Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners
 
 

Quotes of the Day:


"Strength does not come from physical capacity. It comes from an indomitable will." 
– Mahatma Gandhi

“The more you know, the less you want to know. For whoever has not suffered, because of knowledge will not have known anything." 
– Emil Cioran

“Madness: to depart from reason 'with confidence that one is following it.'”
– Michel Foucault, Madness & Civilization



1. Rubio affirms confidence in S. Korea's acting President Choi, strength of alliance: State Dept.

2. South Korea’s likely next leader wants warmer ties with China, North Korea

3. N. Korea vows stronger defense against 'provocative attempts' by S. Korea, U.S.

4. 10 Submariners Executed In South Korean Waters: Recalling The Chilling Story Of N.Korea’s Failed Espionage (execution by north Koreans not South)

5. North Korea has sent 200 long-range artillery guns to Russia, Seoul says

6. ‘North Koreans Are Learning. Are You Ready?’ – Zelensky’s Plea in Munich

7. S. Korea, U.S. vow close coordination over N.K. policy

8. Rallies for, against Yoon's ouster held on historic street of 1980 pro-democracy uprising in Gwangju

9. Chinese Embassy in Seoul expresses 'regret' over suspected Yoon supporter's trespassing attempt

10. North Korean IT Workers Penetrate Global Firms to Install System Backdoors

11. North Korea Leaving Maneuvering Room with the US While Preparing for Long-Term Confrontation

12. New Korea Rotational Force announced (Korea)

13. Top diplomats of S. Korea, U.S., Japan reaffirm 'resolute' commitment to 'complete denuclearization' of N. Korea

14. S. Korea, Japan hold joint lighting event for 60th anniv. of diplomatic ties

15. State Department: “President Trump seeks complete denuclearization of North Korea”… North Korea and Russia dismiss criticism of the US

16. Trump can’t denuclearize North Korea. South Korea’s next leader should pursue risk reduction instead





1. Rubio affirms confidence in S. Korea's acting President Choi, strength of alliance: State Dept.



​Thank you Mr. Secretary. We are getting some pretty consistent words from the Administration on the alliance, denuclearization, and trilateral relationship.



(4th LD) Rubio affirms confidence in S. Korea's acting President Choi, strength of alliance: State Dept. | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · February 16, 2025

(ATTN: RECASTS 5th para; ADDS more info in 6th para)

By Kim Seung-yeon and Song Sang-ho

MUNICH/SEOUL/WASHINGTON, Feb. 15 (Yonhap) -- U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Saturday affirmed his confidence in South Korea's acting President Choi Sang-mok and the strength of the bilateral alliance, and reiterated America's commitment to the "complete denuclearization" of North Korea, the State Department said.

Rubio made the remarks during bilateral talks with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul on the margins of the Munich Security Conference in Germany. It marked their first in-person meeting since the secretary took office last month.

"Secretary Rubio reaffirmed America's commitment to the complete denuclearization of the DPRK while expressing the Trump administration's openness to dialogue," State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said in a readout. DPRK is short for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"Secretary Rubio reiterated his confidence in ROK Acting President Choi Sang-mok and the strength of the U.S.-ROK Alliance," she added, referring to South Korea by its official name, the Republic of Korea.

It marked the first time that a top Trump administration official has expressed his or her confidence in South Korea's acting president. U.S. President Donald Trump has made no public mention of Choi since his inauguration last month, while the two leaders have not had a phone call yet.

Choi took on the leadership mantle after acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo was impeached on Dec. 27, less than two weeks after President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached over his short-lived Dec. 3 martial law declaration -- an event that has thrust South Korea into a period of political uncertainty.


Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul (R) poses with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (L) ahead of their talks in Munich on Feb. 15, 2025, in this photo provided by Seoul's foreign ministry. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

During the talks in Munich, Rubio also expressed his commitment to "enduring defense and economic ties that reflect the importance of our relationship and its continuity," the spokesperson said, as they discussed how to deter North Korea's potential aggression and the allies' economic cooperation.

Rubio welcomed efforts to further collaborate in the shipbuilding, semiconductor and energy sectors, especially through "increased exportation of American liquefied natural gas," according to Bruce.

"They discussed the need to continue to advance economic cooperation in line with President Trump's agenda, including through closer alignment on critical and emerging technologies and joint business initiatives," Bruce said.

The two diplomats, moreover, shared concerns over China's aggression in the South China Sea, she noted.

Earlier in the day, Seoul's foreign ministry said that during the 40-minute talks, Cho and Rubio agreed to work closely together on North Korea policy under the Trump administration.

