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Good Tuesday morning!
We hope you all had a nice extended weekend and a break from the markets, however, it's a new day and a new month and we are ready to go!
As mentioned last Friday, the markets continue to operate in a large trading range and in the S&P Cash, that range is still 5650 to 5560...almost a 100 point range. This push / pull between the buyers and sellers is still very present so status quo for now.
We do have some big events and economic data coming up this month so September should be very interesting!!! We have a jobs report this Friday morning, a huge AAPL event next Monday and of course the FED meeting on September 18th where the members led by J Powell will lower interest rates. There is a 100% chance that they lower rates and probabilities say there is a 67% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 44% chance of a 50 basis point cut (at the time of this writing) and that obviously can change between now and their decision. Basically what I am saying it there is going to continue to be wild volatility and swings in the markets so plan accordingly.
Futures are lower this morning on overnight inventory that is net short and we have already gotten close to our lower target areas in both the /ES & /NQ's. Question now is will the buyers step back in and support the markets or do sellers keep the pressure on today?
In the profile pic below you can see the large balance area we are still in and the targets for today. If buyers keep prices above 5630-5620, then price could move back towards 5646 then 5659.25. If price does actually move back up to the POC (Point of Control) then we could be seeing upper targets @ 5690-5700. If price gets below the lower targets of 5630-5620, then we could see further downside to 5594 then 5569.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's added Friday so still only 5699.50 way above and 21 untested points of control below current prices.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5690 - 5700
Key Levels: 5659.25 POC then 5653 - 5646 single prints from Friday
downside target is: 5630 - 5620
/NQ upside target is: 19,800 - 19,840
Key Level: 19,633.75 Friday's High then 19,579 Value Area High
downside target is : 19,520 - 19,470
/RTY upside target is: 2230 - 2240
downside target is: 2210 - 2200
Economic Data: Key Data Today!
Chicago PMI @ 9:45 AM EST
ISM Manufacturing @ 10:00 AM EST!
Construction Spending @ 10:00 AM EST
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
/ES - Demand $ $5635-5640 with Supply at then $5670 HOD
Bearish
1. Buyers trapped below $5637 and holding below after a pullback below $5635 looking to play SHORT targeting $5620 then $5595
Bullish
2. Sellers trapped above a pullback between $5640-45 looking to play long targeting $5660 then new HOD or if new HOD is pre market I want to see $5565 become Demand
SPY - Demand at $557-558 then below at $553 w / Supply at $562 -564
Bullish
1. Sellers trapped above $562 where Supply flips to Demand looking to play long from $563 targeting $564 than NEW HOD or a sell off holding above $557 I want to play a break and retest from $558 targeting $560 then $561
Bearish
2. Buyers trapped below $557 after a retest from $556 targeting $554 then new LOD $553
/NQ Key Demand at $19500-19540 then at $19430-60 with Supply $19685
Bullish
1. Sellers trapped above $19500 looking to play long from $19520-25 targeting $19600
Bearish
2. Buyers trapped below $19499 and holding , looking to play short targeting $19462
QQQ Key Demand at $469-470 with Supply at $478 -477
Bullish
1. Sellers trapped above $474 after a break from $475 I want to play long targeting $477 then $478 or if there is a sell off with a breakdown above $471 I want to play LONG
Bearish
2. Buyers trapped below $470 after a break and retest below $469 looking to play short targeting $467 then $465.50 or a breakout falling to form new demand above $477 I would like to play SHORT from KEY SUPPLY
TSLA Key Demand at $205-207 then at $211 with Supply at $215-215
Bullish
1. Sellers trapped above $210 looking to play long from $211 targeting $213 then $214
Bearish
2. Buyers trapped below $210 and holding forming new resistance I would like to play Short targeting $208 then $207. Below $207 leaves room to $205
AMD Key Demand at $143-144 with Supply above at $151-150
Bullish
1. Sellers trapped above $143 looking to play Long off a break and retest from $144 targeting $146 then $148
Bearish
2. Buyers trapped below $143 looking to play SHORT targeting $141 then $140
Have a great day!
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