Speaker Johnson Plans to Hold House Reconciliation Bill Vote Today

China’s trade wild card | Shippers scramble | MAHA report tomorrow |

Updates: Rubio defends Trump foreign policy amid criticism over Russia and foreign aid cuts | Japan's farm minister quits amid rice price uproar | Three Fed Bank presidents comment at confab | White House economist downplays tariff-driven inflation risks | Retailers choose their words carefully: navigating tariffs, pricing, and public perception | Argentina extends wheat, barley export tax relief | NASS to end standalone state and regional crop reports; data still available via Quick Stats | China deploys emergency measures as heatwave threatens crops and water supply | GOP farm bill criticized by former Sen. Jon Tester | More stakeholders join EPA RFS debate | Senate to vote today on blocking California gas car ban | U.S. companies rush to convert warehouses into bonded facilities | Virginia Congressman Gerry Connolly dies at 75 | Musk pulls back on political spending | Golden seeks re-election in Maine’s 2nd district | Genetic link confirmed between Brazil's poultry farm and zoo bird flu outbreaks | 4% of U.S. truckers lack valid licenses, raising safety alarms

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, May 21, 2025

— Post-midnight deal pushes reconciliation bill closer to House floor vote GOP leaders claim SALT deal reached; House Rules panel still in marathon session   The House Rules Committee worked through the night and into Wednesday morning on a sweeping legislative package backed by President Donald Trump that includes a debt ceiling increase, tax cuts, Medicaid restrictions, and a decade-long path to spending reductions. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said just after midnight that negotiators had struck a deal with key Republican holdouts over changes to the 2017 cap on the federal deduction for state and local taxes (SALT) — a major sticking point. “We’ve reached a deal. We’re still having some conversations with a few more members on a couple of things in the White House but we’re about to wrap it up,” Scalise told Bloomberg.   The last-minute compromises will be packaged in a manager’s amendment, which had not yet been released as of early morning. Committee debate is expected to continue for several more hours before a vote on advancing the bill to the House floor.   GOP leaders acknowledge the bill faces significant uncertainty in the Senate, where changes are likely.   Of note: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) this morning said he plans to hold a floor vote on the measure today.    — Shipping scramble as U.S./China tariff truce triggers export frenzy A 90-day tariff pause sparks unprecedented surge in China-to-U.S. shipping   The recent 90-day mutual tariff truce between the United States and China has unleashed a shipping frenzy on the China-to-U.S. trade route, as exporters and importers race to move goods before the temporary reprieve expires. The rush to capitalize on reduced tariffs has triggered a cascade of disruptions across shipping lines, ports, and supply chains, echoing the chaos of the pandemic-era trade surge.   Exporters rush to beat the deadline. Container bookings from China to the U.S. nearly doubled between May 12 and May 18, with some sources reporting a surge of up to 277% in bookings compared to early May. U.S. importers are scrambling to secure everything from consumer goods to industrial components, aiming to stockpile before tariffs potentially snap back after the truce ends.   Retailers, in particular, are accelerating orders in anticipation of the critical fall and winter holiday shopping seasons, making this the busiest period for transpacific shipping in years.   Soaring freight rates and overbooked ships. The surge in demand has pushed freight rates up by 22% to 31.7% on China-to-U.S. routes, with spot market rates to the U.S. West Coast climbing to $2,400 per FEU and East Coast rates reaching $3,200. Major shipping lines, such as MSC, have announced further rate hikes for June, while premium services are being reinstated to prioritize high-volume U.S.-bound shipments.   The spike in bookings has led to severe congestion at Chinese ports, especially at major gateways like Shenzhen's Yantian Port, which handles over a quarter of China's exports to the United States.   