|
The current life cycle for most vehicles is about 5 years. In the luxury market the designs stick around for a bit longer - usually 7/8 years, but the vehicles get a 'mid-life' face lift to freshen the car up at a point where sales might start to decline. Also, electronics and driver aids are changing so fast that the cars need to be continually updated. With the consolidation of vehicle platforms, these changes can be amortized over many hundreds of thousands of vehicles.
It didn't used to be like that. With many more manufacturers producing fewer cars, production runs were longer. The 'big' Austin Healey (1953-1967), Jaguar E Type (1961-1974), Rolls Royce Silver Shadow/Corniche (1965-1990), Mercedes-Benz R107 SL (1972-1989), Jaguar XJS (1975-1996), Porsche 911 (1964-1989) and Lamborghini Countach (1974-1990) are examples. The original VW Beetle was produced from 1938 to 1983!
In these cases the first cars were very much different than the last. Which is better, and which does the collector market value more?
Generally speaking the first cars offer the purest design and are the most elegant. They may not have worked that well and often the early buyers were unknowingly enlisted as development engineers for products that weren't quite ready for market. Changes early in the series life usually came pretty quickly, making the original versions relatively rare - arguably for the wrong reasons. Often, many of the parts that went into making the first batch of cars were hand made, and were later replaced with more production-friendly items. The later cars generally worked the best, having the benefit of a decade's worth of continuous development.
In the 1960's European manufacturers came to grips with North American driving conditions and offered roll up windows, effective cooling systems and fully synchronized gearboxes. Any car whose manufacture ran through the 1970's was forced to go through significant changes to meet new environmental and safety legislation. In the later 1970's Pirelli came out with the low profile P7 Performance tire which changed the handling characteristics and appearance of many high performance cars. Fuel injection replaced carburetors in most cars in the 1970's, and in the 1980's these systems were digitally controlled. Also in the 1980's, aerodynamics became better understood, with a commensurate improvement in high speed stability.
Smaller manufacturers often didn't have any money to come out with a new car, which often led to less than successful styling 'updates' which didn't fool anybody. Sometimes the cars were rare because nobody wanted to buy them...
|  | |
Let's take the Lamborghini Countach as an example. Lamborghini displayed a reconstruction of the first Countach LP500 prototype from 1971 at Retromobile earlier this year. The original Gandini design made its way relatively unscathed to the LP400 production vehicle. Visually, this is a far cry from the last Pagani-updated 25th Anniversary Countach that had straked air inlets, flares and scoops on virtually every panel.
The first production Countachs were LP400s with a 4.0L 375hp V12 running on 14" alloys with Michelin XWX tires. They got the name 'Periscopa' because of the mirror arrangement in the roof. 158 were made from 1974 to 1978.
The next 234 cars, named the LP400S and produced from 1978 to 1982, featured the new Pirelli P7 tires and fender flares to accommodate them. Power was down slightly to 353hp. Handling improved considerably with the wider track and low profile tires.
In 1982 the engine displacement grew to 4.75L and the car became the LP500S. 321 copies of the 375hp 5000S model were made. With more torque and lower gearing, it was much easier to drive in traffic.
The LP5000 Quattovalvole featured new 4 valve cylinder heads, another displacement increase (5.2L) and with it a considerable increase in power (455hp). Pirelli came out with an evolution of the P7 tire (P7S). Later engines transitioned from carburetors to fuel injection. They made 610 of those from 1985 to 1988.
The Countach 25 Anniversary was mechanically similar to the last LP5000 QV, but was restyled by Horacio Pagani, who of course went on to design his own supercar. He didn't hold back. 658 were made until 1990.
I see these different versions appealing to different people. Clearly the later cars will offer greater performance and better drivability. The early cars will go to collectors who may also have a Muira or 350/400GT. Guys who want to drive the cars will gravitate to the later cars. The early cars were produced in much fewer numbers, and should always be valued higher than the 5 Litre cars. The last-of-the-line 25th Anniversary car will probably always be worth more than the QV. The least valuable is likely to always be the LP500S as it had less power than the later Countachs.
I think the LP400 cars should be worth 200-300% of the 25th Anniversary cars due to their rarity and design purity. This means if the next few 25th cars come to market and achieve $750k or so, establishing a benchmark for that model, then a Periscope Countach should get as much as $2M.
I can see no reason why an LP400 wouldn't be worth at least as much as a Porsche Carrera GT or Ferrari F40. Given that LP400's have been trading at around $1M, I would consider this model to be a 'Buy' at the moment.
I would consider paying $750k for a 25th Anniversary to be a little bit scary right now, as a lot of these sold for $125k not long ago and there could be a big enough portion of the 658 cars that come to market in the near future. I might wait on that one.
