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Good Friday morning!!
Ever since the key levels of 21,880 in the NDX and 6030 in the S&P were lost two days ago, it has been a slaughter of the longs by the bears, and in my humble (but accurate) opinion, deservedly so!
This recent bull market that kept going up and up and up was WAY OVER EXTENDED and this is what happens when people get too complacent! The market will implode and traders and investors that have been living in LA LA LAND will get blindsided and wonder "hey, what just happened" as they are getting smoked! I hope that is not the case with the people reading MC everyday!
We have been warning about this for some time and as mentioned yesterday, if you were only paying mild attention to the key levels we give you each day, you were prepared for something like this.
Today is Triple Witching and this causes increased volatility, so most people should just sit this one out! Triple Witching occurs four times a year: on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index options, and stock index futures generates large trading volumes and sharp price movements as traders close or renew positions. To add to the fun, the monthly options and index futures contracts expire on this day as well. All that being said is the reason I say "most" traders should just sit on hands today. Sometimes the risk just isn't worth it!
In the key levels and profile pic below, you can see a large gap below yesterdays low although we have a had a nice bounce off of the overnight lows as the latest PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data was just released, and there were a few silver linings in the numbers, so some traders jumped back in long. Today will be about can price get back inside prior days range above 5931.75?! If not then the edge fully remains with the bears! Futures are trading @ 5898 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: Yes you guessed it...another new VPOC was added above @ 6136 so three new VPOC's were added in as many days! This is an additional sign that price is rolling over as we take out VPOC's below and start stacking them up above!!! We now have 3 above and 26 below current price.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5990 - 6000
Key Levels: 5931.75 Prior Low
downside target is: 5855 - 5845
/NQ upside target is: 21,700 - 21,730
Key Level: 21,353 Prior Low
downside target is : 21,200 - 21,160
/RTY upside target is: 2290 - 2295
downside target is: 2210 - 2200
Economic Data: **VOLATILITY!
**Triple Witching
**Personal Income and Outlays @ 8:30 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 AM ET
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - KEY DEMAND $5900-06 LOD with Supply at with Supply at $6040 (previous Demand)
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $6040 after a pullback below $6030-35 looking to play SHORT targeting $5980 then $5920
Bullish
Sellers trapped above 6040 after a break and retest above $6050 playing LONG targeting $6100 then $6120
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SPY - Demand at $583-584 with Supply at $596-597 then below at $593
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $592 after a break and retest above $593 looking to play LONG targeting high $594 then breakout into $596
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $592 after a retest from $591 targeting $588 then breakdown into $587
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/NQ - Key Demand at $21300-11 LOD with Supply at $21800-907
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $21900 looking to play long after a pullback holds above $21900 targeting $22000 then $22200
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $21800 looking to play SHORT after a pullback holds below $21750 targeting $21600 then $21500
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QQQ - Key Demand at $516-514 with Supply above at $520-522
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $522 looking to play long from a break and retest at $523 targeting high $524s then a breakout into $525 and $526
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $522 after a break and retest below $521 looking to play short targeting $519 then mid high $516s
Also watching
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AMD Key Demand flipped to Supply at $123.55-123 with key Demand below at $119
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $123 after a break and retest from $124 looking to play long targeting $126 then $127
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $123 after a break and retest from $122 looking to play SHORT TARGETING $120 then $119 new LOD
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AMZN Supply flipped back to Demand at $225 with Supply above at $233 HOD
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $225 after a break and retest from $226 looking to play SHORT TARGETING $224 then break $223
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $225 after a break and retest from $226 looking to play long targeting $229 then breakout into $230s
Have a great day and a fantastic weekend!
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