Two Guys Walk Into a Bar and Talk About Energy

Greetings,

I hope you are enjoying the “dog days of August” as you prepare for what for me is New Year’s Day – Labor Day. I always feel more like I am starting anew then Summer than I ever feel on January 1 of the following year.

And speaking of dogs……

Some of you know or know of my dog Bodie. He is an 18-pound Cockapoo whose DNA seems to be entirely from the Cocker side, even to the point of shedding. He is about to turn 16, and the way he is going he may a long life ahead of him. In fact, recently I had to examine him more closely to make sure he wasn’t somehow a cat given how many lives he seems to have already used up.

First there was the event several years ago when he went to the Vet for a teeth cleaning. He flat-lined on the operating table under anesthesia, but thankfully they were able to bring him back. Next there was when he got bloodied by an attack from another dog and it looked like he was gone. But he recovered.

A few weeks ago, came something else.

While being hosted by his usual Boarder while I was out of town, an unknown wild animal got into their fenced back yard and attacked and killed several chickens there. Bodie and the other dogs got into it with the invading animal and Bodie took a bite on his rear leg that the X-Ray revealed had broken his fibula into three pieces, with a small piece floating perpendicularly between the other two

It really looked like he wasn’t going to make it based on all sorts of side effects and symptoms. The Vets and I agonized over whether to try to take the floating bone out, which would mean putting him under again at an even more advanced age than his teeth incident.

We ultimately didn’t have to decide. Within a few days, Bodie began walking on the broken leg. I just got back from a long walk with him, and he was just like the pre-attack days.

So where is the climate and energy hook that prompted me to tell you all of this? Well, I could talk about resilience, or I could talk about perseverance relative to the question of are going to reduce emissions and temper a heat rise in the face of what statistically seem like poor odds.

Or I could just tell you a story with a happy ending as you begin the “New Year”. :)

Best,

Dan

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Links to Past Issues:

Are you Ready to Test Your Climate Vocabulary?

A Different Kind of Message From the Climate Scientists

Climate Fiction and Climate Reality

Thoughts on Climate Descendants

Emissions as a Choice in Flying

The Forgotten Climate Holiday in April (not Earth Day)

Climate Change and the Snail Darter

St. Patrick's Day and Climate Change

Charging My Car in Manhattan

Step Into These Shoes Wearing a Climate and Energy Hat

Resilience Recognition is Rising - But There is That Other Thing

There is no "O" in Climate Change

It was an Instagram COP - And I am Finally OK with That

How to Talk About Climate With Your Crazy Uncle at Thanksgiving

Monty Python and Climate Change

What You Need to Know About NIMBYism

H mm..So How Much Did My Heat Pump Really Cost?

What it Means to Be a Climate Voter

The Climate Conundrum of Air Conditioning

Predictions Made About Utilities Made 10 Years Ago - How Did They Hold up?

My Vote For The Most Under-Appreciated Impact of Climate Change

10 Things I Should Have Written About

So I Went to the COP - Here Are My Top 10 Takeaways.

Efficiency and Clean Energy - Faster vs More

Efficiency & Clean Energy - More vs. Faster

It's Time For A Climate Vote - On the Record

Good COP, Bad COP .....Thoughts Before Glasgow

One of These Things is Not Like the Others

What I Should Have Written About

The Serenity of Being a Climate Voter

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Some Things That Caught My Eye ...

Renewable Portfolio Standards Seem to be Working

One clean energy and climate tool that has played a major role in State efforts in RPS – Renewable Portfolio Standards. Twenty-nine States have adopted them. A new Report from a National Laboratory shows that they are working.

According to the Report, ninety percent of states with renewable portfolio standards are currently hitting their targets or are missing them by a small margin.

Most RPS programs target a 15 to 30 % share of renewable electricity, although the standards range from single-digit percentage points to Vermont’s 60 percent. Four states have committed to reaching 100 percent renewables by a specific date, and many states are weighing strengthening existing standards. Only NYS, Illinois and Delaware are experiencing a “large shortfall,”

https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/us-state-renewables-portfolio-clean-0

Another new Report on RPS’s shows that there is a positive “spillover” effect on neighboring states that don’t have an RPS.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2313193121

The Norway Conundrum

No country on earth has a higher penetration of EVs than Norway. It is also a country with high levels of energy efficiency and a strong commitment to addressing climate change domestically.

But it is also a major oil producer, something that has significantly raised the standard of living in the country and helped create one of the largest Sovereign Funds in the world, that is a major source of philanthropic resources for work around the globe.

