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Weekly Analyst Review

27 July 2022

 

Bottom Line Up Front

Since TRAC's last update on the current climate in Nigeria with the expansion of Islamic State West Africa (ISWA /ISWAP), the situation has become worse. TRAC posits that Abuja is under an imminent threat.


Overnight, Nigerian residents of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) have been circulating warnings on social media about a heavy firefight between unknown elements in the early hours of the morning. There were two reported incidents; the first at Minister’s Hill in the Maitama area of Abuja, FCT and the second at Dantata Bridge, Abuja, FCT, Nigeria.

These heavy firefights come on the heels of an active five days in and around Abuja.


On 22 July 2022, local sources claimed that "unknown gunmen" targeted the Zuma community which houses Veritas University, a Catholic school in Bwari, Abuja. Reports claim these gunmen kidnapped several locals from the community, but it was unclear if the university was the target or the community at large. The militants reportedly demanded N500,000 per victim as ransom. 


Three days later, on 25 July, the Federal Government College in Kwali urged students to vacate dormitories two days earlier than their scheduled end of term, due to an abduction attempt. Approximately 73km away, gunmen also attacked the Nigerian Law School in Bwari and troops from the Nigerian military were ambushed while patrolling the area. Despite initial reports of successfully repelling the militants by authorities, newer information suggests that thirteen soldiers from the supposedly elite military forces of the Nigerian military, including their commander, Captain Samuel, were kidnapped during the skirmish. 


TRAC suspects that these "unknown gunmen" are likely affiliated with ISWAP, as the organization formally announced its presence in Abuja with the claiming of the prison break at Kuje Prison in Abuja on 06 July 2022. ISWA has been known to kidnap individuals, although, not to the degree that the so-called “Bandits” have. However, an abduction at a college in the heart of Abuja would be a massive propaganda win, spreading fear throughout the capital territory. ISWA’s predecessor organization, Boko Haram, famously attacked schools and kidnapping students. The most famous of these kidnapping of the Chibok girls.

Other Developments

 

TRAC Insight:

Islamic State Khurasan (ISK) Possible Expansion into Central Asia with the Launch of a New Tajik Propaganda Network Called

Al-Azaim Tajiki, Afghanistan

Image:  Islamic State Khurasan Al-Azaim Tajiki Propaganda

On 20 July 2022, Islamic State Khurasan (ISK) launched a new propaganda network in the Tajik language under the ISK media house al-Azaim, "al-Azaim Tajiki." ISK Voice of Khurasan magazine issue #9 recognized Al-Azaim as part of its central network and endorsed it in tribute to Abu Muhammad al-Tajiki, a Tajikistan-born suicide bomber who attacked Kabul’s Sikh temple in June 2022. ISK actively released photos, videos, and documents praising his efforts and indirectly calling Tajiks to support the cause of the Islamic State like him.


This is not the first time ISK showed interest in expanding to Central Asian countries and they often mentioned them in the now defunct Dabiq magazine. ISK militants have carried out multiple attacks targeting electrical towers bringing in power from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan. It is important to note that almost all of Afghanistan’s power is imported from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and that Islamic State franchises around the world have been targeting and bringing down electrical towers as a part of its “Economic Warfare” campaign.

TRAC Incident Report:

An Explosion During the Inauguration of Hagia Sophia Church Killed Two and Injured Many in Al-Suqaylabiyah, Hama, Syria

Image: Inauguration crowd prior to the attack in Al-Suqaylabiyah, Hama, Syria

On 24 July 2022, an explosion at the site of the inauguration of Hagia Sophia Church in Al-Suqaylabiyah killed two and injured many. This explosion was later confirmed by various official sources and according to those sources, state media accused Turkish-linked 'terror groups' of the attack. Though it was reported as a rocket attack, few sources including the Russian Reconciliation Centre named it a UAV drone missile attack. TRAC is not able to confirm the nature of the attack due to the disparity between the reports. 


Hagia Sophia Church in Al-Suqaylabiyah belongs to the Greek Orthodox Community in Syria which was built with the aid and support of Russia. This church was built in the memory of the famous Hagia Sophia in Constantinople/ Istanbul.

TRAC Incident Report:

Protestors Storm UN Headquarters And A Logistics Facility For The MONUSCO Peacekeeping Forces, Burning And Looting, Goma, North Kivu Province, Congo (DRC)

Image: Screenshot from video of the protests

On 25 July 2022, protestors took to the streets in Goma, the capital of North Kivu Province, Congo (DRC), advocating for the immediate withdrawal of the UN’s MONUSCO forces from eastern Congo (DRC). Hundreds of protestors blocked roads, shouting anti-UN slogans. Finally the protestors stormed the headquarters as well as a logistics facility outside of the city, smashing windows and looting valuables, including electronics, from the sites. The police have been dispatched to quell the violence. 


MONUSCO should "pack its bags," declared Modeste Bahati, the president of the Congolese Senate from a podium in Goma on 15 July 2022. He was stoking a fire that already existed amongst his supporters who believe that the UN mission is doing nothing to quell the violence in Eastern Congo (DRC), where nearly 120 militant groups patrol the forests and prey on locals. The ruling Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) party youth wing in Goma has released a statement urging MONUSCO to leave Congo (DRC) unconditionally because “it has already proved its incapacity to provide us with protection.” 


The UN has responded that they respect the right to protest, but the violence and looting are unacceptable.

On Our Radar:

 

TRAC Incident Report:

Gunman, Chao Tiao Yumol, Assassinates Former Lamitan Mayor, Rosita "Rose" Furigay And Her Executive Assistant And A Security Guard, at Ateneo de Manila University Graduation in Quezon City, National Capital Region, Philippines

TRAC Incident Report: Islamic State Central Africa (Shabaab Cult/ISCA) Attacks Christians and Burns Dozens of Houses and Vehicles in the Metobe Village, Mocimboa da Praia, Cabo Delgado Province, Mozambique

TRAC Incident Report: People’s Defence Forces (PDF) Release Video of Craft Produced (Homemade) Howitzer and Rocket Launcher in Myanmar

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