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Americans now expect inflation to reach 6.7% next year, the highest since 1981. This is up from 5.0% in March and marks the fourth consecutive month of significant increases. 1
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There are 69 companies in the S&P 500 that have raised their dividends for 25 years or more. In five recent market crises (1), the average peak-to-trough decline for the S&P 500 was roughly 40%, while these “dividend aristocrats” only fell about 25%. *2
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Apple stock has dropped 25.5% this year, and its forward price-to-earnings ratio is now less than 25x. Historically, Apple's stock price has increased an average of 17% over the twelve months following a PE compression of less than 25x. *3
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U.S. tariffs on China have increased to 145%, while China's tariffs on U.S. goods will rise to 125%. This will inevitably decrease the amount of imports from China, which accounted for around 13% of all U.S. goods imports in 2024. 4
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WSJ- "Consumer Inflation Expectations Hit Highest Since 1981"
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Barrons - "Why Dividend Stocks Like Coca-Cola and Caterpillar Are the Ones to Buy in Periods of Market Turmoil"
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Barrons - "Apple Stock's Resilience Means This Is an Opportunity, Says BofA. Plus, Meta, Occidental, and More."
- WSJ- "The U.S. and China Are Going to Economic War-and Everyone Will Suffer"
1) The five market crises include the dot-com bust, the 2008-09 financial crisis, the 2011 federal debt ceiling standoff, COVID-19, and the 2022 interest-rate hike cycle.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Economic Calendar
Monday:
Fed Governor Chris Waller speaks, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks
Tuesday:
Import price index (Mar), Import price index minus fuel (Mar), Empire State manufacturing survey (Apr), Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks
Wednesday:
U.S. retail sales (Mar), Retail sales minus autos (Mar), Industrial production (Mar), Capacity utilization (Mar), Business inventories (Feb), Home builder confidence index (Apr), Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Dallas Fed President Laurie Logan speaks
Thursday:
Initial jobless claims (Apr), Housing starts (Mar), Building permits (Mar), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (Apr), Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks
Friday:
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks
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