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Good Friday morning!
And there it is my friends!!! The pullback we have been warning everyone about and the cessation of one time framing has finally happened! Price took out prior days low and downside targets were nailed!!! As we mentioned yesterday.....
"PLEASE REMEMBER....this market can break lower at any time as we just keep floating higher and higher and higher, and I've been saying the odds are increasing for this to happen, but again, I do not have a crystal ball so you will have to stay vigilant! Don't fight this tape but stay cautious as things can turn on a dime."
Well things turned on a dime and sellers entered the market and stepped up their operations and prices fell sharply. I feel that now we are in a wait and see moment. I say this because "one day does not make a trend" so we need to see confirmation of more downside action and value building lower.
This morning futures are higher and overnight inventory is 100% net long. We are inside of prior days range so let's see if buyers support the market and buy the dip (as usual) and keep prices higher, or do sellers come in again?!?! That is the $64,000 question!
The profile pic and target levels will be key for today. We are well off of yesterdays lows and we have already retraced 50% of Thursday's drop so 5624 will be the first key level. Anything that stays above that level would be more bullish and then look for upper targets. The next important price is 5634 so make a not of it.
If 5624 gets taken out then look for 5613 which is Wednesday's low and where one time framing stopped. Next lower target would be 5596 then lower targets.... if markets are exhibiting bearish price action.
PLEASE NOTE: FED Chair Powell is speaking today @ 10:00 AM from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium! This will most likely cause increased intraday volatility!
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added yesterday however we took out 5602 below on the drop, so 5699.50 is the one above and we now have 21 untested points of control below current prices. 5468 is the closest one below and should not be in play today.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5625 - 5635
Key Levels: 5624 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5575 - 5565
/NQ upside target is: 19,750 - 19,790
Key Level: 19,785 1/2 Back
downside target is : 19,510 - 19,480
/RTY upside target is: 2170 - 2175
downside target is: 2140 - 2130
Economic Data: Light Today But Key Reports
FED Chair Powell Speaks from Jackson Hole @ 10:00 AM EST
New Home Sales @ 10:00 AM EST
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM EST
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
/ES - Demand $5582 then at $5599 with Supply at $5632 then at $5665
1. Buyers trapped below $5582 and holding below after a pullback looking to play SHORT targeting $5545 then 5500
2. Sellers trapped above $5599looking to play long targeting $5622 then new HOD
SPY - Demand at $557 / Supply at $563 -562HOD
1. Buyers trapped below 557 after a break and retest from $556 looking to play short targeting $555
2. Sellers trapped above $557 looking to play long from a break and retest from $558 targeting $560
/NQ Key Demand at then at $18618 then at $18540 with Supply at $19760
1. Sellers trapped above $18540 looking to play long targeting $19650
2. Buyers are trapped below $18540 and holding , looking to play short
targeting $19527 then $19500
QQQ Key Supply flipped to Demand at $473 with Supply at $481
1. Sellers trapped above $474 I want to play long off a break and retest from $475 targeting $478 then new HOD
2. Buyers trapped below $481 after a break and retest below $480 looking to play short targeting $479 then $478
Also watching ...
DJT Key Demand at $22-23 then below at $21 LOD / Supply at $26-25.50
(playing this primarily off of RFK news / joining endorsing TRUMP )
1. Looking to grab Shares above $22 below $24.50 will also be looking to grab (AUG) $23.5 /24 CALLS ITM after a pullback to KEY DEMAND
2. A sell off below $22 I will look to grab Shares Options above $19.50
AMD Key demand flipped to Supply at 155-154 with demand at $147-149
1. Buyers trapped below $155 after a break and retest from $154 looking to play SHORT targeting $152 then $150
2. Sellers trapped above $155 playing a break and retest from $156 playing long targeting $158 then $160
Have a great day and an awesome weekend!
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