Weekly Analyst Review

23 November 2022

Bottom Line Up Front

The FIFA World Cup, held only every four years, garners the world's attention. This year, the tournament is being hosted in Qatar and while millions are paying attention for the sport of it, there are also bad actors who have been keeping the games in their sight.

Although Islamic State supporters have been calling for attacks on the FIFA World cup since January of this year, earlier this month, their momentum made a huge upswing. On 08 November 2022, Islamic State insiders circulated a call to action to all supporters, encouraging them to infiltrate the games by blending in with the crowd and conducting lone wolf attacks. IS insiders see the World Cup as a "valuable opportunity" to conduct a "humanitarian campaign to clean up Qatar."

On 22 November 2022, Islamic State supporters released the above poster depicting a soccer match between the “infidels of the world” and Islamic State. The poster says this is the “first round,” so one can expect more posters to surface as the FIFA tournament continues.

A large-scale coordinated attack in Qatar would certainly have Islamic State attempting to hit far above their weight class, due to the country and the event's sophisticated security and intelligence protocols and preparations since being awarded the honor of host country. However, the use of the word “soon” in English on the poster reflects an attempt by IS supporters to strike fear into those attending the matches and it highlights how effective IS intimidation tactics can be to the western world.

We must remain alert to the fact that the FIFA World Cup is a prime target for any jihadist or separatist group. Such world events represent international unity and peace among various cultures and ethnicities, which is counter to their core ideology. Other terrorist organizations with similar ideologies, such as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), banned their supporters from watching World Cup at all.

It should be noted that the decision to have Qatar host the FIFA World Cup has been a hot topic of debate for many other groups as well, due to decades of alleged global corruption scandals, the human rights complaints filed against the Qatar for their treatment of migrant workers and the country's anti-LGBTQ views. Thus, it isn't only separatists with their eyes on changing the narrative of this year's tournament.

On 20 November 2022, American anarchists committed a vandalism attack on the Adidas headquarters in Portland Oregon, citing retaliation against the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. The perpetrators targeted several office and recreational buildings on the company's campus, shattering windows, breaking doors, and covering walls with paint.

According to the unusually prompt released statement of claim, Adidas is one of FIFA's significant long-term partners and is the main sponsor for this year's games. Their statement also included a list of 23 additional sponsors and a call-to-action for finding property and infrastructure of these sponsors "in every city" and attacking "all involved."

Other Developments

TRAC Insight:

Islamic State (IS) Turns to Tinder for Fundraising and

Recruitment in South Africa

Image: Islamic State Flag

Islamic State is actively exploring its options for fundraising by exploiting different social media platforms and Tinder is now one of them. The group has started using fake Tinder profiles to trick South Africans into funding IS affiliates and recruit members across the continent.

After first contact, an IS supporter posing as a male or female under a false identity (usually a lesser-known model or actor) would try to talk the victim into shifting to other chat services outside of the dating site. Once the trust has been gained, the perpetrator would engage in some form of cybersex until the supporter gets a comprising photo of the victim, which can be used to blackmail him or her. The victim is then told that the images will be made available to friends, family, and employers if he/she does not agree to pay a large sum of money.

This is not the first time a terrorist organization exploited a dating platform to raise funds. Boko Haram also used the dating site, “Match.com” to raise large amounts of money in Nigeria for years. And, a few months ago, IS sympathizers created an NFT with an Islamic State claim and released it on NFT marketplaces such as Rarible and Opensea. These newly emerged platforms easily provide terrorist organizations the means to spread propaganda and raise funds like never before.

TRAC Incident Report:

Local Residents Take Up Arms to Support Army in CTOs

Against al-Shabaab in Middle Shabelle Region, Somalia

Image: One of the photos circulated showing locals with the weapons they have been given.

On 21 November 2022, photos were being shared on social media of Somali locals receiving training and weapons from the Somali military in the Middle Shabelle Region, in an effort to support the military in CTOs against al-Shabaab.

From the photos that were circulated, it is clear that this is a rudimentary force made up of young and older men who are being provided with the bare necessities for fighting jihadists in Somalia. This is not an uncommon move for African militaries, simply because they lack the financial, tactical or training resources to effectively oppose and ultimately destroy armed extremists.

Although this can be seen as a step in the right direction, it is not nearly sufficient to fight al-Shabaab in the region. The government seems to be desperate for additional soldiers and as is the case with most government recruitment efforts in Africa, these men were likely promised money, housing or food in exchange for their service to the government. The local people are usually loyal to whoever can provide the most money and resources, which is a risk for the Somali military. On the other hand, the advantage is that the locals know the area well, they speak the local dialects, and they have connections within the community.

TRAC Incident Report:

A Gunman Lost His Life During an Armed Confrontation with Security Forces in Ailakhor, Chang Phuek, Chanae District, Narathiwat, Thailand

Image: Image: Area where the armed confrontation took place.

On 19 November 2022, a suspected insurgent was shot dead during an armed confrontation with security Forces in the village of Ailakhor, on Chang Phuek mountain, Chanae District, Narathiwat.

After being informed that an unspecified number of insurgents were hiding in the said village, Police and Soldiers surrounded the area, to which armed gunmen responded by opening fire against the security Forces. Following the shootout, the lifeless body of one gunman was found by the soldiers who also seized an M4 carbine.

This incident comes on the heels of the 14 November IED attack that left one soldier dead and another injured in the Chanae district.

Although the identity of the gunman is still unknown, TRAC posits that the deceased gunman is a member of Islamic State East Asia (ISEA), as the group has been suspected of operating cross-border from Malaysia since their message to the people of Thailand in 2016 and the December 2021 pledge video by ISEA-Pattani.

Further, TRAC does not believe Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) is involved, as the group had been actively engaged in peace talks with the Thai government in August 2022 and therefore, it would be unlikely that they would be actively conducting large-scale operations in Narathiwat.

On Our Radar:

TRAC Incident Report:

al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Militants Targeted UAE Military Crew with an IED, Killing 4 & Injuring Multiple, in Wadi Omran, Abyan, Yemen

TRAC Incident Report: March 23 Movement (M23)Militants Storm Army Camp in Bambu, North Ubangi Province, Congo (DR)

TRAC Incident Report: Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) Killed Two Pakistani Army Personnel & Seized their Weapons in the Shiraz Mountain Area, Mand, Kech District, Balochistan

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