And now for my soapbox…IMHO—How I visualize the next 12 months…
I have held off writing anything specifically on what I see as the “future”—the evolution back to what we knew before March---meetings and events of thousands, or even hundreds, of attendees, indoors, nationwide and internationally. I have never held a position in a large and influential planning company, supplier company or industry association, I have never won a national or global award in the industry, I am not an academic at a college or university---so why should my observations and opinion have weight? Who do I think I am to add noise to the discussion?
Sometimes when I am presenting and teaching, I will make reference without really thinking about it, to my thoughts, which has brought some interesting reactions. The first week of April I was on a panel on the return of travel to Thailand, with the question to me being, when will the US Meeting Market return to Thailand. And now some people have directly contacted me to ask my views. So it’s time to write something, even if it is only the readers of my EGuide who see it. You apparently have some respect and faith in my thoughts.
Meeting planners are stuck in the constant position of "what if" and it is slowly killing them, and the quality of meetings.
And the suppliers suffer too. I mentioned a few weeks ago that I am seeing planners go through Plan A-D:
A. The in-person meeting that was scheduled prior to March.
B. The “oh maybe we will have to do a virtual” process in
during March – May 2020
C. The “oh wait that geographical area is opening or says it will be
by then” – back to in person
D. No chance---they are not opening (or closing back down)---we
must have a virtual meeting.
All of us, no matter what role we play in the meeting and event industry have one responsibility: to create the best meetings and events, that produce ROI for everyone.
When we live in a constant state of indecision we can’t do that.
Again, this is my opinion based on what I am reading and hearing in and about the US, from a variety or sources, some in the industry, but most outside. This is not meant to be a political statement at all. And you do not have to agree with me, and I am not trying to persuade you.
I do not see National face to face meetings in the US, with hundreds of people and more, coming back before August 2021. Do I think there will be live meetings? Yes, primarily small, 50 and under, some 100 and under, and in certain locations 250. Maybe 500 if there is some creative arranging.
Most will be regional as I have mentioned before. It is very similar in that way to after September 11, 2001. Many (most?) people did not, and do not, want to fly. They do not want to be far from their families so they can get back if need be. Meetings that are in a destination they can drive to in 5 hours or less, and probably in a smaller meetings market, because many people are also adverse (again just like after 9/11) to large cities. This is why I have mentioned it’s time for planner to research and become familiar with smaller cities (which I tend to love and have mentioned many times). “Smaller” means different things to different people, but the point is looking at options you may not have considered in the past. I had shared this link a few months ago, but here is a great way to determine what is any number of miles away from a location---by drawing a circle from a specific point. Allow you to figure out what a good location would be for a drive in meeting.
Here is where each state currently stands on allowing people to gather:
Here’s one of the challenges even with that. Because the laws/rules/guidelines and spike of the virus are so different state to state and region to region (and minute to minute) ---you may have to consider having a state meeting. For example, you cannot ask someone to come to a 1-3 day meeting, which will cause them to have to quarantine for 14 days before or after (or both), the meeting. Besides the time—who is going to pay the expenses? And many adjoining states have those in place. Here is a link that constantly updates the quarantine situation in states:
And if you are bringing people together, especially from out of state you need to be aware of the mask requirements which have been changing tremendously over the past month. Consider it part of your initial information, and your “Know Before You Go”
There is great hope, and maybe some reality, that a vaccine will be created by December 31, 2020. There have been many articles about this, and some are in very active testing on people. Having the vaccine and getting it used is another thing. We have learned that we have large supply change issues, because they are based on the country and world operating the way it did. There has been lots of focus and money put into finding a vaccine that will work. There had not been a distribution plan, although I saw today (August 16, 2020) that has been determined who will handle it:
According to Dr. Fauci, the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, 70-85% of the population need to get the vaccination for us to move back to living without a constant fear for resurgence
In recent polls 30% surveyed said they would not get the vaccine.
In other words it’s not only developing a vaccine, but making sure enough people have had it. The minimum timeframe I’ve seen on that time estimate is 6 months, so June/July. Here is more on the vaccine
I am watching our own industry’s national and global meetings, except MPI, make decisions to go virtual, at least through December. That includes GBTA which was to be November 7-11 in Colorado. One of the biggest meeting/tradeshows in the country, CES (Consumer Electronic Show) you probably know is going virtual. If that event of all events, in Vegas, is announcing for January...I think it is very telling for Q1.
I really believe we will be doing virtual for the next 12 months, and the transition will include hybrid.
Although international travel will begin to pick up, first with personal travel and then some business travel, large Global meetings will probably not return until 2022. I said one day in a presentation that I did not see our industry returning to what we would call “normal” –in other words what it was like in February and the 12 months before, till 2023.Shortly thereafter I read an article that IATA was forecasting 2023 and now is saying 2024 for airlines travel.
I was sharing this with someone in the hotel industry the other days and she said they were being told 2024 for hotels.
And
Organizations have got to make these decisions now, so planners can plan the best virtual meetings. And yes, it is possible to create a phenomenal virtual meeting that brings great ROI for all involved. But planners, and the suppliers involved, cannot do that with one foot in and one foot out. Their time, focus and other resources are split, none of which result in the “best meeting possible”.
Planners this is where you can show your expertise, but you have to know how to show it and deliver it. Some events should be cancelled because you will not meet the goals and objectives—I had a meeting planner told me the other day she announced that to her organization. She started with “Not many planners would suggest cancelling a meeting, but I told them a virtual version would not meet the goals and objectives”’ Don’t just tell them, show them as she did. And then work on recreating another virtual even that can meet them—if it is possible. The key is to “recreate not replicate” ---my mantra for the past few months. Don’t just try to put your live meeting, virtual. Recreate it—yes around the goals and objectives.
Suppliers I know this is not what you want to hear either. But this is where you find your expertise in this new world---and possibly even more importantly, your creativity. How can your product or service work in the (temporary) new world? Or what else can you create that will? I’ve been amazed at what some people have created.
And here is an interesting side note from a planner who is “deconstructing” her national meetings, to a series of regional meetings. She is not traveling to all of them, so she will be hiring planners in those areas. Stay connected to your network so you know if any companies are doing that in your area.
I sit and think sometimes “What is my role right now? How can I support? How can I help”
I have decided because of the work I do, it is to prepare others, in and out of our industry, to be truly ready to bring our industry out of this darkness to a newer better version of what we are. I know many of you have been soaking up education in every way you can---excellent idea. Make sure you also know how you would apply it at work, and how to voice that in an interview and on the job. We all have to be prepared for every opportunity that comes along, and possibly create some. We have hit a major “RESET” button, so expecting all the things that worked before, whether it be creating a meeting or looking for a job—have changed.
One of my favorite quotes is Albert Einstein’s definition of insanity:
“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”
I have that conversation with myself frequently when I am frustrated nothing is working. It usually slaps me in the face that I am doing exactly that. What do you need to change? What can you change---about you, meetings and events, the hospitality industry? We all know the value of meetings, and as we come out to the other side of the pandemic, and even as we are working our way there, we need them more than ever.
