The 2026 Governor Races: A State-by-State Outlook
With 36 governorships on the ballot November 3, the 2026 elections could alter the balance of power in state capitals. Nineteen races are for open seats, while several incumbents face serious challenges. The broad picture favors continuity in most state capitals, but the handful of closely divided races could still produce meaningful changes. Georgia is the pure toss-up, while Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada and Wisconsin form the next tier of contests most likely to determine which party gains ground nationally.
The candidates below are the current Democratic and Republican general-election contenders highlighted in the latest race coverage. Projections reflect average assessments from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Pluribus News.
The most competitive races
Georgia: Republican Rick Jackson and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms are competing to succeed term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp.
Projection: Toss-up. Neither party has a decisive advantage in what appears to be the country's closest governor's race.
Alaska: Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins faces Republicans Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor in Alaska's ranked-choice general election.
Projection: Tilt Democratic. Kreiss-Tomkins has a narrow advantage, but the three-way Republican field leaves considerable uncertainty.
Iowa: Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand faces Republican Zach Lahn for the open seat.
Projection: Tilt Democratic. Sand is slightly favored despite Iowa's recent Republican lean, making this one of Democrats' strongest pickup opportunities.
Ohio: Democrat Amy Acton faces Republican Vivek Ramaswamy for the seat.
Projection: Tilt Republican. The state's partisan fundamentals narrowly favor Ramaswamy, although current polling shows Acton capable of winning.
Nevada: Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo faces Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford.
Projection: Tilt Republican. Lombardo's incumbency gives him a small edge in a state where elections are routinely decided by narrow margins.
Wisconsin: Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany are competing to succeed retiring Gov. Tony Evers.
Projection: Tilt Democratic. Crowley holds a modest advantage, but Wisconsin's history of close statewide elections keeps the race highly competitive.
Competitive races with a clearer favorite
Arizona: Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs faces Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs.
Projection: Lean Democratic. Hobbs is favored, but Arizona's closely divided electorate leaves Biggs a credible path.
Michigan: Democrat Jocelyn Benson faces Republican John James for the open governorship.
Projection: Lean Democratic. Benson has the advantage in current polling and forecasts, though Michigan remains competitive enough for the race to tighten.
Oregon: Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek faces Republican Christine Drazan.
Projection: Lean Democratic. Kotek is favored, but Drazan's strength in their previous contest makes this more competitive than Oregon's federal voting pattern might suggest.
Florida: Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds faces former Republican congressman David Jolly, now running as a Democrat.
Projection: Lean Republican. Donalds has the edge, but the race is closer than Florida's recent statewide results would normally imply.
Kansas: Republican Ty Masterson faces Democrat Cindy Holscher for the seat.
Projection: Lean Republican. Kansas' partisan fundamentals favor Masterson, although Democrats' recent success in gubernatorial contests prevents the race from being considered safe.
Texas: Republican Gov. Greg Abbott faces his Democratic challenger in a race that has become more competitive than expected.
Projection: Lean Republican. Abbott remains favored, but polling suggests the contest warrants attention rather than an assumption of an easy reelection.
Races where an upset remains possible
Nebraska: Republican Gov. Jim Pillen faces Democrat Lynne Walz.
Projection: Likely Republican. Pillen is favored, although unusual signs of competitiveness have moved the race out of the safest category.
New Hampshire: Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte faces Democratic Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.
Projection: Likely Republican. Ayotte has a clear advantage, but New Hampshire's independent-minded electorate can produce late movement.
Oklahoma: Republican Mike Mazzei faces Democratic House Minority Leader Cindy Munson.
Projection: Likely Republican. Mazzei is favored, though the race is receiving more attention than a typical Oklahoma gubernatorial election.
Vermont: Republican Gov. Phil Scott faces Democrat Amanda Janoo.
Projection: Likely Republican. Scott's personal popularity continues to outweigh Vermont's strong Democratic preference in federal elections.
Democratic-favored races
California: Democrat Xavier Becerra faces Republican Steve Hilton.
Projection: Solid Democratic. Becerra is overwhelmingly favored to succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Colorado: Democratic Attorney General Phil Weiser faces Republican Victor Marx.
Projection: Solid Democratic. Colorado's recent statewide voting pattern gives Weiser a commanding advantage.
Connecticut: Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont faces Republican Ryan Fazio.
Projection: Solid Democratic. Lamont is strongly favored to win another term.
Hawaii: Democratic Gov. Josh Green faces Republican Gary Cordery.
Projection: Solid Democratic. Green enters the closing stretch with a decisive advantage.
Illinois: Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker faces Republican Darren Bailey.
Projection: Solid Democratic. Pritzker is heavily favored in a rematch of the 2022 contest.
Maine: Democrat Hannah Pingree faces Republicans Robert Charles and Randy Wilcox in the open-seat contest.
Projection: Solid Democratic. Pingree is the clear favorite.
Maryland: Democratic Gov. Wes Moore faces Republican Dan Cox.
Projection: Solid Democratic. Moore is expected to win comfortably.
Massachusetts: Democratic Gov. Maura Healey faces Republican Michael Minogue.
Projection: Solid Democratic. Healey is overwhelmingly favored.
Minnesota: The open-seat election is expected to remain in Democratic hands.
Projection: Solid Democratic. The state's political environment gives the Democratic nominee a commanding advantage.
New Mexico: Democrat Deb Haaland faces Republican Gregg Hull for the seat.
Projection: Solid Democratic. Haaland is strongly favored to succeed term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham.
New York: Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul faces Republican Bruce Blakeman.
Projection: Solid Democratic. Blakeman may perform well in parts of suburban New York, but Hochul remains the clear statewide favorite.
Pennsylvania: Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro faces Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity.
Projection: Solid Democratic. Shapiro's approval ratings and broad electoral coalition make him a strong favorite despite Pennsylvania's battleground status.
Rhode Island: The open-seat race is expected to remain under Democratic control.
Projection: Solid Democratic. Republicans have not demonstrated a viable route to an upset.
Republican-favored races
Alabama: Republican U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville faces former Democratic U.S. Sen. Doug Jones.
Projection: Solid Republican. Jones gives Democrats a recognizable nominee, but Alabama's partisan alignment makes Tuberville the prohibitive favorite.
Arkansas: Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders faces Democratic state Sen. Fred Love.
Projection: Solid Republican. Sanders is expected to win another term comfortably.
Idaho: Republican Gov. Brad Little faces Democrat Terri Pickens Manweiler.
Projection: Solid Republican. Little is overwhelmingly favored.
South Carolina: Democrat Jermaine Johnson faces the Republican nominee in the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster.
Projection: Solid Republican. The Republican nominee is heavily favored.
South Dakota: Republican Gov. Larry Rhoden faces Democrat Dan Ahlers.
Projection: Solid Republican. Rhoden is strongly favored to retain the governorship.
Tennessee: Republican U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn faces Democrat Jerri Green.
Projection: Solid Republican. Blackburn enters the general election with a decisive structural advantage.
Wyoming: Republican Eric Barlow faces Democrat Ken Casner.
Projection: Solid Republican. Barlow is overwhelmingly favored in the nation's most Republican-leaning state.
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