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Good Monday morning!
The markets continue to trade in a range bound manner and we are in a large balance area in the S&P Cash currently between 5770 and 5675. There have been many false starts and stops in both directions where it looked like one side was going to gain an advantage over the other, however the two sided trade continues so that is the call of the day...stay fluid!!
Friday was another perfect example of this....futures broke out of balance to the upside, hit our targets, but then reversed sharply lower. As the markets broke to new lows, it looked like the sellers were going to win the day, however, buyers stepped back in and took price back to new highs of the day!!! As I've mentioned before, it can be quite frustrating if you are only looking for one direction, long or short, but the trader who can stay nimble and trade both sides, the opportunities are there to be taken!!!
As always, keep an eye on the key levels and profile pic below. As far as I can see now, there is no true edge for either party although overnight inventory is net short almost 90% to 10% net long. We do not have a true gap so the key lines in the sand I will be watching will be 5777 which is Friday's 1/2 back and 5772 which is the Point of Control. If buyers can keep price above those levels, currently sitting at 5779 at the time of this writing, then the overnight shorts could be squeezed. If price can get below both of those levels then look for lower targets as the overnight traders (sellers) would be correct!
VPOC Update: Finally! A new VPOC was added below @ 5744.25 so we are now back to 24 untested Points of Control below with none above.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5810 - 5820
Key Levels: 5777 then 5772 (1/2 back & POC)
downside target is: 5765 - 5760
/NQ upside target is: 20,350 - 20,390
Key Level: 20,100 POC
downside target is : 20,115 - 20,085
/RTY upside target is: 2240 - 2245
downside target is: 2215 - 2210
Economic Data:
3-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
6 Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
Neel Kashkari Speaks @ 1:50 PM ET
Consumer Credit @ 3:00 PM ET
Raphael Bostic Speaks @ 6:00 PM ET
Alberto Musalem Speak @ 6:30 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Demand $5724 -35 with Supply above at $5785-70
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5730 after a pullback below $5720 looking to play SHORT targeting $5700 then $5688
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5730 after a break and retest above $5738-45 playing LONG targeting $5770 then $5800
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SPY - Demand at $570-571 w / Supply at $575 574
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $570 after a break and retest above $571 looking to play LONG targeting $572 then $574
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $570 after a retest from $569 where Demand would flip back to Supply targeting $568 then $567
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/NQ - Key Demand at $20100 then at $20015 with Supply above at $20280-20335
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $20100 looking to play long targeting $20155 then $20200
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $19990 and holding , looking to play short from $19950 targeting $19870
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QQQ - Key Demand at $483-484 with Supply above at $490-489
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $483 looking to play long from a break and retest at $484 targeting $485 then $486.
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $482 after a break and retest below $481 looking to play short targeting $480 then $479
Have a great day!
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