported on Nov. 5 that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un once again visited the flood recovery zone in North Pyongan province the previous day and ordered that housing construction be completed at the highest standard by the ruling party’s plenary meeting in December. (Rodong Sinmun, News1)
North Korean flood victims in Sinuiju, initially promised swift housing reconstruction, are now abandoning their temporary shelters as hopes of moving into new homes by year’s end fade. Facing the onset of winter, displaced people have begun seeking heated cohabitation residences.
According to a source in North Pyongan province recently, flood victims who expected to move into new homes by the Oct. 10 Party Foundation Day had their hopes dashed when Kim Jong Un, during his Nov. 4 visit to recovery sites in Uiju and Sinuiju, pushed the completion deadline to December’s party meeting.
With plummeting temperatures and frequent autumn rains, people can no longer tolerate the cold and are uncertain whether they can move into new homes in December.
Though the authorities have housed vulnerable flood victims like the elderly, children, and pregnant women in public buildings and inns, many displaced residents still live in tents, according to the source. Even if homes are built by Kim’s December deadline, residents expect further delays as they would need to furnish the houses themselves, leading many to seek shared housing arrangements before winter intensifies.
However, some displaced people cannot leave the tents due to the cost of shared housing in the Sinuiju area and the high seasonal prices for winter supplies, the source said.
“You have to pay at least 20 kilograms of corn a month for a single room, and with the season changing, kindling — which you have to pay for yourself — is so expensive it costs as much to heat your home for the day as it does to eat,” he said. “So, moving into a shared home is inevitably a heavy burden on displaced people.”
He added: “Displaced people with a bit of means are leaving to find shared houses first, while those who can’t afford it are simply watching what the state does, hoping they will do something for them.”
Daily NK works with a network of sources in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. For security reasons, their identities remain anonymous.
Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
Read in Korean
dailynk.com · by Seon Hwa · November 15, 2024
16. US may have difficulty in proposing talks to NK amid enhanced threats: Seoul official
Kim will negotiate only when he believes he has had an advantage and if it will support his political warfare strategy.
US may have difficulty in proposing talks to NK amid enhanced threats: Seoul official
The Korea Times · November 15, 2024
Vice Unification Minister Kim Soo-kyung speaks during a conference at the Ministry of Unification Office of the Inter-Korean Dialogue in Jongno District, Seoul. Oct. 10. Yonhap
The United States may have difficulty in proposing dialogue to North Korea, given the North's advanced nuclear capabilities and security concerns raised by its troop deployment to Russia, a senior Seoul official said Friday.
Vice Unification Minister Kim Soo-kyung made the remarks at a program aired by state broadcaster KTV, amid speculation that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump may seek top-down diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during his second term.
"Many are turning their back to North Korea as the North has sent troops to Russia to support Moscow's war in Ukraine, posing a threat to (peace) in Europe and the world," Kim said. "For the U.S., it would be difficult to actively offer to meet with North Korea."
She also cited North Korea's continued advancement of its nuclear arsenal as a possible main hindrance for the U.S. in seeking denuclearization talks with Pyongyang.
"During the campaign, Trump said, if reelected, he would meet Kim Jong-un and well get along with him. But we need to watch the situation as his calculations (to deal with the North) could differ after taking office," Kim said.
Trump and Kim met three times during Trump's first term, including two rare summits in Singapore in 2018 and Vietnam in 2019. But the Hanoi summit ended without a deal in early 2019 due to a failure to narrow differences over the North's denuclearization steps and sanctions relief by Washington.
Kim, meanwhile, said the government is worried about Moscow's possible transfer of spy satellite-related technology to North Korea in return for Pyongyang's troop deployment to Russia.
South Korea's spy agency confirmed that North Korean soldiers have engaged in combat operations against the Ukrainian forces in Russia's western Kursk border region. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · November 15, 2024
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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