"The two ministers reaffirmed their commitment to the complete denuclearization of North Korea, and agreed to closely cooperate in the formulation and implementation of North Korea policies in the future," the ministry said in a release.

"They also shared concerns over military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, and agreed to continue the monitoring of the situation," it said.

The talks came as South Korea is seeking to ensure a smooth path in its ties with the new Trump administration on issues including the bilateral alliance, North Korean threats and Trump's tariff plans.

Regarding tariff issues, Cho called for "mutually beneficial solutions" and expressed "South Korea's commitment to resolving them through close bilateral consultations" with the U.S. side, the ministry said.

Rubio, in response, said that he will relay Seoul's position to Washington, suggesting that the matter be discussed further between the two governments.


Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul (R) holds talks U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (2nd from L) on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in Germany on Feb. 15, 2025, in this photo provided by Seoul's foreign ministry. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

Trump's plans to impose tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports and his weighing of new tariffs on cars and chips, have raised the need for swift coordination with Washington amid concerns that South Korea could be the next target of Trump's tariff policies.

At Saturday's talks, Rubio reportedly asked for Seoul's active cooperation in the shipbuilding, energy and other sectors, and Cho expressed South Korea's willingness to do so.

"The minister also highlighted the achievements of South Korea's investments in the U.S. and requested U.S. support to ensure a favorable environment," the ministry said.

Their meeting also came at a time when Seoul is working to continue its diplomatic engagement in the wake of the shocking martial law attempt by Yoon in early December.

To this end, Rubio told Cho that the U.S. values its relationship with South Korea, and seeks to maintain stable and trustworthy relations regardless of domestic political situations in each other's countries, the ministry said.

The issue of the North's denuclearization has drawn attention after Trump and his officials referred to Pyongyang as a "nuclear power," sparking a debate in Seoul over the possibility of the U.S. recognizing the reclusive regime's possession of nuclear weapons.

Trump later reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to the "complete denuclearization of North Korea" at the recent summit with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Following their talks, Cho will join Rubio and their Japanese counterpart, Takeshi Iwaya, at the same venue for a trilateral meeting. The three sides were expected to highlight the importance of maintaining and advancing the three-way cooperation.

Cho's three-day visit to Munich also marks his first overseas trip since the martial law debacle.

elly@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · February 16, 2025


2. South Korea’s likely next leader wants warmer ties with China, North Korea


​No one should be duped by this politician's blatant attempts to take power. He will not be a friend to the ROK/US alliance.


Ms. Lee should have reported on the full range of the crimes he has been accused and convicted of (pending appeal) and not only the election law violation.


Also, his positive statements about the alliance and trilateral cooperation are not in line with the first draft of the impeachment motion he led against president Yoon which called President Yoon's emphasis on the ROK/US alliance and trilateral cooperation with Japan as traitorous as it undermine good relationship with China and north Korea. This had to be removed in the subsequent motions because of the backlash and he had to make a statement in support of the alliance because any shrewd politician in Korea knows you can't be elected unless you say you support the alliance. Now he is saying something completely different to a US journalist and the entire context is not provided.


Please consider this when you read his remarks in the interview below:


Lee Jae-myung has been accused of or indicted for several crimes:
  1. Violating election law by making false claims during the 2022 presidential campaign
  2. Bribery charges related to an alleged scheme involving illegal transfer of funds to North Korea
  3. Violating the Foreign Exchange Transactions Act
  4. Violating the Inter-Korean Exchange and Cooperation Act
  5. Third-party bribery
  6. Perjury (acquitted)
Regarding the alleged illegal transfer of funds to North Korea, this action would likely violate U.S. laws. The U.S. maintains strict sanctions against North Korea, prohibiting most financial transactions with the country. Specifically, Lee is accused of orchestrating the transfer of $8 million to North Korea between 2019 and 2020. This action would likely violate U.S. sanctions laws, including the North Korea Sanctions and Policy Enhancement Act and various Executive Orders that prohibit unauthorized financial transactions with North Korea.


​Reagrding the possible violations of sanctions, I hope reporters will ask the question that if he is elected President how does he think the US will respond if he is convicted of crimes regarding north Korea that violate US sanctions?



South Korea’s likely next leader wants warmer ties with China, North Korea

Lee Jae-myung says he would support President Donald Trump’s efforts to restart talks with North Korea — and even consider nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/02/14/south-korea-lee-jae-myung-interview/

Yesterday at 1:00 a.m. EST

 

 

8 min

27


By Michelle Ye Hee Lee

 

SEOUL — South Korea’s likely next leader would support President Donald Trump’s efforts to restart dialogue with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un — and would even consider nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize if there was a significant breakthrough, signaling a sharp change from Seoul’s current hard-line approach toward Pyongyang.