Capacity crunch and supply chain strain. The export scramble has created acute shortages of shipping space, with many routes fully booked and carriers only able to accommodate clients with long-term contracts. Transpacific shipping capacity had dropped nearly 60% by mid-May due to earlier service suspensions, and redeployment of vessels from other global routes is expected to take weeks.   The backlog is expected to persist into late May and June, with container shortages in Asia likely to worsen as equipment repositioning lags behind the surge in demand. Despite the tariff pause, a 30% duty still applies to many Chinese goods, limiting the full benefit for some importers and keeping margins tight, especially for low-value products.   Both U.S. and Chinese ports are struggling to keep up, with U.S. port activity still 20% below normal levels, and Asian ports bracing for further congestion as the export rush continues. The uncertainty of what happens after the 90-day truce ends has led many companies to "bite the bullet" and pay higher rates now, rather than risk even greater disruption later. “Trying to ship a year’s worth of goods in three months — of course there’s no room,” a Shanghai freight forwarder told Caixin, capturing the sense of urgency and panic gripping the industry.   — China’s wild card: Rare earth leverage in trade fight U.S. automakers warn of supply risks as Beijing signals hardball tactics   Tensions between China and the Trump administration are rising again, just a week after a temporary trade truce. On Monday, China accused the U.S. of jeopardizing the fragile agreement by targeting tech giant Huawei. At the heart of China’s strategic leverage are rare earth minerals — critical materials essential for electric vehicles, defense systems, and high-tech manufacturing. Beijing’s dominance in this supply chain gives it outsized influence in trade negotiations.   U.S. automakers have reportedly cautioned White House officials that any Chinese move to restrict rare earth exports could disrupt production lines and push vehicle prices higher. They are urging the administration to prioritize long-term access to these minerals in ongoing trade talks.   — Rubio defends Trump foreign policy amid criticism over Russia and foreign aid cuts Senate Democrats press Rubio on U.S. global retreat, Russia sanctions, and USAID closure   Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday, forcefully defending the Trump administration’s foreign policy record against accusations of global retrenchment and increased Russian leverage. Rubio, who has become a central figure in President Trump’s cabinet, rejected claims that the United States is withdrawing from the world stage, citing his recent diplomatic activity: “I just hit 18 countries in 18 weeks — that doesn’t sound like much of a withdrawal,” he said, adding, “We have the same leverage today than we had under the previous administration”.   Democratic scrutiny over Russia and Ukraine. Democrats on the committee sharply questioned Rubio about the administration’s approach to Russia, particularly in the context of stalled Ukraine peace talks and the perception that President Vladimir Putin is exploiting delays to his advantage. They pointed to the bipartisan Russia sanctions bill, led by Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), which has more than 70 Senate co-sponsors and would impose new penalties on Moscow in response to its ongoing aggression in Ukraine. Rubio acknowledged “there’s value” in maintaining dialogue with Putin but warned that “there will be consequences if they don’t come to the table.” However, he stopped short of endorsing the Graham sanctions bill, emphasizing, “There is no military solution to this crisis. It will have to end in a negotiated settlement.”   Contentious cuts to foreign aid and USAID. A major flashpoint at the hearing was the Trump administration’s sweeping cuts to foreign assistance and the controversial move to dismantle the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) called the closure “illegal” and “bad policy,” arguing it undermines U.S. national security and strengthens rivals like China and Russia. The administration’s plan will reduce USAID to just a handful of legally required positions, folding its remaining operations into the State Department and terminating most staff by September 2025. Rubio defended the restructuring, conceding that while some foreign aid programs “make all the sense in the world,” others “frankly made no sense at all,” and insisted that reforms were necessary to ensure U.S. foreign policy “makes us stronger, safer or more prosperous.”   