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Good Thursday morning,
NVIDIA (NVDA) reported its Q1 2026 earnings last night, and the results were strong, beating both revenue and earnings expectations. The company posted $44.1 billion in revenue, surpassing the expected $42.71 billion, and $0.96 in non-GAAP earnings per share, beating the forecast of $0.85.
This has sent futures soaring this morning, however, we are well off of overnight highs, almost 60 points down in the /ES! Also, the huge gap has completely evaporated and we are now back inside prior days range! Unbelievable moves in this market lately.
All of this comes after a very turbulent session yesterday as volatility was largely driven by President Trump's comments regarding U.S. chip manufacturers restricting advanced chip supplies to China. The administration ordered companies that provide semiconductor design software—such as Cadence, Synopsys, and Siemens EDA—to halt sales to China unless they obtain an export license. This move has intensified concerns over trade restrictions and their impact on major chip-makers like NVIDIA.
In the profile and key levels below, we are now back to the prior day's range, almost 60 points off of overnight highs. Overnight inventory is still almost 100% net long, but this huge move lower tells us it is a coin toss once the opening bell rings, as the fade has already happened. That being said, we have some very key levels to watch for today!
The first key level is prior day's high at 5952.50. Any move back above this could see a move back towards the upper targets. If sellers keep price below 5952.50, then look for VAH (Value Area High) at 5933.50, then the VERY IMPORTANT AREA of 5922.50, which is the POC (Point of Control) and yesterday's half-back. If this level holds,, then the edge will remain with the buyers. If 5922.50 is lost, the look for the overnight low and VAL (Value Area Low) at 5911. If that breaks, look for 5900 - 5890.
Futures are currently trading at 5954 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: Finally, a VPOC was taken out above yesterday at 5948, so now 5960 is in play for today's trade. We now have 6 above and 21 below!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5990 - 6010
Key Levels: 5952.50 Prior High
downside target is: 5920 - 5900
/NQ upside target is: 21,840 - 21,870
Key Level: 21,590 Overnight half-back
downside target is : 21,470 - 21,430
/RTY upside target is: 2110 - 2120
downside target is: 2065 - 2055
Economic Data : Red Start Event
GDP @ 8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
Thomas Barkin Speaks @ 8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profit @ 8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET
Austan Goolsbee Speaks @ 10:40 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
EIA Crude Inventories Report @ 12:00 PM ET
More Color By : Rich Rickus
- /ES - Key Demand $5915-5920 with Supply $5960
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5915 looking to play a break and retest above $5920 long targeting $5945 then $5960
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5910 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5910 targeting $5880 then a break down into $5850s
- SPY Key demand at then at $585 with Supply above at $592
Bullish Sellers trapped above $586 looking to play a break and retest from $587 long targeting $589 then a breakout mid high $590s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $585 after a break and retest below $584 targeting $582's then a breakdown into $580's
- /NQ Key demand at $21350 with Supply above at $21500-21400
Bullish Sellers trapped above $21400 looking to play a break and retest above $21450 long targeting $21525 then a breakout back into low $21600’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $2135 looking to play short from below $21325 targeting $21275 then $21250
- QQQ Key Demand at $518 with Supply at $521
Bullish Sellers trapped above $518 looking to play a break and retest from $519 targeting $521 then a breakout into low mid $522
Bearish Buyers trapped below $518 looking to play a break and retest short from $517 targeting $515 then $514
Have a great trading day ahead!
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