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State Legislatures: National Balance of Power

What the 2026 Elections Could Mean for Control of State Governments

The 2026 state legislative elections could reshape the balance of political power across the country. With thousands of legislative seats on the ballot, both parties have opportunities to gain control of individual chambers, strengthen existing majorities or lose their ability to pass legislation without bipartisan support.

Republicans currently have a larger overall presence in state government, but several competitive legislative races could create opportunities for Democrats to narrow that advantage. The outcome of these elections will help determine which party controls state legislative agendas heading into 2027.

What the National Numbers Show



The 2026 elections are shaping up to be highly competitive by historical standards. According to Ballotpedia's October 30 competitiveness report, 6,137 state legislative seats across 46 states will be contested on November 3.

Key findings include:

• 66%: The share of seats with both Democratic and Republican candidates competing in the general election.
• 17%: The share of seats considered open, with no incumbent running.
• 18: The number of state legislative chambers identified as battlegrounds.

Historically, an average of eight state legislative chambers changed party control during even-year election cycles between 2010 and 2024. However, only two chambers changed hands in each of the 2020 and 2024 elections.

The 2026 elections will test whether the current political environment produces a larger shift in legislative control or continues the recent trend of relatively limited changes in party majorities.

The Current Balance of Power



Republicans enter the 2026 elections with a larger overall presence in state government. One important measure of that influence is the number of state government trifectas, where a single party controls the governorship, state House and state Senate.

Current breakdown:

• Republicans: 23 state government trifectas.
• Democrats: 16 state government trifectas.
• Divided government: 11 states.

Although Republicans currently hold more trifectas, Democrats have opportunities to change the balance in several competitive states. Legislative victories in states such as Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin could shift control of individual chambers and potentially create new Democratic trifectas.

For Republicans, the priority will be defending existing majorities, maintaining supermajorities where possible and preventing Democrats from gaining control of additional state legislatures.

The Most Important Legislative Races to Watch

Several states stand out because relatively small changes in legislative seats could determine control of an entire chamber.

1. Arizona: Democrats are seeking control of both legislative chambers, which could potentially give them unified control of state government.
2. Michigan: Democrats are looking to reclaim the state House and maintain their majority in the Senate.
3. Minnesota: Democrats are attempting to break the 67-67 tie in the state House while defending their narrow Senate majority.
4. Wisconsin: Democrats have an opportunity to take control of the Assembly, potentially ending Republican control of both legislative chambers.
5. Georgia: Democrats are competing to take control of the state House, although Republicans currently hold substantial majorities in both chambers.
6. North Carolina: Democrats are seeking to break the Republican legislative majority and change the balance of power in a state where Democrats hold the governorship.
7. Pennsylvania: Republicans are defending their Senate majority while Democrats are attempting to maintain their narrow advantage in the state House.
8. Alaska: The state House is a key battleground, where a change in numerical party control could affect legislative leadership and coalition arrangements.

What Could Change in 2027

The biggest question heading into Election Day is whether Democrats can translate their opportunities in competitive legislative districts into actual changes in chamber control.

A Democratic gain in states such as Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin could significantly alter the balance of power in those states. At the same time, Republican victories in competitive districts would help preserve the party's existing legislative footprint.

Overall Outlook



Democrats have opportunities to make gains in several competitive state legislatures, particularly in the Midwest and Southwest. Republicans, meanwhile, enter the election cycle with more state government trifectas and majorities to defend, giving them a different set of challenges.

Ultimately, the 2026 elections will determine more than which party wins individual legislative seats. They will establish who controls state legislative agendas, influences budgets, advances policy priorities and has the power to approve or block major legislation heading into 2027.

The 2026 Attorney General Races: A State-by-State Outlook

With 30 state Attorney General offices on the ballot November 3, voters will have an opportunity to reshape the legal and political landscape across the country. These elections will determine who leads state law enforcement, represents states in major legal disputes, and oversees challenges to federal and state policies.

