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Good morning friends.
2 down 2 to go. As we mentioned yesterday, with lower volumes into the end of the year......"intra-day swings can be violent. Short squeezes and liquidation breaks can seemingly come out of nowhere!!" And that is exactly what we saw yesterday multiple times.
As the DOW and NDX continue to make new highs day after day, and the SPX and RUT are at 52 week highs, no one is in a hurry to sell anything! Especially with big gains this year, traders and investors want to kick their tax liabilities down the road and out a year, so if any selling does start, we will be looking towards next week...start of 2024!
Now one thing that is interesting, back in 2022, the first trading day of the year was the high for the year!!! Will 2024 be a repeat of that move? Obviously there is no way to know that for sure but it is something to think about! Main take away for today is that bulls are still firmly in control of this market and the euphoria and complacency in the market remains epic. (I have only seen this a few times during my trading career.)
Value has stayed elevated and we continue one time framing higher now for the last five trading days.
No new VPOC yesterday however we still we still have 13 below us. Why is this relevant you ask? Think black coming up in roulette 15 times in a row! It is not the norm but obviously can happen! Odds don't favor it!!
/ES upside target is 4845-50
downside target is 4815-20
/NQ upside target is 17,165-185
downside target is 17,060-070
/RTY upside target is 2100-05
downside target is 2065-70
Futures are flat this morning at time of writing with overnight inventory balanced to net long. We are back inside of yesterdays range. 4831 will be one key line in the sand (overnight low) then 4826.50 (1/2 back) then 4822. If we start losing these levels look for downside targets. If the buyers remain present, look for balance to higher.
Economic Data:
Pending home sales @ 10:00
Nat Gas Inventories @ 10:30
Crude Inventories @ 11:00
More Color.......
/ES - Consolidating inside Supply at $4845- 4830 where we have been seeing Supply
flip to Demand. Ideally I want to see a break and retest from key demand at $4820-4810
- Buyers at the open getting trapped with price holding below $4840 for a break
and retest playing short targeting $4828.39 first then $4820
SPY - Selling off from Supply between $478-477. If prices are pushed back down and
hold key demand at $476 I would like to play a break and retest Long. If sellers become
trapped and price holds below $478 I would like to play a break and retest short.
- Supply flips to demand playing long at $477 targeting new HOD
- Trapped buyers between $477-$478 playing short targeting $476.50
- Sell off at the open with price holding above $476 playing long
SPX - Consolidating at Supply $4780 -$4790 , If sellers are aggressive at the open I
want to see a pull back to Supply before playing short. If buyers appear I want to see
them defend key Demand at $4750-$4760 to play long targeting $4778 first then HOD
- Supply flips to demand playing long if price holds above $4785
- Price below $4748 leaves more room for massive sell off
/NQ - Overnight chop inside Supply at $17160- $17140 . Can only play short if price
falls below $17120 targeting the next Demand zone at $17100 - $17090. Price holding
above$17130 gives room for Supply to flip to Demand playing long targeting new HOD.
QQQ - Small Gap Ups inside Supply flipping to Demand if price holds above $412.
Personally, weird price action overnight into pre market : no clean setups
AMD - Gap up breaking out of Supply at $145-$146 making new HOD pre market
TSLA - Gap Up Into Supply overnight between $263-$265
AAPL - Gap Up overnight at $193 ( middle range : no man's land)
MSFT - Gap Up into Supply at $374 - $376
GOOGL- Gap Up overnight at $140
Have a great day!
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