The hearing highlighted a stark partisan divide. Democrats accused the administration of “eviscerating six decades of foreign-policy investments” and giving adversaries like China and Russia new openings worldwide. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) warned that “American flags are coming down around the world,” reflecting a perception of U.S. retreat. Rubio, meanwhile, insisted that the administration’s approach represents a recalibration, not a withdrawal, and pointed to ongoing efforts to support Ukraine and engage allies on defense needs, such as encouraging NATO partners to provide Patriot missile systems.   As debate continues over the future of U.S. foreign assistance and the path forward in Ukraine, Rubio’s testimony underscored the administration’s determination to reshape America’s global role — even as critics warn of diminished influence and emboldened adversaries.   — Kennedy defends MAHA report, assures farmers on glyphosate and crop practices   HHS Secretary tells Senate the upcoming health report won’t target agriculture, urges lawmakers to wait for full release   U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told lawmakers Tuesday that the forthcoming "Make America Healthy Again" (MAHA) report will not disparage American farmers or widely used agricultural chemicals such as glyphosate. Testifying before a Senate Appropriations subcommittee, Kennedy pushed back against Republican concerns that the MAHA Commission’s findings would unfairly criticize modern farming. “There’s nobody that has a greater commitment to the American farmer than we do,” Kennedy said. “The MAHA movement collapses if we can’t partner with the American farmer in producing a safe, robust, and abundant food supply.”   The testimony came amid rising concern from lawmakers, including Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.), who cited “reliable sources” suggesting that the MAHA report may target crop protection tools and seed oils — particularly glyphosate and the so-called “Hateful Eight” industrial oils made from crops like canola, sunflower, and soy. “If Americans lose confidence in the safety and integrity of our food supply due to the unfounded claims that mislead consumers, public health will be at risk,” Hyde-Smith warned. She pressed Kennedy on whether he had reviewed the thousands of scientific studies affirming glyphosate’s safety, questioning whether his environmental law background might bias the report.   Kennedy rejected the premise. “The drafts that I’ve seen, there is not a single word in them that should worry the American farmer,” he responded.   The MAHA report is set for release Thursday, May 22. Kennedy declined to preview recommendations, urging lawmakers instead to review the full document once published.   — Japan's farm minister quits amid rice price uproar Taku Eto resigns after rice remark sparks voter backlash; Koizumi tapped to tackle soaring costs   Japanese Agriculture Minister Taku Eto resigned Wednesday after public outrage over his comment that he "never had to buy rice" due to gifts from supporters — an admission viewed as tone-deaf amid a surge in rice prices. His departure delivers another blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, whose approval rating hit a record low of 27.4% this week.   The comment triggered fury from voters already struggling with a doubling of rice prices driven by poor harvests and booming tourism. Despite emergency stockpile releases, prices for a 5kg bag hit 4,268 yen ($29.73) last week.   Ishiba named former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi as Eto’s successor, citing his reformist credentials. Koizumi pledged to focus on stabilizing rice prices, even calling himself the “minister in charge of rice.” He vowed to overhaul decades-old policies that incentivized reduced production to prop up prices.   Critics say the delayed response to Eto’s gaffe shows weak leadership. The resignation comes just ahead of a planned no-confidence motion and crucial upper house elections in July. A Kyodo News poll Sunday showed Ishiba’s support at a record low 27.4% with nine out of 10 voters dissatisfied with the government response to high rice prices. Koizumi is the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi who pushed through reforms and government deregulation during his time leading Japan in the 2000s.