 

Lee Jae-myung would also temper South Korea’s hawkish approach toward China — potentially putting him at odds with the Trump administration — if he becomes the country’s president and returns a progressive government to Seoul.


“It’s an issue of managing a balance,” Lee said in an interview with The Washington Post on Thursday. “The problem is that South Korea is on the front lines” of a challenging geopolitical landscape in the Asia-Pacific region.

 

That means South Korea can’t afford to alienate China, he said. However, he stressed that it remained important for Seoul to strengthen its security alliance with the United States and cooperate with both Washington and Tokyo.

 

“The United States does not consistently pursue a solely antagonistic or solely cooperative stance toward China,” he said, adding that Seoul must also adapt its approach to Beijing, its largest trading partner.

 

Lee, 61, is the leader of the main opposition Democratic Party and the heavy favorite to become South Korea’s next president if the Constitutional Court removes Yoon Suk Yeol from office over his move to impose martial law at the end of last year. The court is reviewing the National Assembly’s decision to impeach Yoon and could rule within a few weeks. If Yoon is removed, a new presidential election will have to be held within 60 days.

 

While Lee has declined to outright say that he is seeking the presidency — which he lost to Yoon by a the narrowest of margins in 2022 — he has recently moderated his policy positions and is clearly positioning himself to deal with an unpredictable Trump, saying he will find ways to work with the American president, no matter what.

 

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Lee enters Sarangjae, a traditional Korean house that serves as an event space inside the National Assembly compound, for an interview. (Jun Michael Park for The Washington Post)

 

Lee said he welcomed Trump’s desire to restart dialogue with North Korea, after Trump’s first-term meetings with Kim led nowhere but were remarkable in that they happened at all.

 


Following World news

Following

 

If Trump could bring about a significant breakthrough in the eight-decade-long hostilities on the Korean Peninsula, Lee said his Democratic Party might be moved to nominate the American president for one of the world’s highest awards.

 

“I hope there will be a situation within this year under which we as a party officially nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize,” he said. “If there is significant progress on the nuclear and missile issues on the Korean Peninsula, it would be beneficial for everyone.”

 

That could be music to Trump’s ears: When Japan’s prime minister at the time, Shinzo Abe, nominated him for the same award in 2019, he called it “most beautiful.”

 

But Lee is also conscious that Trump could hit South Korea with tariffs — again — although he said Trump couldn’t wage a trade war indefinitely.

A tariff war is “not a desirable or good situation from the South Korean point of view, but what are we supposed to do?” Lee said. “It’s fine and all to pressure foreign companies by hiking tariffs, but it would probably be hard to keep it up when the prices in the United States start to rise.”

 

A victory for Lee would mark a change from Yoon, a conservative who strengthened ties with Washington and Tokyo and aligned more closely with the United States in its strategic competition with China.

 

South Korea’s progressive governments have supported the U.S.-South Korean alliance but have not bent over backward for it, either — preferring to hedge between Washington, which it depends on for its security, and Beijing, which is important for South Korea’s economy and for constraining North Korea.

 

Lee said strengthening the trilateral relationship between the United States, South Korea and Japan was the right thing to do. Washington doesn’t need to “excessively” or “unnecessarily” worry about the strength of the alliance under a South Korean Democratic administration, he said.

 

“If the Democratic Party tries to damage the South Korea-U.S. relationship … what would we gain from that? We would lose more from the deterioration of relations with the United States” than it would gain from only taking China’s side, he said.

 

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Soldiers deploy from amphibious vehicles during a joint military exercise conducted by South Korea and the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps on Sept. 2. (Jintak Han/The Washington Post)

 

Lee is taking a markedly more nuanced foreign policy stance than in the past.​


In 2023, Lee led a 24-day hunger strike to oppose Yoon’s softer stance toward Japan, which occupied the Korean Peninsula, often brutally, from 1910 to 1945. He also sharply criticized U.S.-South Korea-Japan joint military exercises that began under Yoon.

 

Lee’s recent rhetorical shift also reflects his need to appeal to moderate swing voters in a snap election, analysts say. The South Korean public — and particularly younger swing voters — has become more critical of China and North Korea and warmed toward Japan since the last progressive leader left office in 2022, said Park Sung-min, a veteran political analyst.