The Norwegian Petroleum Industry Regulator last week called on oil companies to boost investments in exploration and production to slow an expected decline in the country's output in the coming years.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/norway-regulator-calls-oil-firms-boost-exploration-investment-2024-08-21/

The China Syndrome – No, Not That One

I often give you talking points you can use when you inevitably run into someone who says, “why should the U.S. do anything on climate when China is still building coal plants”. Here is another one to use to show that despite the heavy dependence on coal there (China is the leader among nations) the battleship may be turning around.

A new Report shows that China reduced the number of permits for coal-fired power plants by roughly 80 percent in the first half of 2024. At the same time, it shows that there is a construction boom happening in the country's renewable energy sector. It shows that new renewable energy installations are now capable of meeting all incremental power demand in China,

China approved just 9 gigawatts of new coal power capacity from January to July of this year compared to 52 GW during the same period in 2023. Proposals for new coal-fired power plants also dropped too, from 60 GW in early 2023 to 37 GW in early 2024

A related Report found that found that China’s wind and solar capacity exceeded total coal capacity for the first time in the first half of 2024.

https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/china-puts-coal-on-back-burner-as-renewables-soar/

Replacing Coal with Solar – In the Very Same Place

The idea of coal-based electricity being overtaken by solar and wind is widely understood and accepted. But often that is a concept that shows up in the overall statistics. Here is a (free) article about a massive effort to use solar (with some storage) in the very community where the coal plant is being shut down. It touches upon many of the issues involved at the local level in the clean energy transition.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/19/business/energy-environment/coal-solar-power-minnesota.html?unlocked_article_code=1.EE4.ZgDI.6fizTZEImfyh&smid=url-share

Optimism on one of the Holy Grails?

Fusion - The ultimate energy option that has just a few years from reality for more that just a few years (think decades) may be getting closer to that according to this article that is a good update on what the technology is and how the development timeline is progressing.

https://heatmap.news/technology/fusion

A Climate Message to Those who do Climate Messaging

I have spent a lot of time thinking about terms or phrases to use in talking in general about climate change. I have strived to try to use both global warming and climate change, and the relationship between them, and I often find myself using climate emergency instead of climate crisis.

A new study indicates that at this point it may not matter what we call it. Not sure I agree with all of this work, but it certainly is important reading for all of us who talk about climate.

https://grist.org/language/climate-change-terminology-crisis-emergency-study/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=daily

Pathways in Order to Get to the Goal Line

One of the best think tanks and research organizations out there on clean energy & climate is Energy Innovation. They just released a great report

https://energyinnovation.org/publication/the-second-half-of-the-decisive-decade-potential-u-s-pathways-on-climate-jobs-and-health/

That’s a Lot of Sheep

I have talked about Agrivoltaics in the past, and about how it is actually happening in many places in the U.S. and abroad. Here is a report on a (very) big deployment.

https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/solar/6-000-sheep-will-soon-be-grazing-on-10-00-acres-of-texas-solar-fields?utm_medium=email

Your Talking Point on Wind vs. Coal

Some good data has come out on how Wind is overtaking Coal. Read about it here.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/15/climate/wind-power-coal.html?utm_medium=email

Crypto Miner Sues State to Keep Fossil Plant Open for Crypto

Greenidge, a publicly traded company, filed a lawsuit against the Department of Environmental Conservation in Yates County on Thursday.

In NYS, the Department of Environmental Conservation used the State’s new climate law to deny an operating permit for a former gas-fired power plant that now exclusively serves a crypto mining operation. The company has subsequently sued. The NYS law the state to cut emissions 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2030 and 85 percent by 2050.

NYS is presently working within a two-year moratorium on new crypto plants that was put in place last year.

https://waterfrontonline.blog/2024/08/16/greenidge-sues-dec-in-yates-county-seeks-injunction-to-block-enforcement-of-order-to-close-dresden-power-plant/

https://waterfrontonline.blog/2024/08/14/greenidge-plant-unlawful-to-operate-after-sept-9-dec-tells-company-prepare-to-close-bitcoin-mining-facility/

How Chevron and Other Actions by the Supremes are Playing Out

Everyone is aware that the Supreme Court had some momentous decisions this past session. While Chevron took up a lot of attention to those of us in the energy & environmental arena, other things happened as well. The following is a good overview of what took place.

https://grist.org/climate-energy/recent-supreme-court-decisions-are-already-slowing-climate-progress/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=daily

A Grid Congestion Problem? Batteries to the Rescue!

Whether it be trying to avoid building a new Transmission Line (non-wires solution) or trying to avoid a new gas-fired peaking plant, there is a new option on the table that is being put into place – Batteries.

At the link below is a feature piece on the deployment of a massive battery development in a section of Maine where the New England Grid is severely congested.

https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/long-duration-energy-storage/form-energy-set-to-build-worlds-biggest-battery-in-maine?utm_medium=email

At Least Someone has Been Able to Ban New Gas Hook-ups

Almost half of U.S. States have passed state-level legislation that essentially bans local governments from instituting bans on new gas hook-ups. In addition, legal actions have slowed down or reversed such efforts in other states.