 

 

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. Dow opened around 370 points lower. In Asia, Japan -0.6%. Hong Kong +0.6%. China +0.2%. India +0.5%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris -0.8%. Frankfurt -0.4%.

 

Equities yesterday: 

— The Fed next meets June 17-18 and is widely expected to hold interest rates steady for a fourth straight meeting. Policymakers will also update their economic projections, offering fresh guidance on the likely path of inflation, employment, and interest rates.

 

— No recession forecasted, but rate cuts still off the table

Three Fed Bank presidents comment at confab

 

At the Atlanta Fed’s financial markets conference Tuesday evening, three Federal Reserve Bank presidents — Mary Daly (San Francisco), Beth Hammack (Cleveland), and Raphael Bostic (Atlanta) — delivered a unified message: economic uncertainty justifies patience, not policy shifts. “We’re in center position,” said Daly, emphasizing the need for flexibility without rushing decisions. Hammack echoed that restraint: “The best action we can take is to sit on our hands.” Bostic went further, stating, “I don’t have a recession in my outlook.”

 

All three highlighted the limitations of traditional data and pointed to a growing reliance on real-time sentiment tracking, including machine learning and textual analysis, to better anticipate shifts in the economy.

 

— White House economist downplays tariff-driven inflation risks

Stephen Miran says tariffs will not derail Fed policy or delay rate cuts

 

White House Chief Economist Stephen Miran said Tuesday that the impact of rising tariffs on U.S. inflation is likely to be minimal and short-lived, countering warnings from Federal Reserve officials about potential price pressures. Speaking on Bloomberg Television, Miran emphasized that imports make up only 14% of the U.S. economy and suggested that the administration’s ongoing tariff regime has not produced meaningful inflationary effects. “We have been introducing tariffs since day one of this administration,” Miran said. “There’s been no real meaningful effect on inflation.”

 

Miran pointed to the last three Consumer Price Index reports — including April’s 2.8% core inflation reading — as evidence that price pressures are moderating, with core inflation holding at its slowest pace since early 2021.

 

Still, Fed officials remain cautious. Chair Jerome Powell said recently that Trump’s new tariffs could be “short lived” but might also prove “more persistent,” prompting the central bank to hold off on interest rate cuts for now.

 

Miran, a former hedge fund strategist, noted that U.S. companies have options to source goods domestically or pivot to “countries that treat us better,” reducing inflationary risk. He acknowledged the potential for short-term volatility but insisted that over time the U.S. will “force the burden of the tariffs onto other countries.”

 

Looking ahead, Miran said falling inflation linked to the end of what he called the Biden administration’s “reckless” fiscal expansion will provide room to reduce interest rates. He linked long-run rate normalization to Republican policy goals: “We’re going to bring interest rates down through expanding the supply side of the economy,” he said, citing deregulation and the GOP’s tax package. “We get interest rates back to where they were pre-Covid, that’s another point off the deficit.”

 

At present, five-year Treasury yields sit at roughly 4.08%, more than double the 1.89% average seen between 2014 and 2019.

 

— Retailers choose their words carefully: navigating tariffs, pricing, and public perception

How retailers strategize and communicate on price hikes amid tariffs

 

Major U.S. retailers are facing a delicate balancing act as they respond to new tariffs and decide whether — and how — to raise prices. The challenge is not just about the economics of absorbing higher costs or passing them on, but also about the language and messaging used to explain these decisions to customers, investors, and policymakers.

 

Walmart has openly stated it will raise prices on some items due to tariffs, drawing a sharp rebuke from President Trump, who urged the company to "eat the tariffs" rather than pass costs to consumers.

 

Home Depot, in contrast, told analysts it does not plan to raise prices in response to tariffs, citing its scale, supplier relationships, and operational efficiencies as buffers. However, executives left room for nuance, indicating that while most prices will remain stable, some categories or products could still see increases.

 

Most U.S. companies are expected to raise prices, according to research from Allianz, making communication strategies more critical.

 

AG MARKETS

 

— Argentina extends wheat, barley export tax relief

Corn and soybeans left out despite industry pressure

 

Argentina has extended its reduced export tax rates for wheat and barley until March 31, 2026, in a move designed to support planting and boost export competitiveness. Economy Minister Luis Caputo confirmed the extension on X, highlighting the government's continued focus on bolstering its grain sector.

 

The tax break, which reduced wheat export duties from 12% to 9.5% as of January 2025, has already had a significant impact. Wheat exports surged by 171% in volume and 126% in dollar terms compared to the previous year, generating $2.37 billion in revenue for 2024. This surge in Argentine wheat exports has contributed to a 10% drop in international wheat prices since March 2025, underlining Argentina’s growing influence as a global wheat supplier. Wheat and barley combined generate roughly $4 billion annually and represent 5% of the country's total exports.

 

However, the relief does not apply to corn, soybeans, sunflower, or sorghum — disappointing producers who face continued duties on those crops. The policy is expected to further entrench Argentina’s global competitiveness in wheat markets, where export-driven supply pressure has contributed to a 10% decline in world wheat prices since March 2025.