 

While acknowledging that South Korea and Japan need to cooperate as neighboring democracies, Lee said South Koreans can’t back down from unresolved historical grievances, including a territorial dispute and the compensation of laborers forced to work for Japanese companies during colonization.

 

“I think this is a problem that Japan should resolve like Germany did. … Germany has seriously reflected, and seriously works hard to make sure history doesn’t repeat, and shows their efforts to the world,” Lee said. But Japan had not properly admitted its colonial-era wrongdoings, he said.

 

Japan believes historical issues were resolved when the two nations normalized relations in 1965 and Japan paid $500 million to South Korea to settle colonial-era claims “completely and finally.”

 

A return to tense Tokyo-Seoul relations would concern policy officials in Washington, who want the neighbors to cooperate against a shared threat: Beijing.

 

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Lee, center, attends a rally in Seoul organized by his party on May 20, 2023, to protest Japan’s planned release of treated wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear plant. (Jintak Han/The Washington Post)

 

Despite being the front-runner for the presidency, according to polls, Lee may not even be able to run. He faces several legal hurdles, from allegations of illegally directing funds to North Korea to a corruption scandal involving a development project in Seongnam, where he served as mayor. He has denied the allegations and called the investigations politically motivated.

 

Lee has appealed his November conviction for an election law violation. If the Supreme Court upholds Lee’s guilty verdict before a special election is called, he would be disqualified from running.

 

It’s par for the course for the perennial underdog. Lee grew up in poverty, working in sweatshops as a teen to help support his family, clocking in and out instead of attending middle school. An accident at a glove factory left one arm permanently deformed.

 

He eventually became a labor and human rights lawyer. After serving as Seongnam mayor, he became the governor of Gyeonggi province, just outside Seoul. These varied life experiences helped him “understand the dark sides and other aspects of the world,” he said, and gave him empathy for his constituents.

“It’s not always easy for politicians to feel how much impact a policy has,” Lee said. “But I have experienced it myself.”

 

He names former U.S. president Franklin D. Roosevelt as a role model for his pro-labor New Deal policies, as well as Kim Gu, a famous independence activist during the Japanese occupation.

 

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Lee, on a stretcher, is evacuated after he was injured by an attacker in January 2024 during a visit to Busan, South Korea. (Ha Kyung-min/Newsis/AP)

 

Last year, Lee survived an assassination attempt after a man stabbed him in the neck during an event. “I collapsed and looked at the blue sky and thought, ‘Oh, that sky will soon disappear from my sight. This must be death,’” Lee said. “Now, the time I have left feels like a bonus. It made me a freer person, less worried about the preciousness of my life.”

 

That experience was on his mind on the night of Dec. 3, after Yoon declared martial law. Lee rushed to the National Assembly, where soldiers had gathered to prevent — unsuccessfully, it turned out — lawmakers from voting to reverse Yoon’s decree.

 

As his wife drove him there, Lee started a live stream on his YouTube channel, asking the public to join him.

 

“We need you to protect this country,” Lee said in the video, which has been viewed nearly 3 million times.

His video helped attract crowds of protesters to slow down the soldiers. He kept streaming as he scaled the wall to enter and cast his vote.

 

“I was braced for martial law soldiers surrounding me. I wanted to show them arresting me,” Lee said. “But I didn’t fear them killing me.”

 

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By Michelle Ye Hee Lee

Michelle Ye Hee Lee is The Washington Post's Tokyo bureau chief, covering Japan and the Korean peninsula. follow on X@myhlee


 



3. N. Korea vows stronger defense against 'provocative attempts' by S. Korea, U.S.




​A kind of mirror imaging? It is the Kim family regime that has the hostile policy toward the South and the US and uses provocations to coerce political and economic concessions as part of its blackmail diplomacy.



N. Korea vows stronger defense against 'provocative attempts' by S. Korea, U.S. | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Na-young · February 15, 2025

SEOUL, Feb. 15 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Saturday reaffirmed its commitment to bolstering its defensive capabilities to deter what it calls "provocative attempts" by South Korea and the United States, the North's state media reported Saturday.

"The DPRK's bolstering of its self-defensive capabilities is an essential requirement for deterring rivals' ever-increasing various provocative attempts and ensuring the security of the state," read a press statement of Pyongyang's defense policy chief, released by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

DPRK is the acronym of the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.


This photo, published by the Korean Central News Agency on Feb. 9, 2025, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during his visit to the Ministry of National Defense the previous day in celebration of the 77th anniversary of the founding of its armed forces, the Korean People's Army. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

The statement was released a day after the commander of the U.S. Northern Command, Gen. Gregory Guillot, said before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee that the North's newest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) could pose a direct threat to the U.S. mainland and overwhelm its defenses.

