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Good Monday morning,
Here we go again! I am not even sure how to explain this, but it has happened before my friends! During the Dot.com bubble of 2001, the real estate bubble of 2007-2009, and now it is happening again, the AI bubble of 2025. Stock valuations don't matter, government shutdowns don't matter, wars around the globe haven't mattered for quite a while, and now it is just buy, buy, buy! Obviously, this will end very badly, but for now, it is the game being played, so be careful and don't try to fight it. The game plan will at least tell us what to look for once the selling starts, and I am not saying it has to be or will be today, but stay frosty.
📊 In the profile pic and key levels, futures are higher on a huge gap over Friday's high, and with a true gap higher and overnight inventory that is 100% net long, we will look for a fade move early to correct the overnight inventory, but that is not guaranteed. The same thing happened Friday (which also had a huge gap up), and the markets stayed up all day long. A look above and fail at the overnight high, or a short below the first one-minute low could be in play, but if neither of these things happens, then the game higher is intact. Only a move below the overnight low at 6,865.75 could change the tempo and momentum.
Futures are currently trading at 6,883 at the time of this writing.
🧭 VPOC Update: You may have guessed that, yes, we put in another new VPOC below on Friday at 6,774.50, so we are now back to 8 below with none above!
Current VPOCs:
- 6,774.50
- 6,562.25
- 6,529.00
- 6,502.50
- 6,450.00
- 6,396.50
- 6,373.25
- 6,310.00
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 6,905 - 6,915
Key Levels: 6,865.75 Overnight low
downside target is: 6,865 - 6,855
/NQ upside target is: 25,975 - 25,995
Key Level: 25,780 VWAP
downside target is: 25,700 - 25,650
/RTY upside target is: 2,570 - 2,580
downside target is: 2,525 - 2,515
Economic Data: Very Light
Durable Goods @ 8:30 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey @ 10:30 AM ET
More Color By: Rich Rickus
1. /ES - Key Demand $6820-6810 then at with Supply above at $6890
Bullish : Sellers trapped above 6810 looking to play a break and retest above $6820 long targeting $6845 then $6890
Bearish Buyers trapped below $6800 looking to play short after a break and retest below $6790 targeting $6768 a break down into $6740
2. SPY Key demand at $673-674 and with Supply above at $683
Bullish Sellers trapped above $674 looking to play a break and retest from $675 long targeting $677 then a breakout into high $678
Bearish Buyers trapped below $673 after a break and retest below $672 targeting $669 then a breakdown into $667
3. /NQ Key demand at $25700 then with Supply above at $25394-25400
Bullish Sellers trapped above $25100 looking to play a break and retest above $25120 long targeting $25250 then a breakout back into low $25300’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $25100 looking to play short from below $25050 targeting $24900 then $24850
4. QQQ Key Demand at $608 - 607 with Supply at $613
Bullish Sellers trapped above $607 looking to play a break and retest from $608 targeting $611 then a breakout into high $613
Bearish Buyers trapped below $607 looking to play a break and retest below $606 targeting $604 then $602
Have a great day!
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