 

— NASS to end standalone state and regional crop reports

Weekly releases consolidated into national format, data still available via Quick Stats

 

Starting May 30, 2025, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will stop publishing state- and region-specific versions of its weekly Crop Progress reports. In a notice included with Monday’s release, NASS emphasized this change affects formatting — not data availability. “This would include the state and regional weekly Crop Progress reports historically released by our regional field offices,” said Anthony Prillaman, Acting Chief of the Crops Branch at NASS. “The only exception would be for situations where we have existing project agreements that require us to publish those reports.”

 

Of note: While tailored publications will cease, NASS confirmed that all state- and regional-level data will remain accessible in the national reports and through its online Quick Stats database (link).

 

— China deploys emergency measures as heatwave threatens crops and water supply

Drones, irrigation adjustments, and reservoir management activated across key provinces

 

China is battling a punishing heatwave across its northern regions, with temperatures forecast to exceed 40°C (104°F) through Thursday. In response, authorities have launched an emergency campaign to protect critical food production and ensure water security in hard-hit provinces such as Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan, and Hubei.

 

Key mitigation efforts include:

• Drone-based crop surveillance: Technicians are using sensor-equipped drones to assess soil moisture and leaf hydration, enabling more targeted irrigation.
• Smart irrigation tactics: Farmers are being instructed to implement light, root-level watering to reduce waste and maximize crop resilience. 
• Reservoir and water flow management: Water authorities are optimizing reservoir releases to sustain both residential use and farmland irrigation. 
• Crop stage sensitivity: The winter wheat crop is at its grain-filling stage, a phase highly vulnerable to heat and drought—prompting intensified monitoring and intervention.

 

The National Meteorological Center has issued a yellow alert, China’s third highest, as officials race to blunt the agricultural and human toll of prolonged extreme heat.

 

— Agriculture markets yesterday:  

 

FARM POLICY

 

— GOP farm bill criticized by former Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.)

"Actions speak louder than words": Tester warns bill hurts both farmers and families

 

In a pointed MSNBC commentary (link), former Montana senator and longtime farmer Jon Tester sharply criticized the GOP-led House reconciliation bill and its proposed agriculture provisions. Tester, who spent five decades farming his family's northcentral Montana homestead, accused House Republicans of abandoning bipartisan tradition and endangering the longstanding urban-rural coalition that has underpinned past Farm Bills.

 

“The recent farm provisions proposed by the GOP-led House of Representatives should give all Americans pause,” Tester wrote. “Perhaps most alarmingly, those same House Republicans who decry socialism on one hand are pushing American farmers to take more money from the government and less from the marketplace. That sounds a lot like socialism to me.”

 

Tester warned the bill would:

• Shift SNAP costs to states, worsening food insecurity and passing the blame
• Expand farm subsidies without addressing market competition
• Hurt demand for commodities by cutting nutrition support
• Ignore bipartisan negotiation, further polarizing farm policy

 

He also amplified concerns from Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), who said: “Instead of working with Democrats to lower costs from President Trump’s across-the-board tariffs, House Republicans have decided to pull the rug out from under families by cutting the SNAP benefits that 42 million Americans rely on... That’s shameful.”

 

Tester concluded by urging Republicans to “go back to the drawing board” and produce a farm bill that reflects 21st-century needs and reinforces — not undermines — rural America.

 

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

 

— Oil prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday after reports that Israel could be preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities raised fears of a supply disruption in the Middle East. Brent futures rose 79 cents, 1.2%, to $66.17 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 82 cents, 1.3%, to $62.85. A CNN report, citing U.S. intelligence, said it wasn’t clear whether Tel Aviv has made a final decision. Last week, President Trump suggested the U.S. is “getting close” to a deal to curb Iran’s nuclear activities, but later Iran’s top negotiator shared hopes for a “more realistic approach” to talks.