Guillot said Pyongyang may be moving toward producing new ICBMs capable of striking North America.

Pyongyang's defense official slammed the U.S. general's remarks, accusing the U.S. of falsely charging North Korea of making "threats" that are "nonexistent."

"The U.S. describing this as a 'threat' only proves that it is hostile to the DPRK," the official said, noting the U.S. is trying to justify its "adventurous military ambitions."

"It is just self-defensive right of a sovereign state to steadily develop the self-defense capability," he added.

"The armed forces of the DPRK will as ever fully deter and control all kinds of challenges and threats from its rival countries by dint of powerful self-defense capability and faithfully discharge their mission for reliably defending peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the region."

The North's defense policy chief also accused the U.S. of building a missile defense system aimed at preemptively attacking other countries and weaponizing outer space.

He also condemned the U.S. nuclear submarine's recent trip to the Korean Peninsula and information sharing among Seoul, Washington and Tokyo, as well as Seoul's plan to hold joint military and space-related drills with the U.S.

nyway@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Na-young · February 15, 2025





4. 10 Submariners Executed In South Korean Waters: Recalling The Chilling Story Of N.Korea’s Failed Espionage (exceution by north Koreans not South)




​There is actually a lot to this article: from a new South Korea's stamp to submarines and South Korea shipbuilding to the 1996 Sango sub infiltration and the execution as noted in the headline.



10 Submariners Executed In South Korean Waters: Recalling The Chilling Story Of N.Korea’s Failed Espionage

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/24-submariners-killed-in-south-korea-recalling/

By Ashish Dangwal -

February 15, 2025

South Korea will soon launch a set of postage stamps showcasing the ROKS Dosan Ahn Chang-ho submarine, the first time a domestically built submarine will be featured in the country’s stamp collection. 

According to South Korean news agency Yonhap, the stamps will be available for purchase starting February 20. 

The ROKS Dosan Ahn Chang-ho is the lead vessel of South Korea’s KSS-III Batch-1 class, a fleet of 3,000-ton submarines developed with advanced homegrown technologies. 

The submarine, delivered to the Republic of Korea Navy (ROKN) in 2021, enhances the country’s underwater defense posture against North Korean threats.

The second boat, ROKS Ahn Mu, entered service in 2023, while the third and final vessel in the class, ROKS Shin Chae-ho, was handed over last year. 

ROKS Dosan Ahn Changho class submarine- Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of Korea

All three submarines hold significant strategic value in South Korea’s defense framework, representing the country’s largest and most advanced submarine class to date. 

Their design is based on South Korea’s previous two submarine classes—the Jang Bogo and Son Won-Il—which are localized versions of Germany’s Type 209 and Type 214 diesel-electric attack submarines.

South Korea has outlined plans to build nine Dosan Ahn Changho-class submarines (SSBs) in three batches of three boats each. 

With the first batch already completed and delivered, the country has moved on to the next phase. In March 2023, the keel was laid for the first of three extended KSS-III Batch 2 submarines.

The KSS-III Batch 1 submarines are crewed by 50 personnel and have a displacement of 3,358 tons when surfaced and 3,705 tons when submerged. They measure 274 feet in length, with a beam of 31.5 feet.

Like their predecessors in the KSS-II class, these submarines are powered by diesel-electric propulsion with an Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) system that utilizes fuel cell technology. 

This enables them to achieve speeds of up to 20 knots and sustain underwater operations for as long as 20 days without surfacing. 

On the other hand, the Batch 2 submarines will retain the same crew capacity but will be approximately 20 feet longer than their Batch 1 counterparts. The final variants are expected to be even larger and more sophisticated. 

Submarines In Korean Waters

By honoring its domestically built submarine, Seoul underscores the growing weight of these vessels in strengthening the nation’s defense strategy. 

However, this emphasis on submarine capabilities is not unique to South Korea; North Korea also considers its submarine fleet a cornerstone of its military preparedness against the South.

In fact, Pyongyang’s extensive use of submarines, especially for covert operations, has repeatedly triggered tensions and security crises on the Korean Peninsula since the 1953 armistice. 

One of the most infamous North Korean espionage operations took place in September 1996, when a spy submarine ran into trouble off the coast of South Korea and triggered a violent and prolonged manhunt. 

What began as a covert intelligence mission quickly spiraled into a deadly confrontation. On September 14, 1996, a North Korean Sang-O (“Shark”) class submarine set sail from Toejo Dong under the command of Captain Chong Yong-ku. 

