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Reading the Tea Leaves on the
Harvest Fuel Relief Program
Matthew Gammans, Assistant Professor in Ag Policy, North Dakota State University
President Trump announced $8 billion in funds would be distributed to farmers as one-time payments. The program is titled the Harvest Fuel Relief program and is motivated by record-high diesel prices.
Who will get a piece of this $8 billion?
Which farmers will receive how much has not been disclosed. The USDA states the following:
Similar to the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program, the Harvest Fuel Relief (HFR) program will provide simple, proportional support to producers using a uniform formula to cover a portion of modeled losses during the 2026 crop year. This national loss average will be based on FSA reported planted acres, Economic Research Service cost of production estimates, and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates yields and prices.
— USDA, Harvest Fuel Relief program announcement, October 19, 2026
USDA Under Secretary for Farm Production and Conservation Richard Fordyce described the program to Agweek:
So this program is going to cover, really, the additional cost of fuel related to farming operations in the field, by crop.
— Richard Fordyce, quoted in Jenny Schlecht, Agweek, October 23, 2026
Based on the above descriptions of what the formulas may potentially take into consideration, I calculate potential Harvest Fuel Relief program payments under three hypothetical formula scenarios:
1. Identical formula to last year’s Farmer Bridge payments. This formula contains no fuel input, but since USDA explicitly describes the intended calculation as “similar to the Farmer Bridge Assistance program,” it is a plausible outcome.
2. Proportional to projected 2026 per-acre fuel expenditure for a crop, calculated nationally. This is the simplest way to connect per-acre payments to diesel price exposure while retaining a single nationwide payment rate for each crop.
3. Proportional to projected 2026 per-acre fuel expenditure for a crop in a given state. This approach would allow for regional variation in the intensity of per-acre diesel use to affect payments.
Assumptions:
• All of the $8 billion is transferred to farmers, ignoring any transaction costs or program overhead.
• I assume that ~90% of the funds go to row crops for which there is a USDA ERS regional crop budget, ~1% go to other row crops, and ~8% goes to specialty crops, roughly the same proportions as last winter’s Farmer Bridge payments. Here I only consider $7.2 billion distributed to the crops that have an ERS budget.
• I assume the disbursements are distributed on a per-acre basis, similar to the Bridge payments.
Data:
• USDA ERS regional crop budgets to obtain per-acre fuel costs.
• ERS’s projected 2026 increase in fuel costs to estimate 2026 fuel spending.
• FSA 2026 planted acres data.
• October 2026 WASDE yields and prices.
Hypothetical payment rates
The figure below shows the average per-acre payment for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and rice under each scenario, by state.
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