 

— Oil prices slipped Tuesday amid geopolitical tensions and Chinese demand worries

Iran nuclear talks stumble, Russian sanctions tighten, U.S. inventory draw eyed

 

Brent crude fell 16 cents (0.2%) to $65.38 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dipped 13 cents (0.2%) to $62.56, as markets digested a mix of geopolitical friction and weakening Chinese economic signals.

 

Drivers:

• Iran nuclear deadlock: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected U.S. demands to halt uranium enrichment, casting doubt on a deal that might have brought 300,000–400,000 bpd of Iranian oil back to market. 
• Russia sanctions escalate: The EU and UK imposed new sanctions after a Trump/Putin call failed to yield a ceasefire. Ukraine pushed G7 allies to slash the Russian oil price cap to $30/barrel. 
• China demand concerns: Sluggish Chinese industrial output and retail sales darkened demand outlooks. 
• U.S. Fed and inventories: Traders anticipate two Fed rate cuts in 2025, potentially starting in September — supportive of oil via cheaper credit. Meanwhile, API and EIA reports this week are expected to show a 1.2-million-barrel crude draw, the third in four weeks but still under the five-year average.

 

— More stakeholders join EPA RFS debate

OMB schedules seven meetings on 2026 Renewable Fuel Standard Rule

 

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has now scheduled seven stakeholder meetings on the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) proposed Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) levels for 2026 and beyond. Key industry groups set to meet include:

 

May 22: National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA)

May 27: Fuels America

May 28: American Biogas Council

May 29: Amp Americas (on-farm dairy RNG developer)

June 2: Renewable Fuels Association (RFA)

June 3: Clean Fuels Alliance

June 4: Renewable Natural Gas Coalition

 

In addition, OMB has scheduled June 5 and June 9 meetings on EPA’s separate final rule regarding the partial waiver of cellulosic biofuel requirements, with Amp Americas and RFA, respectively.

 

— Senate to vote today on blocking California gas car ban

Congressional showdown over California’s 2035 gasoline car ban

 

The Senate is preparing to vote this week on a bill to revoke federal waivers that allow California to enforce a ban on the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035. The measure, already passed by the House on May 1 with bipartisan support, challenges California’s authority to impose vehicle emissions standards stricter than federal rules.

 

At the heart of the controversy are EPA waivers granted during the Biden administration, which enabled California to require that 80% of new vehicle sales be electric by 2035 — a policy mirrored by 11 other states. While once supported by the auto industry, key manufacturers like General Motors have reversed course, citing sluggish EV sales, cost concerns, and tight timelines.

 

Industry groups warn the mandate could shrink consumer choice and raise vehicle prices, especially as trade tensions and tariffs strain global supply chains.

 

California Governor Gavin Newsom and state officials blasted the vote as an assault on state autonomy and pledged to defend the state’s clean air regulations. Legal experts note the effort may be moot: the Senate parliamentarian and Government Accountability Office have determined that the EPA waivers do not qualify for repeal under the Congressional Review Act (CRA), the mechanism being used for the vote.

 

Nevertheless, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is pushing ahead, underscoring broader national divides over climate regulation, federalism, and the direction of the auto sector.

 

TRADE POLICY

 

— U.S. companies rush to convert warehouses into bonded facilities

Tariff pressures drive surge in bonded warehouse conversions

 

U.S. companies are racing to convert warehouses into bonded facilities in a bid to delay hefty tariff payments on imported goods, especially from China, according to Reuters. Bonded warehouses allow merchandise to be stored for up to five years without immediate duties, offering importers cash flow relief and a hedge against volatile trade policy.

 

Why bonded warehousing is booming

• Tariff deferral strategy: With Chinese import duties reaching as high as 145% before recent rollbacks, bonded storage allows firms to wait before paying tariffs — only when goods are sold. 
• Cash flow management: Deferring tariff payments helps companies stagger costs rather than front-loading them at the point of import. 
• Trade policy volatility: The Trump administration’s fluctuating tariff stance has made tariff timing a critical strategic variable.

