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Mixed signals:
- There’s been more new inventory, but the overall market does not feel that abundance, as it’s still down 9.8% Year over Year…and Monthly Contract Activity has fallen -20.2% from this time last year.
- While Q3 headlines reported strong deal volume, it’s actually lagging news which reflects activity from the delayed Spring selling season. Even with constrained inventory (when urgency peaks), deals are less frequent and taking longer to consummate; buyers (the "waders") are taking their time...methodical, but in it to buy.
- The luxury market, above $4M, where nearly 90% of all deals are paid for with all cash (and less affected by rate increases) continues to lead the other sectors (see UrbanDigs’ leverage chart).
- The rental market's typical Fall price relief has not materialized. Higher interest rates and moving costs have many staying put, meaning less turnover and less inventory to choose from.
People always ask, “how’s the market?” That fact is it’s all over the place. Why? Innumerable factors in the overall sentiment of this space, but also politically, geopolitically, economically. It feels…I don’t know (?)…and everyone seems to feel the same way.
The fact is, it’s a weird market; it’s entropic. As always, there are mixed signals but this time a bit counter-intuitive. We’re seeing some divergence, where there have been more resale listings, yet contract activity has softened and yet prices have remained constant. The anomaly to that, again, is that the luxury sector is leading the pack. It is neither a boom nor is it a bust.
| | Chart courtesy: UrbanDigs | | |
So what do we make of all it? Well, there’s one constant in Manhattan and that is that virtually everyone wants to buy. That sustains a reliable and core level of demand. The marketplace here is VERY efficient; there is always enough demand for deals to get done…and at good prices too. Perhaps it’s not as much as a seller might like; but if properly exposed to the marketplace, they should feel assured that they have gotten market value. I always say, you have to sell into the market you have been given.
In this, we do recognize there is a difference among the buyer pool: there are “waders” (those intrepid buyers that recognize cycles and buying opportunities with less competition) and then there are the “waiters” (those who need to hear the birds chirping before they engage…when everyone else comes out too). The “waders” are always out there, sleeves rolled up, churning through the market, methodically chipping away at their process and negotiating with sellers. The “wait”ers are the ones who want the skies to clear; they want all bad news to go away before they jump in. There’s lots of those folks. You have to choose your path.
| | Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home/investment property out there for them. Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust. | | Directly across from Central Park's southern tip, in the heart of the most unique and vibrant part of the city is 106 Central Park South. It's at the cross roads of luxury and the finest urban nature you'll find on this planet. In close proximity to world class restaurants, clubs, shopping and recreation of your choosing is this extraordinary opportunity to create the private home you have always imagined when you think about living in Manhattan. Within, we find two adjacent homes, residences 11A & 11B, collectively comprising approximately 3,500 square feet of living space with 50 feet of frontage overlooking Central Park. From sunrise to sunset and from one season to the next your views become an ever-evolving work of art, the light glows into your home. This offering combines residences into a single, remarkable opportunity: own two side-by-side homes on Central Park South or create a sprawling, customized combination residence with 4 bedrooms, 4 full bathrooms and 2 powder rooms....Click here to see the video and more. | | One of the select-few truly exclusive and distinguished boutique cooperatives on all of Park Avenue..."all limestone, with double sets of Florentine-style windows and with only one five-bedroom apartment per floor"...nearly 70 feet of frontage facing Park Avenue...extraordinary volume...10’ ceilings…innumerable, large outward facing windows...four exposures...views and streams of sun and light throughout...private elevator landing and 375 sqft entry gallery, perfect for art...SE facing living room...oversized dining room...south facing library...an unusual and seductive corridor, 7 feet wide and nearly 48 feet long, perfect for art…commodious primary bedroom suite...and what was once described as a home with “six servants’ rooms, including a separate section for the butler and the second man” is now is currently 15 rooms, inclusive of 5 bedrooms, 6 bathrooms and two staff rooms...unparalleled location, in close proximity to world class restaurants, shopping, entertainment, art and culture, including the Metropolitan Museum of Art, The Frick Collection, Lincoln Center…this list goes on...Click here to see the video and more. | | |
With the lowest maintenance you will ever find for a Classic 7 on Fifth Avenue...which includes your cable and gas.
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Perched on Carnegie Hill's northern crest, directly across from Central Park, the building makes a lasting first-impression. Its stately facade combines a three-story limestone base, warm tan brick, limestone trim, and elegant wrought-iron detailing. Inside, residents and guests are welcomed by a wonderfully theatrical octagonal lobby, complete with soaring double-height vaulted ceilings.
Residence 10D is a gracious Classic 7 that beautifully captures the spirit of the building-formal where it counts, wonderfully livable everywhere else, and filled with the architectural details that make prewar homes so special. A semi-private landing leads to an elegant entry foyer and into a commodious 15' x 24' (foot) living room with beamed ceilings, a wood-burning fireplace, and handsome built-in bookcases and cabinetry. It is a room made for cocktails before dinner, long Sunday afternoons, and everything in between.
