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PDF | Research | Week of March 11, 2024

Quote of the Week

“There’s no fear in the market.”

– Matthew Tym, head of equity derivatives trading, Cantor Fitzgerald. 

 
 

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How to Stop Worrying About the Maturity Wall (Last of a Series)

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The New Order: Leverage Finance in an Asset Management World (Third of a Series)

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Readers of The Lead Left will be familiar with our impatience for the “sky-is-falling” brand of financial industry reporting (“risky loans!”). Recent news articles have further tested us. There’s plenty of room for well-researched pieces about real risks associated with leveraged lending and sponsor buyouts. Indeed, these can be valuable by highlighting managers whose practices aren’t in line with the best performers in the business.

 

However, recent stories contain such a dizzying blend of inaccuracies and wild speculation, we want to highlight issues demonstrating almost willful ignorance of the role private credit plays in today’s asset management world. Or the less excusable desire to simply knock a fast-growing and popular sector.

 

Systemic risk! The kind of thing people throw around when they can’t identify specific concerns but want to grab headlines. Factually, direct lenders’ long-term liabilities match asset tenors. Investors are sophisticated institutions with deep experience in a variety of credit strategies, public and private. None of the leading managers are funded by customer deposits...

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New: Private Capital Call Podcast


Episode 4: Edward Goldstein, Partner and CIO of Coller Credit Secondaries

"Secondary market is at a stage where it’s starting to show a level of consistency in transaction volume." - Edward Goldstein

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Chart of the Week

Spready as She Goes

Despite modest spread softening, direct lending yields remain at record levels. 

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Source: LSEG LPC

(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Ryan Brown / PitchBook LCD

PDI Picks

Signs of hope in Asia-Pacific

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As the Middle East grows in significance as a source of capital and travel resumes post-covid, Asia-based GPs are hoping they can find backing for the region’s big investment themes. 

It’s an arresting statistic: by 2050, more than half of the world’s GDP is expected to be accounted for by Asia-Pacific. Moreover, in a recently published research paper, ADM Capital managing director Sabita Prakash argued that increasing urbanisation, ageing populations and pressure to decarbonise are among themes characteristic of the region – all of which should in theory create a huge investment opportunity for debt providers...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

Nearly US$15bn of US LBO loan volume completed as BSL market strengthens

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The US BSL market has completed nearly US$15bn of loan volume backing sponsor buyout activity so far this year, up over 2.5 times year ago totals. The loan market as a whole has been more constructive early in 2024 with the buyer/seller gap narrowing a bit and more notably, sponsors looking to invest in new assets...

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Contact: Maria Dikeos / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

Private equity

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With dealmaking flush, PE capital calls as a percentage of dry powder reached 49.7% in 2021, well above the 35.3% historical average for the asset class going back to 2000. PE funds as a whole delivered 33.9% of NAV back to LPs in distributions, also well above the historical average of 24.6%...

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Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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What Investors Want to Know: Middle Market CLO Manager Assessment Considerations

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Given the increased interest and overall expansion of the private credit sector, Fitch Ratings highlights key elements of its assessment of the capabilities of middle market (MM) CLO managers that are different (due to relevance) from that of a broadly syndicated loan (BSL) CLO manager...

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Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Percentage of Loans with Uncapped Synergies & Cost Savings EBITDA Addbacks

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

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Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 10.8% as of 1 March, down from the highest level in last 12 months of 12.1% in May 2023) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans)...

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Contact: Suneet Chandvani / Debtwire 

Private Debt Intelligence

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LPs target private debt for reliable income streams

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Private debt investments provide LPs with reliable income streams through contractual repayments, which are particularly attractive in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. Portfolio diversification and high-risk adjusted returns were the second most common reasons cited by investors surveyed by Preqin for allocating to private debt...

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Contact: William Bennett-Lynch / Preqin

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.