Are the recent auction results outliers or a new benchmark? Will this spike the values of Periscope LP400s? These questions and more will be answered in future columns!
|  | Now, here are some interesting on-line offerings from Bring-A-Trailer. | |
1989 Lamborghini Countach 25th Anniversary in CA
Premium Auction ends Wed, June 15th @ 11:00am
Well let's see what happens. We have one 'knock it out of the park' Countach 25th result last week @ $738k with 11,500km. This silver car has 1,500 miles. It has a reserve and is already bid to $600k.
With these kinds of numbers, a good portion of the other 658 25th Anniversary cars will come to market and may or may not be absorbed at the current price. It will be interesting to see where equilibrium is reached.
One cautionary note: For reserve auctions you can take many early bids with a grain of salt - 'chandelier bidding' is just as pervasive on on-line auctions as in live ones. In fact, with the BAT's buyer's fee limited to $5,000, all kinds of games are possible...
|  | |
1989 Mercedes-Benz 560SL in Victoria, BC
Auction ending Sunday, June 5th, 1:00pm
Mercedes-Benz made about 200,000 R107 Roadsters between 1972 and 1989. Typically the first and the last are worth the most. This looks like a nice example. The Cryo-Blasting gives a really clear indication of the condition of the engine bay and undercarriage, which in this case is what you would expect from a 30,000km fair weather driven car.
As I write this the car is bid to $45,000, and I would be ok with a little bit more. We will have to see what the final minutes look like. Budget $5k+ to bring the servicing up to date, as all 30 year old cars will need this.
| Auction Results From Last Week.... | |
1948 MG TC in Courtenay, BC
Sold for $23,500 on June 2, 2022
Well this was cheap, even for a TC with some non-original parts. The MG peanut gallery is particularly unforgiving. I think it would have brought at least $20,000 if it were in the the NW US. Puttering around in one of these is pure sports car nostalgia - just don't get hit by anything. I should have bid on it!
| |
1975 Lamborghini Countach in San Diego, CA
Bid to $898,000 on June 3, 2022
The right buyer wasn't there this week. I think, and the seller I'm sure agrees, that this is a $1M + car. Maybe serious collectors were put off by the fact that it was cut up in period.
Surprisingly, a 25th Anniversary Countach, that spent part of its life in Calgary, sold for $738k, which may even be a record price for that model. The 25th Anniversary was the last of the production run, produced from 1988 to 1990. Normally you would expect one of the 158 Periscope cars to sell for 200%+ of the one of 658 25th anniversary cars.
|  | |
Not that long ago these 25th Anniversary Countachs were $125,000 cars. Then they jumped to $350,000k about 5 years ago. Now that looks pretty cheap. I was offered a LP400S in about 2013 for $CDN 80,000. In hindsight, given the models monumental impact on the teenage male brain, and total production of less than 2,000 units, all Countachs look like good buys right now.
An interesting car on BAT will generate about 10,000 views. Each of these Countach auctions generated over 60,000 - proving that these teenagers grew up, and still love Countachs.
| |
|
2007 Aston Martin V8 Vantage Roadster Sportshift
Bought at Desert European in Scottsdale, AZ and imported to Canada when new (this was before there was an Aston dealer in Calgary). 93,000km Aston Dealer 4-year service ($2,800) just completed. One owner. Can't be reasonably faulted for year and mileage.
Price Reduction to $55,000
| |
2003 Mercedes-Benz SL55 AMG (R230)
Brilliant Silver (744) on Charcoal, 59,000 miles, Retractable hardtop, 5.4L Supercharged V8 with 493hp, 516 lb/ft Torque, no warning lights, clean bodywork.
Service 'B' Service at Lone Star.
Price Reduction to $30,000
| |
1961 Jaguar Mk II 3.8L 4 Speed
Ultimate Mk II specification. One family owned. Bought in Switzerland and imported to Canada in 1977. Sympathetically refurbished over the years. Always driven annually and kept in excellent working order.
Scheduled on Bring-A-Trailer for Auction, Late June, 2022
| |
1961 Land Rover S2A 88" Soft Top
Greensand on Black, Khaki canvas 'tilt', restoration to 'concours' standards. Substantial amount of NOS parts, with every mechanical component completely rebuilt by XJ Automotive Service.
$CDN 100,000
Final Assembly in Progress at www.lugnutz.ca
| |
AUTOMOTIVE SERVICES OFFERED
- On-Line Auction preparation and management
- Post-Sale logistics and sorting
- Restoration Project Management
- Dent Removal Wheel Repair Wraps and Tint Paint Touch Up Detail
Email Lawrence
Lromanosky@me.com
| |
