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Good Friday morning!
The bull's are disappointed again! The oversold bounce has failed now three times and sellers have come back in for the past three days in a row, erasing all of the bulls gains. This is not a good sign long-term, and even though I was looking for a bounce to sell into and get short, it is just not materializing so the edge is swinging back to the bears.
As you can see in the profile pic below, I have circled the past three days highs, and value essentially has been overlapping. The path of least resistance seemed higher, however, the fact that the highs all failed is a bearish sign! If we build value break away lower today, then I will be looking for lower next week. I am not saying it will happen today but we could actually be targeting and taking out that secure low from last Thursday, the 13th at 5559.75 in the /ES futures! That was key but now I feel is in jeopardy.
In the key levels and targets for today, we are well below the POC at 5714 and also below prior low at 5684.50. Unless we can get back above 5684.50 then 5714, the sellers will be in full control! Our lower targets have almost hit already and I have added a second set of targets for you at 5635-5625. After that my friends, it is down to 5559.75! Maybe not today but we will go there next week. Futures are trading at 5663 at the time of this writing.
One last thing today: Today is "Triple Witching" which is an event that takes place on the third Friday of March, June, September and December. For those not aware of this phenomenon, Triple Witching, or the simultaneous expiration of stock options, index futures, and index options, occurs four times a year. The first triple witching of 2025 will take place today, and with it usually brings increased volatility so be careful!
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added or taken out yesterday but the closest one below at 5670.50 should get erased today. We have 7 above and 28 below, but that could soon change to 27.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5740 - 5750
Key Levels: 5714 POC
downside target is: 5660 - 5650 then possibly 5635 - 5625
/NQ upside target is: 20,100 - 20,120
Key Level: 19,756 Prior Low
downside target is : 19,725 - 19,700 (and we are already there)
/RTY upside target is: 2100 - 2110
downside target is: 2080 - 2070
Economic Data: Very Slow Day
Triple Witching
John Williams Speaks @ 9:05 AM ET
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5675 then at $5690 with Supply above $5740 then $5790
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5700 looking to play a break and retest above $5713 long targeting $5759 then $5800
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5660 looking to play short after a break and retest from $5655 targeting $5610 then a break down into $5590s
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SPY - Key demand at then at $561 then Supply above that at $567 568
Bullish Sellers trapped above $561 looking to play a break and retest from $562 long targeting $563 then a breakout mid high $564
Bearish Buyers trapped below $561 after a break and retest below $560 targeting $559 then a breakdown into $557
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/NQ - Key demand at $19780 then at $19728 with Supply above at $19950
Bullish Sellers trapped above $19760 looking to play a break and retest above $19780 long targeting $19900 then a breakout back into low $20000
Bearish Buyers trapped below $19750 looking to play short from $19720 targeting a breakdown $19600s then $19520s
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QQQ Key Demand at $475-476 with Supply at $480-481
Bullish Sellers trapped above $475 looking to play a break and retest from $476 targeting $478 then a breakout into low mid $489s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $475 looking to play a break and retest short from $474 targeting $472s then $471s
Also watching
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TSLA - Key Demand at $222 then at $225-226 with Supply above at $238
Bullish - Sellers trapped above $238 after a break and retest from $239 looking to play LONG targeting $241 then a breakout into $2452
Bearish - Buyers trapped below $238-237 after a break and retest from $236 below looking to target $232 then a breakdown into $230
Have a great day and a fantastic weekend!!
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