Click here to see the video and more.
| | * MANHATTAN MARKET NEWS * | | |
The Hamptons market has become more selective, rather than entering a broad downturn. Q3 reports mainly show inventory down nearly 23% year-over-year and closed sales down 9%, and the median sales price down approximately 6% to just below $1.9 million. The common theme remains where well-priced, turnkey properties continue to attract buyers, while overpriced homes and properties requiring substantial renovations lag on the market and experience greater discounts.
Higher interest rates are contributing to more dovish buyer sentiment. While the Q3 number still do not reflect the full potential effect that the latest increase might have, the large numbers of cash buyers and limited inventory provide a bit of a pricing “floor”. Looking toward 2027, my base case is a divided market rather than a broad correction: desirable, appropriately priced homes should remain relatively resilient, while ambitious asking prices and properties needing substantial renovation face more head winds. Sticky high rates would likely restrain activity; while lower rates could ease buyer hesitation. It seems that only if we were to see a meaningful increase in inventory, would we witness a BIT of a shift in buyer leverage. The questions is, will we ever see that?
The Full Hamptons Q2 Report
| | * WHAT REPRESENTATION LOOKS LIKE * | | |
Click on each respective image to watch the video.
| | Above charts courtesy: Mortgage News Daily | | * MOST RECENT MARKET REPORTS * | | It was an honor to have been invited to and participate on a panel at this years SIMED conference in Malaga, Spain. We discussed the global future of luxury...the trends and the must-have experiences demanded by the ever-growing international buyer population. Centrally located on the global map with an average of 300 days of sun annually, there are many extraordinary opportunities in this region of Andalucia, which include Marbella and Estepona. Reach out to me if you would like to learn more; we can discuss your interests, goals and specific needs. Click here to see an impressive presentation on Malaga City's growth. | | Ja'Baree a.k.a. "Case 🪬🧿" | | |
Attribute - Details
Artist Name - Ja'Baree (a.k.a. "Case 🪬🧿") [@artist_jabaree]
Art Form - Multi-modal visual art, mobile installations, and street culture
The "Bus Gallery" - An outdoor and indoor art display hosted inside and around a mobile bus/stall format
Notable Locations - Upper West Side (near Housing Works), Jackson Heights/Astoria in Queens, and traveling spots across NYC
Learn more: The Artist & The Bus
| | Let's Compare Lists: Eater vs. Resy | |
The Hottest Restaurants
Open Right Now
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Eater's Heat Map (click below) - Some of the Hottest Restaurants open right now. This list will be updated monthly.
Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? Here, we’ve put together a map of the latest Manhattan debuts drawing NYC’s dining obsessives.
New to the list in October We’ve added Upper East Side tasting menu Creola, which explores the Black diaspora; West Village French brasserie Cafe Charmant from the Corner Store team; Mexican seafood wine bar El Camarón Peludo in the West Village from the Taqueria Ramirez team; the Kisa team’s all-you-can-eat Good Time Country Buffet in the East Village; and George McNally’s first restaurant, Faux, in Tribeca. And, for now, we swapped out Cote, Cynthia, Muje, Noury, and Dean’s.
For more New York dining recommendations, check out the new hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens.
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Hit List: Where In New York You’ll Want to Eat Right Now
| | Photo courtesy of El Camarón Peludo | | |
New to the Hit List (September 2026):
New to The Hit List on Resy
Cynthia, Burmese Bites, El Camarón Peludo, Ugly Baby, Kirbee’s, and Good Time Country Buffet.
For the full list...keep reading here.
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ARE RESTAURANTS SPYING ON YOU?
Is it a restaurant
. . . or is it the CIA?
The show Cheers got it right: we all like to go where everybody knows our name. But how much more do we want our favorite restaurant to know about us? Read Article.
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Cookbook Author, Culinary Journalist and Food Humorist©, Rob is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
Order: Short Order Dad ...A Great Gift for Dad!
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Rob is also on iHeart Radio & SPOTIFY with his ALL YOU CAN EAT podcast about delicious food, cooking and luxury travel.
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PRIVATE ONLINE COOKING CLASSES:
Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage
its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and
internationally by inviting partners to high-light key properties in their
respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature
our important properties on their sites.
Learn more.
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| | | Disclaimer: The opinions and content in this newsletter are assembled solely by Roberto Cabrera (a licensed real estate broker in New York State) for informational purposes only and and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No financial or legal advice provided. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. All Coming Soon listings in NYC are simultaneously syndicated to the REBNY RLS. Equal Housing Opportunity. Everyone has unique circumstances and should consult the their own respective professionals. |
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