File image: The Sang-O-class submarine stranded on the South Korean coast.

Typically operated by a 15-person crew, the vessel was carrying additional personnel: three elite special forces operatives from the Reconnaissance Bureau and Colonel Kim Dong-won, a high-ranking intelligence officer. 

Their mission was to gather intelligence on South Korean military installations in Gangneung, roughly 90 miles south of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). 

At the time, North Korea was facing a catastrophic famine, which, in turn, fueled Pyongyang’s paranoia that South Korea might exploit the crisis. 

The submarine crew was under strict orders to complete their mission at any cost, with no option of returning home in failure. This type of covert operation was not new. North Korean operatives had frequently infiltrated South Korea for sabotage and espionage. 

The submarine arrived near Gangneung on September 15 and deployed its infiltration team under the cover of darkness. The special forces operatives swam ashore while the submarine continued to capture reconnaissance photos along the coastline.  

When the vessel returned to extract the team on September 16, the spies were nowhere to be found. However, during the second attempt to recover them on September 17, the submarine ran aground on a reef just 20 meters from An-in Beach. 

Even after desperate efforts to dislodge the vessel, it remained stuck. Then, Captain Chong ordered the crew to abandon the ship at midnight and set fire to the submarine’s interior before evacuating.

At approximately 1:30 a.m. on September 18, a passing taxi driver noticed the stranded submarine and a group of men gathering on the shore. He immediately reported the sighting to the South Korean military. This forced the local authorities to place the entire Kangwon Province on high alert. 

By morning, thousands of South Korean troops, backed by helicopters and tracking dogs, were mobilized to hunt down the missing crew. The Republic of Korea Navy also deployed vessels to secure the coastline in case additional North Korean submarines were present.

Later that afternoon, a local farmer spotted a suspicious individual in his fields. South Korean soldiers quickly moved in and captured the man, Lee Kwang-soo, the submarine’s helmsman. 

Under interrogation, Lee initially claimed that the submarine had drifted into South Korean waters due to engine failure during a training exercise. However, after further questioning, he confessed that the crew had been engaged in an espionage mission.

Shortly after Lee’s capture, South Korean troops made a chilling discovery on a nearby mountain: ten dead bodies, including Captain Chong and other members of the crew, all executed with gunshots to the head. 

Another body, identified as Colonel Kim, was found separately. It appeared that the North Korean operatives had carried out summary executions of their own comrades to prevent them from being captured alive.

Lee further revealed that the submarine had originally carried 26 personnel, meaning that 14 operatives were still unaccounted for. This sparked a large-scale manhunt across the rugged terrain of Gangwon Province.

Over the next several weeks, South Korean troops engaged in multiple firefights with the dispersed North Korean operatives. By the end of September, 11 infiltrators had been killed, some in direct confrontations and others in apparent suicides to avoid capture. 

The North Koreans also killed a South Korean police officer. Despite the heavy losses, three elite Reconnaissance Bureau operatives remained at large.

South Korea’s President Kim Young-sam issued a stern warning on September 20, threatening retaliatory action if further provocations occurred. Pyongyang, in turn, insisted that the submarine had merely suffered mechanical failure and had unintentionally entered South Korean waters. 

However, tensions escalated when a South Korean consular officer, Choe Deok-geun, was assassinated in Vladivostok on October 1. The method used, a poison similar to one found aboard the captured submarine, suggested North Korea’s involvement in revenge for its fallen operatives.

On November 4, nearly two months after the incident began, two surviving North Korean operatives were spotted near Inje, just 12 miles from the border.

A fierce gun battle ensued, leaving three South Korean soldiers dead before the infiltrators were finally killed. A diary recovered from their bodies detailed their brutal journey across nearly 80 miles of South Korean territory. 

The 49-day operation resulted in 12 South Korean deaths and the elimination of 24 North Korean operatives. Only two infiltrators survived: Lee Kwang-soo, who was captured, and Li Chul-jin, who is believed to have escaped. The manhunt cost South Korea an estimated 200 billion won (US$187 million).

In a rare move, North Korea later issued a statement of regret on December 29. The following day, Seoul returned the cremated remains of the 24 deceased North Korean operatives. 

Yet, Pyongyang’s covert operations continued unabated. Just a year and a half later, another North Korean spy submarine met a similarly disastrous fate near Sokcho. 

In June 1998, a North Korean Yugo-class submarine was caught in a fishing net near the South Korean port of Sokcho. As the vessel was being towed back to port, all crew members were found dead in what appeared to be a murder-suicide. 