The broad picture suggests Democrats have opportunities to gain ground, particularly in the Midwest and several competitive Sun Belt states. Republicans, however, remain well positioned in many traditionally conservative states.

The Most Competitive Races

Michigan: Democrat Eli Savit faces Republican Doug Lloyd in an open-seat contest to succeed term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel. The race has attracted attention because of its large undecided vote and closely divided electorate.

Projection: Toss-up. This is one of the most uncertain Attorney General contests in the country. Neither candidate has established a sufficiently strong advantage to make a confident prediction.

Kansas: Republican Attorney General Kris Kobach faces Democrat Chris Mann in a rematch of their 2022 contest, which Kobach won narrowly.

Projection: Toss-up. Kobach has a slight advantage in the latest modeling, but Mann's previous performance and Kansas' competitive statewide environment make this a genuine contest.

Texas: Republican State Senator Mayes Middleton faces Democratic State Senator Nathan Johnson for the open seat.

Projection: Toss-up. Middleton holds a narrow advantage, but polling has shown a competitive race. Texas is one of the Republicans' most important opportunities to defend an open Attorney General position.

Competitive Races with a Clearer Favorite

Ohio: Democrat John Kulewicz faces Republican Keith Faber, the Ohio Auditor of State, for the open seat.

Projection: Lean Democratic. The latest forecast gives Kulewicz a modest advantage. However, Ohio's Republican-leaning political environment makes this a race Republicans could still win.

Iowa: Democrat Nate Willems faces Republican incumbent Attorney General Brenna Bird.

Projection: Lean Democratic. The latest statewide forecast gives Willems an advantage, although earlier polling showed Bird narrowly ahead. The competitive statewide political environment could influence this race.

Democratic-Favored Races

Arizona: Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes faces Republican State Senate President Warren Petersen.

Projection: Likely Democratic. Mayes benefits from incumbency and a favorable statewide forecast. Petersen remains a credible challenger, but Mayes enters Election Day with a meaningful advantage.

Georgia: Democrat Tanya Miller faces Republican State Senator Brian Strickland for the open seat being vacated by Republican Chris Carr.

Projection: Likely Democratic. Miller holds a substantial advantage in the latest forecast. Georgia's competitive political environment makes this an important race to watch, particularly with an open seat.

Nevada: Democrat Nicole Cannizzaro faces Republican Adriana Guzmán Fralick for the open seat.

Projection: Likely Democratic. Cannizzaro has a considerable advantage in the latest forecast. However, the absence of extensive public polling leaves room for uncertainty.

New York: Democratic Attorney General Letitia James faces Republican Saritha Komatireddy.

Projection: Likely Democratic. Komatireddy had a strong performance in the debate against James and has since been gaining momentum even in a largely blue state.

Minnesota: Democratic Attorney General Keith Ellison faces Republican Ron Schutz.

Projection: Likely Democratic. Ellison is favored, although his previous statewide victories have been relatively narrow. Minnesota's competitive political environment means Republicans cannot be dismissed.

Wisconsin: Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul faces Republican District Attorney Eric Toney in a rematch of their 2022 election.

Projection: Likely Democratic. Kaul holds a substantial advantage in the latest forecast. His incumbency and previous statewide performance put Democrats in a favorable position.

Races Where an Upset Remains Possible

Florida: Democratic former State Senator José Javier Rodríguez faces Republican incumbent Attorney General James Uthmeier.

Projection: Likely Republican. Uthmeier has the advantage, but polling has shown a competitive contest. Rodríguez has an opportunity to make the race closer than Florida's recent Republican voting patterns might suggest.

Nebraska: Democrat Jocelyn Brasher faces Republican incumbent Attorney General Mike Hilgers.

Projection: Solid Republican. Hilgers is heavily favored in a state that consistently leans Republican in statewide elections.

South Carolina: Democrat Richard Hricik faces Republican David Stumbo, an Eighth Circuit Solicitor.

Projection: Solid Republican. Stumbo is strongly favored, with the state's Republican political alignment giving Democrats a difficult path to victory.