Here is a story about an organization you probably know of avoiding gas on their own initiative. It makes me think about whether private action is a more viable pathway for this kind of change.

https://energynews.us/2024/08/16/a-st-paul-minnesota-project-will-offer-affordable-housing-without-fossil-fuels/?utm_medium=email

There’s an App for Us

Over a Dozen Apps have been developed to help people track their carbon footprint. The (free) article below talks about them and the growing trend they represent.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-11/want-to-track-your-carbon-footprint-there-are-apps-for-that?srnd=green

Another Development That Was Easy to Foresee

I talk about A/C a lot, mainly because I feel it so relatable in terms of our climate conundrum, i.e. if we create new emissions from producing electricity that is in turn needed to power more and more air conditioners, we are in more trouble than we think.

Globally, the residential AC market grew by almost 10% in 2023. Sales are growing the fastest in the Middle East, and in rapidly-developing parts of Asia like India.

https://www.bsria.com/uk/news/article/world_air_conditioning_market_insights_2023_regional_trends_and_dynamics/

An Example of Why to Not Take Announcements to the Bank – The Tree Version

You have heard me talk (negatively) a number of time about two things: Carbon Offset Projects, and Big Announcements of Emission Reduction Goals where there is hard commitment to achieving those goals.

A new Report focused on the massive effort to plant trees in Northern Africa as a “Green Wall” to hold back desertification while adding new levels of sequestration shows that tree projects have a long way to go.

https://p.dw.com/p/4ixf5

Yet Another Problem with Offset and Credit Programs

Offset projects such as tree planting or forest preservation are supposed to not only reduce emissions but, in many cases, economically help the host communities of those projects. New Reports show that is simply not happening.

https://grist.org/accountability/carbon-credits-offset-finance-poor-countries-carbon-market-watch-report/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=daily

More on Tech Companies Having Their Own Nuke

One of the more interesting developments (to me at least) lately is the combination of tech companies (think AI and Data Centers) need for clean energy with an overall new focus on nuclear energy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/10/why-tech-companies-are-shopping-for-nuclear-power-for-data-centers.html?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202024-08-12%20Utility%20Dive%20Newsletter%20%5Bissue:64795%5D&utm_term=Utility%20Dive

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gotten limaNot Ea Da

Two Guys Walk Into a Bar and Talk About Energy

The first guy says, “What’s your favorite kind of energy?”

The second guy: “Hmmm … I don’t like Coal. It’s too dirty and it seems to be a dangerous thing for the miners”

The first guy: “Yeah, I agree, and when I think about Oil, I also think of things like oil spills”

The second guy: “Gas at first seems like it’s okay, but I don’t like all those pipes running all over the place, including into buildings. And every once in a while, there seems to be an explosion.”.

The first guy: “And then there is Nuclear, but I am still so afraid of it because of those accidents in the past”.

The second guy: “I agree. So, what do you really like when it comes to energy”?

The first guy: “You know … I really like electricity”

When I first heard this joke more almost 30 years ago, it was something that made energy and utility people roll in the aisles with laughter.

It’s not as good a joke now, because everyone knows about things like wind and solar, but if those came up in my hypothetical conversation, it might go like this:

First guy: “I also have a problem with solar. I don’t like seeing ugly solar panels suddenly showing up in what was an open field”.

Second guy: “Agreed, And the same for wind turbines off the coast and elsewhere, not to mention the bird deaths they lead to”.

Stop for a moment and think about it – Is there any more significant development in the history of mankind than electricity. It has changed the world, and it changed each of our lives from what they otherwise would have been.

And yet is there any facet of the energy world less understood and appreciated than the electricity system.

We need to make and transmit a lot of electricity as we move forward… Why? Let me count the ways:

- The U.S. economy, society and lifestyle are dependent on electricity. Same for much of the world, with more moving to join that club by getting electricity for the first time.

- New demands are being put on the electricity system. Artificial Intelligence is one, as I have been talking about via my blurbs. But how about A/C? That demand is only going in one direction, boosted among other reasons by the rest of the world needing it.

- With few exceptions, electricity is the way we harness renewable energy in ways that do not produce greenhouse gasses.

- The transportation sector is going to go electric. What we have now is not a flash in the pan. The switch to EVs may take longer than expected and encounter additional bumps in the road.

- In one study, the conclusion was that the grid needs to double, triple or even quadruple its capacity to deliver electricity by about 2050 to meet growing demand for new data centers, factories and electric vehicles.

