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Following the 23 June 2023, alleged Wagner rebellion against the Russian government and its march toward Moscow, reports emerged of an unusual number of migrants entering Belarus. At the time, these migrants were thought to be Wagner members in disguise, but TRAC had been unable to confirm this from our sources on the ground.
It is now clear that Wagner Group has not been dissolved as a result of the previous mutiny as announced by the Russian authorities, but has been regrouping in Belarus, where a training base housing a purported 5,000 mercenaries has already been established and is expanding in Tsel.
|  | TRAC contends that the Wagner 'relocation' to Belarus was not coincidental, but rather orchestrated as part of a large-scale tactic aimed at posing a threat to the bordering countries of Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia. In particular, it is highly likely that Wagner is focusing on capturing the Suwalki corridor, which separates Belarus from Kaliningrad and is a Russian province sitting between Poland and Lithuania along the Baltic Coast. | |
While this move would be aimed at linking Kaliningrad with Belarus and consequently, with Russia, the capture of the Suwalki corridor would cut off the Baltic States from Poland, which are all NATO members, preventing them from receiving land assistance.
President Putin alluded to as much, in a 21 July 2023 speech where he implicitly addressed the international community. In the address, Putin accused Poland of seizing parts of Lithuania during the 1919 Polish–Lithuanian War, which were lands historically belonging to Russia. If Putin did not have sights set on at least Lithuania, why bring up a land dispute over a century old?
Meanwhile, Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder and leader of Wagner, has changed the name of his private army from 'PMC Wagner Group' to 'The Wagner Group.' He further announced that recruitment has been suspended and that Wagner's field activity is focused only on Africa and training in Belarus. Furthermore, future tasks would be performed 'in the name of the greatness of Russia.'
It is noteworthy that by allowing the presence of Wagner within Belarus and receiving Russian nuclear weapons in its territory, President Lukashenko gains geopolitical place among the international community.
|  | Polish Snipers along the border with Belarus | |
As a result of the threat posed by the presence of Wagner in Belarus, Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia will very likely close their borders with Russia's ally our of the fear that paramilitaries will infiltrate Poland and the said Baltic countries in the guise of migrants.
After at least a hundred Wagner mercenaries were reportedly relocated to the border areas of Belarus, Minsk announced a joint exercise of the Wagner fighters and the Belarusian army near Brest, Poland. This joint exercise deployed both troops and snipers to the border with the Republic of Belarus. In a further escalation, on 26 July 2023, the 11th Wagner convoy reportedly arrived in Belarus with armored vehicles, which will very likely lead Poland to continue to fortify the border with Belarus, in order to prevent incidents with Wagner fighters from happening.
Despite Prigozhin's assertion that recruitment has been suspended, TRAC does not rule out that a recruitment campaign will begin soon in Belarus to form a mercenary reconnaissance-sabotage formation of battalion rank.
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TRAC Insight:
Libyan Arms Dealer, Bilah Kalakali and Russian PMC Wagner Forces Move From Menaka, Gao Region to Anderamboukane
on the Niger Border in Mali
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Photo of recently ousted General Oumar Tchaini, a presumed leader of the coup in Niger | |
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On 26 July 2023, soldiers from the Presidential Guard in Niger carried out a coup and locked the president in the presidential palace. The implications of this coup in Niger are far reaching.
The following day, on 27 July, TRAC received information from sources on the ground that a Libyan arms dealer named Bilah Kalakali was on his way to the Niger border crossing of Anderamboukane in Gao Region of Mali from Menaka. At the same time, Russian PMC Wagner Group forces were also on the move, no doubt to support the forces pulling the strings behind the scenes of the Niger coup.
This is the second time this year that Wagner has been involved in illicit dealings with Libyan contacts and there is no doubt that the same fighters housed at the Brak al-Shati base in Libya are now making their way to Niger alongside a Libyan contact who is also likely connected to the Wagner Uranium smuggling in Libya.
Wagner does not yet have a presence in Niger, but they are active in neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali. The paramilitary group capitalizes on failed African states and are known to seize opportunities of political instability, especially coups, to form alliances with the highest bidder. This was the case most recently in Sudan where a civil war broke out in April 2023 after a failed coup attempt by the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces (RSF). It should be noted that there are rumors that the RSF is backed by Wagner Group who have had their sights on the gold deposits in Sudan and, more importantly, in Niger.
The fact that Libyan weapons dealer, Kalakali, is travelling to the same place at the same time as the Wagner leads TRAC to deduce that they are working together at the behest of the Niger government. It should be incredibly concerning to the international community that Wagner are working with the very Niger officials who staged the coup.