Oklahoma: Democrat Nick Coffey faces Republican former State Representative Jon Echols for the open seat.

Projection: Solid Republican. Echols enters the contest with a substantial advantage based on Oklahoma's political environment.

Democratic-Favored Races

California: Democratic Attorney General Rob Bonta faces Republican Michael Gates.

Projection: Solid Democratic. Bonta is overwhelmingly favored in a state with a strong Democratic statewide voting history.

Colorado: Democrat Jena Griswold faces Republican Michael Allen for the open seat.

Projection: Solid Democratic. Griswold has a commanding advantage in the latest forecast, making Colorado one of Democrats' strongest opportunities to retain control.

Connecticut: Democratic Attorney General William Tong faces Republican John Bolton.

Projection: Solid Democratic. Tong is heavily favored to retain the office. Connecticut's statewide political environment strongly benefits Democrats.

Delaware: Democratic Attorney General Kathy Jennings faces Republican Dave Graham.

Projection: Solid Democratic. Jennings is overwhelmingly favored, with Democrats maintaining a significant statewide advantage.

Illinois: Democratic Attorney General Kwame Raoul faces Republican Bob Fioretti.

Projection: Solid Democratic. Raoul is strongly favored to win another term. Illinois' Democratic political alignment gives Republicans little room for an upset.

Maryland: Democratic Attorney General Anthony Brown faces Republican Jim Rutledge.

Projection: Solid Democratic. Brown is heavily favored to retain his position, with Maryland's statewide electorate giving Democrats a substantial advantage.

Massachusetts: Democratic Attorney General Andrea Campbell faces Republican Mike Walsh.

Projection: Solid Democratic. Campbell is overwhelmingly favored to win reelection.

New Mexico: Democratic Attorney General Raúl Torrez faces Republican Sam Kane.

Projection: Solid Democratic. Torrez is strongly favored to retain the office, with Democrats holding a substantial statewide advantage.

Rhode Island: Democrat Kimberly Ahern faces Republican Alan Gordon for the open seat.

Projection: Solid Democratic. Democrats are strongly favored to retain control of the office following the departure of term-limited Attorney General Peter Neronha.

Vermont: Democratic Attorney General Charity Clark faces Republican Edwin Kemon.

Projection: Solid Democratic. Clark is heavily favored in a state where Democrats maintain a significant statewide electoral advantage.

Republican-Favored Races

Alabama: Democrat Jeffrey McLaughlin faces Republican Katherine Robertson for the open seat.

Projection: Solid Republican. Robertson is heavily favored in one of the country's most reliably Republican states.

Arkansas: Republican incumbent Attorney General Tim Griffin is running without a Democratic opponent.

Projection: Solid Republican. Griffin is positioned to retain the office without a major-party general-election challenger.

Idaho: Democrat Lori Hickman faces Republican incumbent Attorney General Raúl Labrador.

Projection: Solid Republican. Labrador is overwhelmingly favored in a state where Republicans maintain a commanding statewide advantage.

North Dakota: Democrat Tim Lamb faces Republican incumbent Attorney General Drew Wrigley.

Projection: Solid Republican. Wrigley is heavily favored, with the state's Republican political alignment providing a substantial advantage.

South Dakota: Republican Lance Russell, a former state senator, is running without a Democratic opponent for the open seat.

Projection: Solid Republican. Russell is positioned to win the office without a Democratic general-election challenger.

The Bottom Line: What to Watch on Election Day

The 2026 Attorney General elections present several opportunities for changes in state-level political leadership.

The biggest battlegrounds are:

1. Michigan: A genuine toss-up for an open Attorney General seat.
2. Kansas: A competitive rematch that could determine whether Republicans retain the office.
3. Texas: An important open-seat contest where Republicans hold only a narrow advantage.
4. Ohio: A Democratic pickup opportunity.
5. Iowa: Another potential Democratic pickup opportunity.
6. Minnesota: An important race for Democrats to defend, despite Ellison's favorable forecast.

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