 

Costs and bottlenecks grow

• Capacity crunch: The U.S. has over 1,700 bonded warehouses, many of which are now full. Inquiries for bonded space have surged sixfold. 
• Soaring prices: Bonded storage now costs between $75–$150 per pallet/month, compared to $17.50 for standard warehousing. 
• Lengthy certification: Customs and Border Protection approval can now take six months or more, requiring high-security upgrades, recordkeeping systems, and bonds starting at $100,000.

 

Many firms see bonded warehousing as a stopgap, hoping for tariff relief. But if trade tensions ease, excess bonded capacity could lead to losses. Companies are also exploring foreign trade zones or rerouting imports through Mexico and Canada to minimize tariff exposure.

 

CONGRESS

— Virginia Congressman Gerry Connolly dies at 75

Family confirms passing after battle with cancer

 

Virginia Democrat and longtime U.S. Representative Gerry Connolly died this morning at the age of 75, according to a statement issued by his family and distributed by his office. Connolly, who represented Fairfax County and surrounding areas, passed away following a battle with esophageal cancer. His family’s statement described him as a devoted father, husband, brother, friend, and dedicated public servant. He had represented the state's 11th district since 2009.

 

Of note: He is the third House Democrat to die in less than six months. The vacancy will bring the House margin to 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats, with three empty seats on the left. That means Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who is currently trying to push through a party-line budget reconciliation bill, can afford to lose three Republicans and still pass the legislation. A bill fails on a tie.

 

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

 

— Musk pulls back on political spending

Billionaire says he’s “done enough” after nearly $300 million in GOP donations

 

Elon Musk announced he plans to spend “a lot less” on elections going forward, telling attendees at a conference yesterday, “I’ve done enough.” The Tesla and SpaceX CEO has donated nearly $300 million to President Trump and Republican candidates during the 2024 cycle and into this year, including key spending in Wisconsin. While Musk’s political activity and service in the Trump administration have raised his profile, they may also be affecting his business interests and drawing political blowback. Still, he did not rule out future mega-donations.

 

Of note: Musk shrugged off concerns about Tesla sales, which fell 13% in the first quarter from a year ago and have shown continuing weakness, particularly in Europe. The auto business has “already turned around,” he told the Bloomberg forum in Qatar, and they see no problem with demand. Musk created controversy as Trump’s advisor on slashing the federal government. He spends one to two days a week in Washington, and will be having dinner with Trump and meeting with cabinet officials this week, he told the Qatar audience. Asked if he regretted his political endeavors, Musk said “I did what needed to be done.”

 

— Golden seeks re-election in Maine’s 2nd district

Democrat declines statewide run, prepares for high-stakes House battle

 

Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) announced Tuesday he will seek re-election to Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, forgoing a potential 2026 bid for governor or U.S. Senate against current Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine). The decision keeps Golden — one of the few Democrats to repeatedly win in a Trump-carried district — at the center of one of the country’s most competitive House races.

 

Golden, a Marine veteran and centrist Democrat, has represented the rural 2nd District since 2018. He’s consistently outperformed the top of the Democratic ticket, relying on crossover support and a reputation for independent voting — frequently breaking with his party on fiscal and energy issues. Despite pressure from national Democrats to consider a statewide campaign, Golden said his priority is helping the party reclaim the House: “The surest way to restore balance in Washington is for Democrats to win back the House.”

 

LePage enters the race, Theriault bows out. Golden is expected to face a tough rematch — this time against former Republican Governor Paul LePage, who announced his candidacy with backing from 2024 GOP nominee Austin Theriault. “I am going to do what it takes to make sure no one like Paul LePage blusters his way into Congress,” Golden said.

 

LePage, known for his combative style and deep base among conservative voters, enters with high name recognition and a potentially energized Trump-aligned electorate.

 

Golden’s announcement drew praise from top Democrats, labor leaders, and local officials. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) called him “uniquely suited” to win the seat again. Yet some progressive activists remain skeptical. Former Secretary of State and current State Auditor Matthew Dunlap is considering a primary challenge, citing concerns over Golden’s moderate positions and limited outreach to the party’s base.