TRAC further surmises that Wagner and company will be given access to the Tchibarakaten gold field in Niger's famed Agadez Region as payment for their services. This field is the largest functioning artisanal gold mine prospect in Niger. It sits on the border with Algeria, a porous border with well-established smuggling routes, both for humans and illicit goods/drug. It is also used to move Islamic State militants from Borno State, Nigeria, through Diffa, Niger, into Agadez and on toward Mali to reinforce ISGS.
Niger was long viewed as the poster child for West African nations living in peace despite the jihadist threats. This will certainly all change as the rule of law becomes obsolete, international borders are closed and the fate of ordinary Nigeriens hangs in the balance. Now, alongside the threat from Islamist violence, locals will have to contend with Wagner committing war crimes on behalf of the military while trying to survive in one of the driest nations in Africa in the face of climate change.
In terms of Wagner, despite Vladimir Putin's order for the group to disband, TRAC is confident that the Wagner forces on the ground will simply split off into independent cells and continue operating in the most remote parts of Africa. As such, Wagner founder and leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin has already announced that part of the group's field of activity is focused on Africa.
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TRAC Incident Report:
Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA) Leads an Assassination Attempt on a Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) Commander in Nawabshah, Sindh, Pakistan
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Partial image of the Incident and claim | |
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On 01 August 2023, Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA) members attempted to assassinate a commander of the long-standing jihadist group in Pakistan, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). While it is not clear if the assassination actually killed the LeT commander, Sadar Hussain Arain, this assault represents SRA's attempt at gaining the upper hand in the crowded jihadist landscape of Pakistan.
While it is in line for SRA to attack what they refer to as 'Punjabi Settlers,' it is highly unusual for them to attack a leader of another group, such as LeT. It should be also noted that the much older LeT, which has a stronghold in Jammu and Kashmir, is much more well established to the relatively nascent SRA.
While these groups generally do not compete in the same location, they do compete for the same recruits. The SRA's ambitious attack was claimed on the same day and this is a clear indication of the importance this incident holds for the SRA. Undoubtedly, the LeT will have to respond in kind, leading to more violence between the two groups.
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TRAC Incident Report:
German Anarchist Vandalized the Deutsche Bahn (DB) Office Complex using Hammers & Incendiary Devices, on Caroline-Michaelis-Strasse in Berlin-Mitte, Germany
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Mohamad Ali Hussein al-Qadri | |
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On the evening of 27 July 2023, anarchists vandalized the Deutsche Bahn (DB) office complex using hammers and incendiary devices. The office complex is located on Caroline-Michaelis-Strasse in Berlin-Mitte, Germany.
The entrances of two office buildings had their windows destroyed and the slogan “Stop Tren Maya” had been spray-painted on the walls. They also set fire to a DB Flinkster e-car and a DB service vehicle that were parked in an associated parking lot. According to the anarchists' claim, "crow’s feet were hurled down the roadway to impede oncoming law enforcement."
This attack was conducted as a result of the German company Deutsche Bahn's (DB) involvement in the so called 'Tren Maya' project in Mexico. It is not unusual at all for anarchists to attack a remote location, often across the world, in solidarity with another cause. This is especially problematic for international companies who operate globally.
Construction on the 1,525-kilometer (948-mile) Tren Maya, also known as the Mayan Train or the Maya Train, began in June 2020 and only a portion of which is expected to be finished by December 1, 2023. It will run through the Yucatán Peninsula. Two lines that circumnavigate the peninsula are used by the railway as it moves northeast from Palenque in Chiapas to Cancun in Quintana Roo, Mexico. The project seeks to link lesser-known inland locations with popular tourist spots, including the historic Mayan sites from which it gets its name. Environmentalists and advocates for indigenous rights protested the creation of new tracks through the jungle.
Anarchists have long blamed the German company, Deutsche Bahn (DB) for acquiring a substantial amount of its income from providing the logistics to the NATO forces that are responsible for transporting weapons to the Turkish army. This turned DB into a bigger target for anarchist related attacks.
The perpetrators concluded their claim of responsibility for the attack with a call to action to 'all allies' stating, "With this attack on Deutsche Bahn we want to continue the series of actions that have already taken place in recent months at “Tren Maya” and invite all allies to further militant participation in struggles against the destruction of the planet."
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TRAC Incident Report: Palestinian Lone Gunman Opens Fire on Israeli Civilians, Wounding Four, Outside Retail Shopping Mall in the Jewish Settlement of Ma'ale Adumim, West Bank | |
TRAC Incident Report: Houthi (Ansarallah) Militants Armed Assault Targeting Governmental Troops outside of Taiz, Yemen | |
TRAC Incident Report: Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) Detain Two Suspected al-Sufa Militants Planning a Series of Attacks Targeting Hindus and Jewish Nariman Chabad House in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India | | | | |
