 | Canada-U.S. Business Brief OCTOBER 29, 2026 |
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Latest Canada-U.S. business developments Changes to U.S. tariff coverage take effect October 30, creating an immediate customs-planning priority for cross-border businesses. This edition also examines the Bank of Canada rate increase and new estimates showing how higher aggregate tariff burdens coexist with largely tariff-free trade, alongside U.S. financing conditions, consumer demand and automotive developments. |
| | TOP STORIES IMPACTING CANADA-U.S. TRADE |
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Canada-United States / customs and tariffs U.S. changes Canadian goods subject to 50% duties October 30 An October 23 U.S. proclamation adds and removes specified Canadian products from additional 50% Section 338 duties for entries from 12:01 a.m. Eastern on October 30. The changes alter landed costs for affected cross-border shipments, with covered duties applying in addition to Section 232 tariffs. Why it matters: Match shipment classifications against both annexes with your customs broker before October 30 entries. |
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Canada / interest rates Bank of Canada raises rate 25 basis points to 2.5% The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.5% from 2.25% on October 28. The increase raises the benchmark for Canadian borrowing costs as businesses finance inventories, equipment and cross-border operations. Why it matters: Recalculate floating-rate financing costs and assess currency exposure in cross-border contracts. |
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Canada-United States / aggregate tariff exposure Bank estimates higher bilateral tariffs despite largely tariff-free trade The Bank of Canada estimates average U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods at 7.5%, versus 5.0% in July, and Canadian tariffs on U.S. goods at 3.9%, versus 1.5%, with about 80% of Canadian goods exports to the United States still tariff-free, based on measures announced through October 22. These aggregate estimates are not individual product rates, so concentrated sectoral exposure remains central to cross-border costing and sourcing decisions. Why it matters: Use product-specific duties in landed-cost models rather than applying the bilateral averages to individual shipments. |
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United States / interest rates Federal Reserve holds policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00% The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, citing strong activity and elevated inflation. The unchanged U.S. benchmark remains a financing reference for Canadian exporters and companies funding American operations. Why it matters: Compare borrowing and hedging assumptions separately for Canadian-dollar and U.S.-dollar obligations. |
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Canada / consumer demand Canadian retail sales rise 1.2% in August Canadian retail sales rose 1.2% to C$74.6 billion in August, with gains in all nine subsectors led by motor vehicle and parts dealers. The broad increase provides a demand indicator for American exporters, Canadian distributors and businesses serving consumers across the border. Why it matters: Compare the subsector results with your Canadian orders and inventory plans. |
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United States / consumer demand U.S. retail sales rise 0.8% in September U.S. retail and food services sales increased 0.8% in September to US$745.0 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis, without adjustment for price changes. The nominal spending measure provides Canadian exporters and cross-border distributors with a timely indicator of American consumer demand. Why it matters: Distinguish price changes from sales volumes when updating U.S. demand forecasts. |
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| | CUSBA CANADA-U.S. TRADE DASHBOARD |
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BILATERAL GOODS TRADE ▲ US$66.27B August 2026 | +5.1% vs. revised July; not seasonally adjusted Source | TRANSBORDER TRUCK FREIGHT ▲ 29.8% August 2026 vs. August 2025 | Canada + Mexico; value Source | NORTHERN-BORDER TRUCK ENTRIES ▼ 449,121 September 2026 | -1.2% year over year; entering the U.S. Source | CAD / USD ▲ US$0.7125 Per C$1 | October 28; up from US$0.7124 October 27 Source | U.S. IMPORTS FROM CANADA UNDER USMCA ▲ US$28.49B | U.S. MANUFACTURING OUTPUT ▲ 0.3% September 2026 vs. August | seasonally adjusted Source | U.S. MONTHLY FEDERAL DEFICIT ▼ US$26.9B September 2026 | down from US$166.8B in August Source | 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS CA 3.83% | U.S. 4.99% |
Source observations retrieved October 28. Reference periods vary by release schedule. ▲/▼ show the stated comparison, not whether a change is favourable. Truck entries aggregate Canadian-border ports; freight value includes both North American land borders. |
| | POLICY & REGULATORY WATCH |
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Ontario / proposed tax measures Ontario proposes immediate investment writeoffs and C$8 billion tax relief Ontario proposed investment writeoffs that it estimates would provide more than C$8 billion in provincial tax relief over five years if the required federal legislation passes. Immediate deductions for eligible assets would change the timing of investment tax relief for businesses comparing Canadian and American locations. Why it matters: Model eligible capital investments with tax advisers while accounting for the legislation dependency. |
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| | SUPPLY CHAIN, INFRASTRUCTURE & LOGISTICS |
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Canada-United States / trucking Roadrunner launches outbound Canada-U.S. less-than-truckload service Roadrunner launched its first outbound Canada-to-U.S. less-than-truckload service on October 23, connecting Canadian shippers with more than 40 American metropolitan areas. The expansion adds a cross-border shipping option for businesses moving smaller freight loads into American markets. Why it matters: Compare lane coverage and quotes, including the 5.9% increase to specified base rates effective November 2. |
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Canada / port and rail infrastructure Canada commits up to C$254 million to Saint John corridor Canada announced up to C$254 million for Saint John Trade Corridor improvements, including warehouses, marine works and a new customs examination facility. The upgrades are intended to strengthen north-south trade links and give shippers additional routing options when other gateways face disruption. Why it matters: Assess Saint John’s port and rail connections as part of longer-term routing plans. |
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Canada-United States / automotive trade Honda warns of damage from threatened Canadian auto tariff increase Honda warned that a threatened increase in U.S. tariffs on Canadian vehicles and parts from 25% to 50% would damage the automotive industry. The warning highlights the exposure of integrated Michigan-Ontario suppliers and assembly operations to a further increase in border costs. Why it matters: Stress-test supply contracts and margins against a potential increase in automotive tariffs. |
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Michigan-Ontario / automotive manufacturing Ford raises earnings outlook and reports Oakville production progress Ford reported third-quarter adjusted operating earnings of US$2.7 billion, up 3%, and narrowed its 2026 guidance to US$10.5 billion-US$11 billion while reporting new Super Duty capacity at Oakville. The Ontario production update and earnings outlook give cross-border automotive suppliers concrete signals for customer and capacity planning. Why it matters: Align supplier discussions with Ford production requirements and distinguish company forecasts from committed orders. |
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Save the Date! 15th Annual Cross-Border Economic Forecast Luncheon Date: Thursday, February 11, 2027
Time: 11:30 a.m. to 2 p.m. Venue and registration details to follow. |
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CUSBA Membership for 2026 CUSBA provides insight, access, and dialogue for organizations operating across the Canada-U.S. border. Membership connects organizations with timely cross-border intelligence, business relationships, events and opportunities to share expertise. |
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