 

As chair of the Blue Dog PAC, Golden is actively involved in recruiting candidates and raising funds for red and swing-district Democrats. His leadership and electoral resilience have earned him a national spotlight in party strategy discussions.

 

With Maine’s 2nd District once again a national battleground, both parties are expected to pour millions into the race. Golden’s path to victory will depend on retaining bipartisan appeal while fending off challenges from both the left and right. His performance could offer critical insights into Democrats’ ability to compete in rural, working-class districts in 2026 and beyond.

 

HPAI/BIRD FLU

 

— Genetic link confirmed between Brazil's poultry farm and zoo bird flu outbreaks

Same H5N1 strain identified, but transmission pathway remains unclear

 

Genetic testing has confirmed that Brazil’s first outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) on a commercial poultry farm in Rio Grande do Sul shares the same H5N1 strain as cases detected in zoo animals within the same state. However, authorities emphasize that a direct epidemiological link between the two outbreaks has not yet been established.

 

Outbreak Details

• Poultry farm (Montenegro): The outbreak, confirmed on May 15, led to the death or culling of 17,000 chickens at a facility operated by Vibra Foods, a subsidiary of Tyson Foods. 
• Zoo (Sapucaia do Sul): Approximately 100 waterfowl, including black-necked swans, died at a zoo located 50 km (30 miles) from the farm. No healthy animals were culled, as protocols for wild birds differ from commercial flocks.

 

Genetic analysis and uncertainties. Lab sequencing revealed both outbreaks involved the H5N1 subtype, but officials caution that shared genetics alone do not prove transmission between the sites. Rosane Collares, a director at Rio Grande do Sul’s agricultural department, noted the proximity of the outbreaks but stressed that investigations are ongoing to determine whether the cases are connected or coincidental.

 

Containment and trade impact

• Local measures: The affected farm was disinfected, and a 10-km surveillance zone was established. The zoo isolated the contaminated area and restricted staff access.
• Global repercussions: At least 17 countries suspended poultry imports from Brazil, including China, Mexico, and South Korea. The U.S. maintained egg imports but restricted genetic material from Rio Grande do Sul.

 

Authorities aim to declare Brazil HPAI-free if no new cases emerge within 28 days after containment. 

 

TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS

 

— 4% of U.S. truckers lack valid licenses, raising safety alarms

Experts call for stricter enforcement as compliance failures mount

 

A recent analysis by trucking expert Adam Wingfield, drawing on Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) data, has revealed a troubling safety gap on American highways: roughly 4% of truck drivers are operating without a valid Commercial Driver’s License (CDL). The findings suggest that tens of thousands of drivers may be behind the wheel of heavy commercial vehicles without the training or credentials legally required.

 

A CDL certifies that a driver is qualified to handle large or complex vehicles, including trucks over 26,000 pounds, hazardous material carriers, and vehicles transporting more than 16 passengers. Driving without a CDL is not just illegal — it dramatically increases the risk of accidents, particularly due to inexperience in maneuvering and safety protocols.

 

The license gap is part of a broader compliance problem in the industry. During the 2025 Roadcheck Week inspections, more than half of trucks had violations, and nearly one in five was placed out of service. The first quarter of 2025 alone saw 645 fatal trucking accidents, underscoring the stakes involved.

 

Experts say the perceived driver shortage has led to lower hiring standards, with some carriers cutting corners on training and verification. But the risks extend beyond legal penalties, which can include jail time and permanent bans from commercial driving. “Every unlicensed driver on the road is a threat not just to themselves, but to everyone they share the highway with,” Wingfield said.

 

Industry groups and safety advocates are now urging federal and state regulators to step up enforcement, improve CDL tracking systems, and hold employers accountable for verifying credentials before hiring.

 

WEATHER

 

— NWS outlook: Severe Weather and Flash Flooding expected over the Ohio

Valley/Mid-Atlantic today... ...Above average temperatures across southern tier states and West; below average temperatures from Northern Plains to Northeast/Mid-Atlantic.

 

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