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Happy Friday.....I think?!?!
The attack by the bears continues! Markets got crushed yesterday and the sellers are at it again this morning. Dow futures down another 1,000 points and the S&P futures are lower by 130. NASDAQ down another 475. Markets around the world are also getting hit as traders and investors are trying to figure out where the bottom is after the Trump tariff announcements Tuesday afternoon. If I can say one thing, I have been saying for many, many months that the markets were way overbought, and while it is never easy to live through when it is happening (unless you are short), drops like this will present fantastic buying opportunities in the future, so you should take this as a positive.
As far as today, honestly, I need to say it just one more time...some people should sit this one out again as things remain out of control and completely volatile and unhinged.
Because of this huge drop again this morning, I can't even show you the profile pic in relation to where we are currently trading, so I have taken a daily picture of the ES (S&P) 2025 highs at 6225 to the current 2025 lows as of this morning at 5210.50. The S&P is down over 16% and the NASDAQ is down over 21%.
Overnight inventory is 100% net short again, however, we are way off of the overnight lows, meaning a large portion of the fade higher has already happened. This makes the play at the open a complete coin toss! But for some context, if price can stay above the first 5 minute low and price can get above 5325, then look for further moves higher. If price stays below the first 5 minute high, and price gets below 5300, then look for lower targets. With the VIX now above 37, the intraday volatility will be epic! Be careful or sit on your hands!! Futures are trading at 5300 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: A new VPOC was added yesterday above at 5690. We also got very close to the 5420 target as yesterday's low was 5428.50. 5420 was below but is now above because of this sharp drop. As a reminder, VPOC's ONLY can get taken out during the regular trading hours, not in the overnight session. 5255 is the next closest VPOC below. We now have 8 above and 20 below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5415 - 5435
Key Levels: 5325 ON 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5200 - 5175 then 5140 - 5210
/NQ upside target is: 18,500 - 18,850
Key Level: 18,375 Key
downside target is : 17,850 - 17,800
/RTY upside target is: 1870 - 1890
downside target is: 1820 - 1800
Economic Data: Red Star Event Today
Employment Situation @ 8:30 AM ET
Jerome Powell Speaks @ 11:25 AM ET
Michael Barr Speaks @ 12:00 PM ET
Christopher Waller Speaks @ 12:45 PM ET
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5400-5410 with Supply at $5550
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5550 looking to play a break and retest above $5560 long targeting $5700 then $5720
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5550 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5500 targeting $5455 then a break down into $5430s
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SPY Key demand at then at $536-537 with Supply above at $548
Bullish Sellers trapped above $548 looking to play a break and retest from $549 long targeting $551 then a breakout mid high $553s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $547 after a break and retest below $546 targeting $544s then a breakdown into $545s
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/NQ Key demand at $17350 with Supply above at $19100-19000
Bullish Sellers trapped above $19100 looking to play a break and retest above $19150 long targeting $19300s then a breakout back into low $19400s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $19000 looking to play short from $18990 targeting a breakdown $18700s then $18600s
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QQQ Key Demand at $444-446 with Supply at $462-460
Bullish Sellers trapped above $461 looking to play a break and retest from $462 targeting $463 then a breakout into low mid $464s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $460 looking to play a break and retest short from $459 targeting $457s then $456s
Have a great day and try to have a relaxing weekend!!
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