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Good Monday morning!
We hope everyone had a nice holiday weekend and enjoyed your time off. But today is a new day, new week, new month and a new quarter in the markets and yes, you guessed it, new all time highs were hit in the overnight session already! Now there has been a decent reversal and all of the gains from the 6:00 PM EST Sunday night open until now have been erased.
In the profile pic below, I have highlighted the key levels for today. Basically there is a very important range from 5314 - 5306 and in this area, we have Value Area High, Overnight Low, 1/2 back from Thursday, Point of Control and Value Area Low, so this will be a great tell as to who will take control today!
Remember, longer term trend is still firmly in the bulls control but today is a new day so lets see how the battle plays out! If buyers can keep it above the range mentioned, then obviously look for longs, first repairing the poor high from Thursday, then upper targets. (Remember, poor highs and poor lows occur when the buyers or sellers basically vanish from the trading session and essentially "take a break". It doesn't mean the trend is over and these poor highs and lows need to be "repaired".) Now if the sellers take over, and break below 5306, then look for downside targets!!!!
As of this writing, futures are at or close to overnight lows and we are back inside Thursday's range. Overnight inventory believe it or not is still 100% net long, but we have already had such a large move off of the overnight highs that the short trade is done for now. No edge at the moment.
VPOC Update: We took out 5319.25 and added another new VPOC below @ 5275. This is another new record with 23 untested points of control below current price. (The tray of pot brownies and the spiked punch bowl have both been refilled for today's fun!)
*Potential volatility @ 10:00 AM EST when ISM Manufacturing data is released! Heads up!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5330 - 5335
Key Levels: 5315 - 5306 1/2 back, Value Area High/Low & POC
downside target is: 5295 - 5290
/NQ upside target is: 18,555 - 18,585
Key Level: 18,495 - 18,490 1/2 Back & POC from Thursday
downside target is : 18,445 - 18,415
/RTY upside target is: 2164 - 2166
downside target is: 2136 - 2132
Economic Data:
PMI @ 9:45 AM EST
ISM Manufacturing @ 10:00 AM EST ** Red Star Event
Construction Spending @ 10:00 AM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key Demand at $5210- 5320 with Supply above at $5335- 5330
- Selling at the open failing to break below $5310 I will look to play long off a break and retest long targeting $5228. The only way I would want to play short if is price can break and retest below $5300 targeting old demand at at $5275
SPY - Consolidating inside balanced range after some buying over the weekend where Supply flipped to Demand at $524 with Supply HOD at $525.84.
As long as we stay above $522 I want to be playing long after pullbacks.
- Break and retest from last week highs $524.70 playing long targeting new HOD
- Sell off at the open inside key demand at $522 looking to play long after pullback
SPX - Supply flipped to demand at $5245-5250 with Supply HOD above at $5265
- Looking to play long after a sell off finds support at $5245 targeting $5255
- If price breaks below $5240 I would like to play short targeting $5229
/NQ - Key Demand at $18460 - 18475 with Supply at $18615 -18600
- As long as price can hold $18520 I want to be playing long, If it breaks down below $18520 I will look to play short targeting $18480
QQQ - Gap Up over the weekend Key Demand at $448-447 HOD with Demand below formed at $446 and previously at $443
- Sell off at the open where bears are trapped above $445 looking to play long
- Would only like to play short if bears can defend $446 on a pullback where Demand would flip back to Supply targeting $444 first then $443
AMD GAP UP Key Demand at $178 - 179 with Supply above at $183
- Sell off failing to break below $178 I will look to play long targeting 181
TSLA Key Demand at $175 - 172 with HOD Supply at $184
- Looking to play long after a sell off at the open playing a break and retest from $175 targeting $177 first then $180
As ALWAYS, have your stops in place!!!
Have a great day and stay safe!
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