Ashish Dangwal

Ashish Dangwal holds a Master's degree in East-Asian studies and has a deep interest in Defence and Geopolitics related issues. He is interested in the impact of technology on foreign policy objectives as well as geopolitical operationality in the Indo-Pacific. Contact: ashishmichel@gmail.com


5. North Korea has sent 200 long-range artillery guns to Russia, Seoul says





North Korea has sent 200 long-range artillery guns to Russia, Seoul says

https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-sends-200-long-range-artillery-units-to-russia-seoul-says/

kyivindependent.com · by Martin Fornusek · February 11, 2025


North Korea has provided Russia with around 200 long-range artillery pieces to boost its war effort against Ukraine, the Yonhap news agency reported on Feb. 11, citing South Korea's Defense Ministry.


Seoul further warned that Pyongyang is likely preparing to send additional troops and arms to back Russia's war, confirming earlier warnings by the Ukrainian intelligence.


North Korea has reportedly also supplied ballistic missiles, millions of artillery shells, and other arms to Moscow. In addition, the country has deployed up to 12,000 troops to Russia's Kursk Oblast to support Russian forces in countering a Ukrainian cross-border incursion launched in early August 2024.


The South Korean Defense Ministry suspects that North Korea is receiving Russia's technological assistance with nuclear-powered submarines and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) in exchange for its military support, Yonhap reported.


According to the Japanese public broadcaster NHK, North Korea is also expected to begin drone production this year with Russian technical assistance.


At least 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed and another 2,700 wounded fighting in Russia's Kursk Oblast, South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) claimed in mid-January.


Ukraine placed North Korean losses to as many as 4,000 killed and injured. Kyiv’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov nevertheless predicted that North Korea might soon send reinforcements to Russia, namely gun and rocket artillery units.


The New York Times reported on Jan. 30 that North Korean troops had been pulled from the front, and a Special Operations Forces spokesperson confirmed to the Kyiv Independent at the time that Ukraine's special forces had not faced Pyongyang's soldiers for three weeks.


On Feb. 7, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that North Korean soldiers were "brought in again" to Kursk Oblast, a day after Russian media claimed Ukraine had launched a new offensive in the Russian region.



kyivindependent.com · by Martin Fornusek · February 11, 2025


6. ‘North Koreans Are Learning. Are You Ready?’ – Zelensky’s Plea in Munich


​Yes they are learning. But can they translate it into effective training for the remainder of the nKPA?



‘North Koreans Are Learning. Are You Ready?’ – Zelensky’s Plea in Munich

With the future of US support becoming uncertain, President Volodymyr Zekenksy made clear where Ukraine stands on NATO and its future.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/47203


by Leo Chiu, Irina Pavlova | February 15, 2025, 4:35 pm


‘North Koreans Are Learning. Are You Ready?’ – Zelensky’s Plea in Munich


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivers a speech during the 61st Munich Security Conference in Munich on February 15, 2025. THOMAS KIENZLE / AFP


During the second day of the Munich Security Conference, President Volodymyr Zelensky made it clear that NATO membership remains Kyiv’s core demand and called for a united Europe.


During his speech, Zelenksy warned that Russia is expanding its army to attack Europe potentially. He mentioned the North Korean troops aiding Russia and asked if Europe was getting ready even as Pyongyang’s troops are learning as they fight with Russia.


“Russia opens new recruitment centers weekly. Oil prices are high enough for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin to ignore the world. We have clear intel that Russia is preparing to send troops to Belarus this summer – maybe to attack Ukraine or maybe not,” Zelensky said.


“Maybe it is meant for you? What can we do before the next invasion?” He asked, adding that North Korean troops, fighting on behalf of Moscow, are “learning fast.”


“Make no mistake: North Koreans are learning fast. What about your armies: are they ready?” he added.


He went on to rally for a united, “self-sufficient” Europe to fend off Russian aggression and suggested that Kyiv troops can help replace the US presence on the continent if Washington decides to roll back its presence.


“Europe needs a single voice, not a dozen different ones,” he said, adding that there is a need to defend Europe through unity.



Russia’s 80th Victory Anniversary Website Excludes Ukraine and Baltic States


A review of the official “One Victory for All” website in which the contribution in WW II of the former USSR republics – except Kyiv’s – is remembered and celebrated.


“The time has come. The Armed Forces of Europe must be created. This is not harder than standing against Russian attacks, which we have already done. Money alone will not stop Russia. It’s not just about budgets, but also people. There is a need to defend your own home,” Zelensky said.