It matters tremendously how we go about producing electricity from here on in. If we continue to generate electricity in plants that produce greenhouse gas emissions, we are making the decarbonization that we must achieve that much more difficult. This is especially the case with power plants and vehicles. In the case of a power plant, the new generating facility itself will be a long-lived asset that stays in service for a long period of time. But that length of time will be nothing compared to the length of time that the plant’s emissions remain in the atmosphere.

If we continue to build new power plants that have GHG emissions we might be said to be surrendering to climate change. At some not-too-distant point in time, the same will be able to be said about vehicles.

And the same thing could be said about failing to invest in the enhancement and expansion of the grid.

Yet new fossil-fueled power plants are not only on the table but getting approved in places around the U.S. This is happening regardless of the fact solar and wind prices have been for some time the lowest cost electricity to add to the grid.

So why aren’t most people, as well as policymakers, more focused on this, and making fossil power plants only a (very) last resort?

There are both macro issues and micro issues.

The biggest macro is that energy industry is one of the largest and long-standing areas of “big business” in America. And it is a natural reaction for a business to do a knee-jerk action and battle against anything that would prevent use of their product. That is why the gas industry is in hyper-drive when it comes to lobbying, and showing good results for it, i.e. over 20 states have enacted state bans on cities in their state trying to ban new gas hook-ups.

Another macro issue is something I talked about in an Op Ed earlier this year – the role of utilities and regulators. Each of them is supposed to make decisions that meet multiple objectives, but big among them is keeping the lights on, both in producing it and in transmitting it (i.e. the wires) Being a utility leader is further complicated by the responsibility of producing returns for investors.

A micro issue is that we have become a nation of NIMBYs and BANANAs and it has become harder and harder to site solar and wind. And the local opposition is often fueled by fossil companies trying to stem the tide.

Another micro issue is also a macro one. That would be the challenge of reducing electricity demand, either through efficiency or conservation. Yet efficiency still lags in terms of its potential, e.g. many states still using building codes from decades ago.

Yet another is storage, especially long duration energy storage (meaning 8 hours or more, or even days, weeks or seasons long). I have called it the holy grail before, and I will restate that now. It is going to revolutionize the production and use of electricity, and it is coming fast.

As for the cost of electricity, while people like (and depend on) electricity, they don’t like the price of it.

It seems people think that for some reason the price of electricity – or the size of their electricity bill, which are two different things - should not go up. The reason for this one often hears is that their utility is corrupt, incompetent or just practicing plain old price-gouging.

People don’t seem to think electricity should be subject to inflation, even when everything else is. They don’t seem to think that there needs to be any new investment in the electricity system (even as they demand greater reliability)

The fact is, utilities and other companies in the electricity sector are no different than any other sector. They are not in business to give it away, even if they are a local electric cooperative or small municipal utility that is operating for its local customers. They have to make electricity and keep the lights on.

However, even with the introduction of competitive electricity markets (although in only half the states), the majority of a utility’s business is regulated. Sure, a person can say that government is also incompetent, corrupt, etc. but the point is that there is at least some level of cost and price protection due to it.

We are an electrified world, and it’s going to get more electrified. Everyone knows that, even if it goes against their politics or level of animosity they feel for their utility.

And it needs to get more electrified because that is the major way in which we will solve global warming and climate change.

And we know there are other fossil-free ways to produce electricity in addition to Solar and Wind.

The first is Nuclear, which is in its own lane of sorts. It has no emissions, but it is not renewable. We could afford to avoid nuclear if it wasn’t that the only currency that matters now is GHG emissions. So those against nuclear need to do some recalibration. More and more people are realizing this every day, even to the point of something I never in a million years would have thought I would hear – reopening Three Mile Island.

The next is Hydro, one of the oldest energy producing methods of them all. The amount of hydroelectric power has not increased in the U.S. over the years for various reasons, but most having to do with other demands on the water. But in a world where GHG is the currency, new Hydro power plants need to be in the discussion.

So how do we go forward with regards to electricity?

I am always in favor of consumer education, and it is sorely needed in the case of the present ignorance in electricity. Something tells me that would be hard in this case. But being hard doesn’t mean it isn’t needed.

Even when I think that the education challenge may be achievable with something, I turn towards policy as something that exists to rise above ignorance or misunderstanding. But electricity policy happens in a fragmented world, with some at the Federal level, some at the State level, and when you consider siting and permitting, some is at the local level.

That being as it may, every policy decision on energy anywhere is a climate decision and increasingly every energy decision will be about electricity.

Electricity can’t be taken for granted. The electricity system is not on autopilot for either energy or climate success.

It needs a lot thought and work. Let’s all get on board with that.

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Join Our Email List

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Links to Past Issues:

Are you Ready to Test Your Climate Vocabulary?

A Different Kind of Message From the Climate Scientists

Climate Fiction and Climate Reality

Thoughts on Climate Descendants

Emissions as a Choice in Flying