Key Details:
- Industry leaders have weighed in on the 2023 housing market with their predictions
- This roundup includes highlights of the BAM articles on each housing market forecast
- While mortgage rates are still high, experts agree today’s housing market is radically different from 2008, and the recession in 2023 is likely to be brief.
So, this isn’t the real estate industry’s version of a Magic 8 Ball—let alone a crystal-clear glimpse into the near future—but it’s the closest we’re likely to get.
You could ask any of the experts in this roundup, “Will we have a recession in 2023?” the general consensus would be, “Signs point to yes.”
The fuzziness is in the details.
- Will housing prices continue to rise?
- Will mortgage rates go down?
- Will the Fed raise the federal funds rate again?
BAM’s recent articles on forecasts from Fannie Mae, Redfin, Zillow, NAR, and Realtor.com® go into more detail on their predictions for 2023.
Consider this your highlight reel.
REDFIN’S 2023 HOUSING MARKET FORECAST
Redfin made 12 confident predictions for the 2023 housing market. Here are the highlights:
- Home sales will drop to their lowest level since 2011
- Mortgage rates will decline, ending the year below 6%
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Home prices will decline for the first time in 10 years—but, despite the brief dip for some into negative equity, the U.S. will avoid a wave of foreclosures
- Rents will fall, and many will continue renting indefinitely
- Builders will focus more on multifamily rentals
ZILLOW’S 2023 HOUSING MARKET PREDICTIONS
Zillow made predictions on the following five trends for 2023:
- The Midwest will take center stage, thanks to affordability and inventory
- Buying a home with friends or (non-spouse) relatives will gain momentum
- The affordability crisis will stabilize
- 2023 will see a surge in first-time landlords
- New construction will focus more on rentals
Americans finding ways to make payments on a roof over their heads is going to drive the market next year. Where costs are lower, we’ll see healthier sales and inventory levels. If rent is less expensive than a new mortgage, we’ll see increased demand for rentals — something builders and landlords understand. Affordability is going to be the biggest factor in housing for 2023, but there’s room for optimism on that front if mortgage rates recede.
Skylar Olsen
Zillow Chief Economist
REALTOR.COM®’S 2023 HOUSING FORECAST
According to Realtor.com®, housing prices are not coming down in 2023, and rents will continue rising—both predictions that run counter to those made by Redfin. Here are the highlights...
Dec 29, 2022
