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Good Thursday morning,
Day after FED Day!
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left interest rates unchanged yesterday afternoon and markets took a wild ride up then right back down. I've left the "volatility ahead" warning sign alone because this market is still in a state of confusion at the present time. Traders and investors are trying to figure out do we deploy more capital or continue to lighten up positions in a very overbought market. I am in the latter camp!
Futures are up across the board and overnight inventory is 100% net long after a wild ride during FED Chair Powell's press conference. Today will be about taking out the levels listed in the profile pic below. Any price action that can get above Value Area High, Overnight High and 1/2 Back, around the 5085 area, then there should be a push up towards the upper targets as shorts will get squeezed.
Anything between 5085 and 5050 will be "balancing" or "responsive" trade action. Price exploration below 5050 should lead to lower targets. There is some economic data to watch today but nothing as important as yesterday. Also, APPLE reports after the close today which will show us investor sentiment moving forward.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's yesterday. We have 3 above and 17 below and 5038 continues to be in play.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5095 - 5100
Key Level: 5085 Overnight high & 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5015 - 5005
/NQ upside target is: 17,630 - 17,650
Key Level: 17,600 ON High & 1/2 Back
downside target is : 17,325 - 17,300
/RTY upside target is: 2015- 2025
downside target is: 1965 - 1960
Economic Data:
International Trade @ 8:30 AM EST
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM EST
Productivity & Costs @ 8:30 AM EST
Factory Orders @ 10:00 AM EST
Natural Gas Inventories @ 10:30 AM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key demand at $5038-5005.50 with Supply adobe at $5155-5141
1. Buyers fail to breakout above $5120 and hold as support i will play short
from yesterday Sell targeting $5100
2. Sell off with buyers trapped $5040 looking to play long target $5090
SPY - Key Demand at $495-496 with Supply at $506-508 then previous
$510-511
1. Buyers trapped below $506 looking to play short targeting $504 then $503
2. Sellers trapped after a sell off above $496 playing a break and retest long
targeting $5498
SPX - Key Demand at $4970- 4980 with Supply above at $5082- 5090
1. I would only want to play long if price can break and hold above 5090 or if there is an early sell off at the open and bounces from $4950 holding
$4970
/NQ Key Demand at $17300-17285 with Supply above at $17752 -17792
1. Buyers trapped below Supply off a break and retest with no follow through above $17700 I would like to play short targeting $17650 then $17625
QQQ Key Demand at $421-422 with Supply above at $430-29
1. Buyers fail to break out above $428 I will look to play short off a break and retest targeting $426 then $424
2. A break out and hold above $428 I will look long or if there is a sell off and bounce above $421 targeting $423 then $425.40
As ALWAYS, have your stops in place!!!
Have a great day!
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