July 8, 2026

From Rick's desk...

Midyear Outlook 2026: Policy, Buildouts, & Bottlenecks

Dear Clients & Friends,

LPL Research is pleased to present Midyear Outlook 2026: Policy, Buildouts, & Bottlenecks. Their semi-annual update offers a comprehensive analysis of the economic and market environment, highlighting potential implications for you. I’m pleased to bring you a few key highlights today.

In the 2026 Outlook: The Policy Engine, considerable time was spent discussing how policy is increasingly a driver of capital markets. The disruptions from the Iran conflict certainly served as another example of how policy, geopolitical or otherwise, should be top of mind for investors.

So, what now? The simple answer is that the team expects more of the same. Policy again will be front and center as attention turns to U.S. midterm elections and the uncertainty surrounding Kevin Warsh as the new chair of the Federal Reserve. Mr. Warsh’s ability to influence his colleagues and questions around congressional balance of power will help shape the second half of 2026.

LPL Research continues to focus on AI and corporate earnings. As a matter of fact, strength in earnings is a key reason they’ve raised their 2026 stock market return expectations. While some frothiness around AI expectations and market concentration are concerning, the earnings wave adds conviction to their forecast.

Internationally, they are less sanguine, as European economies have again fallen behind, and emerging markets may continue to be hit-and-miss in aggregate. Simply stated, while the bias for U.S. equity exposure remains, the variance between the U.S. and the rest of the world may be less pronounced.

All these items should be major variables of focus for the balance of the year. But the key question is: How should investors position themselves to optimize investment opportunities? The answer is grounded in the belief that equity markets should be constructive in the second half, but keep in mind that midterm election years have historically made for a bumpy investment ride. 



To that end, they believe bonds should remain a steadfast allocation, while market conditions persistently point to use cases for alternative exposure, in their view. Being well-balanced is key, but it is perhaps most important when policy shifts can cause the market to turn on a dime.

These are just some of the insights you’ll find in Midyear Outlook 2026: Policy, Buildouts, & Bottlenecks.

To get more, including considerations we can discuss, visit the link above.



Best regards,

Rick

Richard B. Welsh, A.A.M.S.

Founder & President

Highlights From LPL Research’s Midyear Outlook 2026

In this special edition of market signals, LPL strategists share highlights from LPL Research’s Midyear Outlook 2026 publication released on July 7. They share key themes for stocks, bonds, and the economy that LPL Research believes will be determining factors of second half returns. For stocks, progress toward monetization of artificial intelligence (AI) will be a key factor in the second half. LPL Research expects gains for stocks on the back of strong earnings growth and, if the macro backdrop improves, a slight increase in valuations. AI disappointments, geopolitics, and midterm elections are among the primary risks. For bonds, LPL Research expects sticky inflation and resilient growth to keep the Federal Reserve on extended pause, leaving Treasury yields range-bound, with the 10-year likely finishing the year between 4.00% and 4.50% absent disinflation or clear economic weakening. Tight credit spreads likely to persist, though AI-driven borrowing by hyperscalers may pressure spreads modestly higher. Returns may be income-driven as Treasury yields stay rangebound and credit spreads remain tight. Finally, U.S. economic growth should moderate but remain positive in the second half, with strong business investment helping offset weakness in other sectors. Elevated household net worth will continue to provide an important buffer for consumers. Expect inflation to moderate toward 2.9% by the end of 2026 and for unemployment to edge higher but remain historically low.

From Marie's desk...

A Uniquely Elevated Experience Tailored for You and Your Family

Dear Clients and Friends,

One of the questions I hear most often is, "What exactly do you help clients with?" The answer is simple: if it impacts your financial life, we want to be part of the conversation.

At WFG, we've intentionally built our practice to serve as your personal CFO - someone who helps you look beyond investments and make thoughtful decisions across every aspect of your financial picture. Whether you're considering a major purchase, selling a business, planning for retirement, evaluating tax strategies, reviewing insurance, or thinking about your legacy, our role is to help you navigate those decisions with confidence.

Luke often says it best during client meetings:

"If it has a dollar sign associated with it - or you think there might be a dollar sign associated with it - call us first."

That philosophy reflects how we work. We believe the best financial decisions happen before commitments are made, not after.

As your needs become more sophisticated, we're also proud to offer access to the extensive resources of LPL Wealth Management. Through this elevated platform, clients can benefit from specialized capabilities designed for individuals and families with complex financial needs, including access to advanced planning strategies, high-net-worth resources, and a network of experienced professionals. It's another way we're able to deliver customized solutions that evolve alongside your financial life.

Just as important, LPL's strength and stability provide an added layer of confidence that your financial plan is backed by one of the nation's leading wealth management organizations.

Whether you're facing a life transition, exploring a new opportunity, or simply wondering if a financial decision deserves a second opinion, remember - you don't have to figure it out alone. Call us first. We're here to help you make informed decisions, coordinate with your other trusted professionals, and ensure every piece of your financial life is working together toward your goals.

We appreciate the trust you place in us and look forward to continuing to serve as your partner through every stage of your financial journey.

Best,

Marie

Yes, Me Again... An Achilles Update!

The Achilles saga continues, but this chapter comes with some happy news - I took my first steps back onto the pickleball court! Better yet, those steps turned into a few games, and everything felt pretty good. The real adventure will be dusting off the tennis racket, which I'm hoping to test out next week. Fingers crossed!

In the meantime, I'm throwing the entire kitchen sink at this injury - physical therapy, StemWave therapy, icing, resting, stretching and even chiropractic care. If there's a path to healing, I'm probably on it!

One of the best parts wasn't just being back on the court - it was sharing it with our two sons, our oldest son's wonderful fiancée, and even our intern, Austin (who somehow managed to avoid making it into the photo... we'll get him next time!).

It's moments like these that remind us how fortunate we are. Some of our favorite people just happen to be our family - and some also happen to be part of our WFG team. We don't take that for granted. We feel incredibly blessed, and we're grateful for every step forward... literally!

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