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Good Friday morning!
Yesterday was a classic example of all traders heading in the same direction, straight up. Shorts were squeezed and buyers stepped up their game, and I had honestly thought that type of price action was going to happen Wednesday with the large gap higher. That turned out not to be the case, however, we were fully prepared for higher prices yesterday, and the key levels worked like a charm.
Now I will be the first to admit I was unsure of which way the market would go yesterday before the open, and I was completely upfront about it! As mentioned in MC, my reasoning was clear in bold below......
"Today will be tricky because of the way the market closed yesterday and the overnight action, which is very mixed. However, the game plan is very clear. In the key levels and profile pic below, price explored into the gap between yesterday's low of 5383.75 and Tuesday's high of 5339.25. The overnight low is 5355.25 in the ES. The overnight lows in both the ES and NQ will be of utmost importance today! If these levels are lost, then I will be looking for the gap fill to Tuesday's high and then to lower targets. PLEASE pay attention to these key levels."
"Also of importance is yesterday's low of 5383.75. If buyers can keep price above that level, then the bulls may have a chance for higher, first to the POC (Point of Control) at 5410, then to 1/2 back at 5441. Now if 5441-5445 gets taken out to the upside, then it should push prices higher to upper targets! "
The prior day low held, as yesterday's low was 5398.50. Then the POC was taken out at 5410, then 1/2 back over 5441-5445, and then upper targets were hit at 5480-5500! Look, I am not saying I knew this would happen with 100% certainty, but I knew to bias my trades to the long side if these levels were taken out!
Today we have many data points to consider so we all need to pay close attention! Futures are lower with overnight inventory mixed, however, we are above some very key levels from yesterday. 1/2 back and VAL (Value Area Low) at 5468 is the most important level for me today. As long as price stays above 5468 then the edge remains with the buyers. We are currently trading at the POC (Point of Control) at 5498, so we may balance a while before the next leg, either higher or lower.
Above 5468 is key as I just mentioned, but if price can get above 5498 and stay there, then that is even more bullish! VAL (Value Area High) at 5516 would be the next target, then overnight 1/2 back at 5522, then upper targets at 5560-5570.
Now, if sellers step up their game and get aggressive to the downside, losing 5498, then 5488 (overnight low) will put 5468 squarely in sight! IF 5468 is lost, then look for lower targets of 5460-5450 and possibly 5430-5410 if selling tempo and momentum increase. Get ready for anything as we enter the last trading day of the week!
Futures are trading at 5498 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added or taken out yesterday. The closest one above is at 5690 and the closest one below is at 5315. Unless something crazy happens today, these levels should not be in play. We still have 7 above and 15 below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5560 - 5570
Key Level: 5468 1/2 Back & VAL then 5498 POC
downside target is: 5460 - 5450 then 5430 - 5410
/NQ upside target is: 19,500 - 19,550
Key Level: 19,220 Overnight low then 19,150
downside target is : 18,975 - 18,925
/RTY upside target is: 1980 - 1990
downside target is: 1950 - 1940
Economic Data: Light Today
Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 AM ET
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
- /ES - Key Demand $5480-88 with Supply at $5550-40
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5480 looking to play a break and retest above $5490 long targeting $5520 then $5558
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5470 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5460 targeting $5410 then a break down into $5380
- SPY Key demand at then at $542-543 with Supply above at $549
Bullish Sellers trapped above $542 looking to play a break and retest from $543 long targeting $545 then a breakout mid high $547s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $542 after a break and retest below $541targeting $538s then a breakdown into $537s
- /NQ Key demand at $19100 with Supply above at $19500
Bullish Sellers trapped above $19100 looking to play a break and retest above $19150 long targeting $19300s then a breakout back into low $19400’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $19000 looking to play short from below $18800 then $18655
- QQQ Key Demand at $460-462 with Supply at $470
Bullish Sellers trapped above $462 looking to play a break and retest from $463 targeting $465 then a breakout into low mid $467
Bearish Buyers trapped below $460 looking to play a break and retest short from $459t targeting $457 then $456s
Have a great day and a fantastic weekend!!
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