Here's a quick look back at the major headlines...

• A ho-hum July gave way to a return to Q2's market rally in early August, with the S&P 500 finishing inches from its first close above 7,800 in the middle of the month.

• The major indexes gave back some of those gains by the end of the month, though, and, apart from the major tech names, struggled to find solid footing in September amid an resurgence of familiar concerns.

• Uncertainty around an end to the Iran War and a hotter-than-expected August inflation report prompted a rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

• Bond yields jumped considerably in anticipation of and as a result of that move from the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield was up over 5.2% as recently as Sept. 25, its highest level since mid-2007. Average rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage were up above 7.5% as of Sept. 29.

So, where does that leave us heading into Q4?

Well, historically the markets have seen rallies following the clarity derived from mid-term election results. As a CFRA commentary noted earlier this week:

"Since WWII, the fourth quarter (Q4) of midterm election years has typically seen the S&P 500 benefit from the lifting of election uncertainty. Indeed, the '500' posted its second-best performance in Q4 of the entire 16-quarter presidential cycle, rising an average of 6.4% in price and advancing 85% of the time. Better yet, Q1 of the third year recorded the best results, gaining 7.0% and rising 90% of the time, while Q2 of year three was the third best. However, not all Q4s saw black ink, as minor-to-major declines of 0.7%, 6.3%, and 14.0% were posted in 1994, 1978, and 2018, respectively, all of which occurred at the beginning of new rate-tightening cycles."

Eyes will be on the Fed and the potential for at least one more rate hike before year-end. Naturally, inflation reports and ongoing negotiations to end the Iran War will factor in as the bond market attempts to handicap the path forward.

Q3 earnings will be a major factor on the stock side of the equation, especially after the S&P 500 posted "extraordinary results" with a Q2 earnings growth of "an impressive 35%," per Janney's investment Strategy Group.