“I proposed to replace US forces with Ukrainian ones if Ukraine is in NATO, of course,” he added – Zelensky’s statement mirrored a recent opinion piece by Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal for Politico.


Zelenksy also hit back at Washington’s statements that Ukraine’s NATO membership is off the table. He added that though he does not believe that there could be security guarantees without the US’s participation, it should be clear that Putin should not have the power over NATO policies.


“I would not take NATO membership for Ukraine off the table… Putin has the power to block NATO decisions. And that’s despite the Ukrainian army and people stopping the Russian aggression,” he added.


“If Russia would come to you, would your country be able to fight the same way as Ukrainians? I don’t wish this on anyone, that’s why we are talking about security guarantees.“



Contact Us


Leo Chiu

Leo Chiu is a news reporter residing in Eastern Europe since 2015 with a profound interest in geopolitics, having witnessed two presidential elections in Belarus and visited numerous contested regions worldwide. He believes in the human side of journalism and that there's a story to be told behind every number and statistic.


Irina Pavlova

Irina Pavlova is an international communications specialist based in Munich. Her professional experiences range from journalism to strategic business communications. A graduate of the Geneva-based Institute of International & Development Studies (IHEID), she has a keen interest in geopolitics and international history.


7. S. Korea, U.S. vow close coordination over N.K. policy


​Here is where to begin:


Strategic Assumption: North Korea will never negotiate away its nuclear capabilities while the Kim family regime remains in power.
 
President-elect Trump did something during his first term that no president had done: “He gave it a shot.” He met Kim and he offered him a future. But it was Kim Jong Un who failed to appreciate the opportunity he had. Now in his second term President Trump has the opportunity to implement new elements of policy and strategy that have never before been attempted. These include a human rights upfront approach that keeps human rights on all agendas, a sophisticated and holistic information campaign, and the support of the Korean people's pursuit of a free and unified Korea. There are few pundits who see the opportunities that both the 8.15 Unification Doctrine and Kim Jong Un with his new hostile policy toward the South are providing to the U.S. and ROK/U.S. alliance. It is time to recognize that the only path to denuclearization is through unification. Most importantly, the prevention of war and nuclear use, and the long term outcome on the Korean peninsula are important to the national security and national prosperity of the U.S.
 
Kim can change. Or Kim can be changed by the Korean people in the North.
 
Koreans must solve the Korea question (the unnatural division of the peninsula) (Para 60 of the Armistice).
 
Key Points:
 
––The United States has failed to achieve denuclearization in North Korea for four decades, and a new approach is needed that includes a new focus on human rights and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea.
 
––South Korea unveiled the 8.15 Unification Doctrine in August 2024, emphasizing freedom, peace, and prosperity as core values for unification.
 
––Kim Jong Un's recent policy changes, including declaring South Korea as the "main enemy" and abandoning peaceful unification, present an opportunity for a new strategy.
 
––Foundation: Deterrence and Defense – prevent war; prepare for conflict and collapse.
 
–– Counter global illicit activities: proliferation to counterfeiting/money laundering to overseas slave labor to cyber attacks and more – an external strategic strangulation campaign.
 
––A human rights up front approach focusing on educating North Koreans about their universal human rights will empower them to create change.
 
––The right of self-determination for the Korean people is a fundamental justification for pursuing a free and unified Korea that requires transformation of the regime.
 
––Martial law crisis shows democracy prevents tyranny – Korea people in north and South will choose democracy over dictatorship
 

––Four paths to unification: war, regime collapse, peaceful unification, and regime transformation. The U.S. (along with South Korea) should support regime transformation by the Korea people in the North as the optimal path to peaceful unification

Bottomline: Unification first then denuclearization; the path to unification is through human rights.



(2nd LD) S. Korea, U.S. vow close coordination over N.K. policy | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · February 15, 2025
(ATTN: RECASTS headline, lead; UPDATES article throughout with outcome of talks)
By Kim Seung-yeon
MUNICH/SEOUL, Feb. 15 (Yonhap) -- The top diplomats of South Korea and the United States agreed Saturday to work closely together on North Korea policy under the Donald Trump administration, reaffirming the commitment to the "complete denuclearization" of the North.
Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reached the agreement during their 40-minute talks held on the margins of the Munich Security Conference in Germany, their first one-on-one meeting since the launch of Trump's second term.
"The two ministers reaffirmed their commitment to the complete denuclearization of North Korea, and agreed to closely cooperate in the formulation and implementation of North Korea policies in the future," South Korea's foreign ministry said in a release following the talks.
"They also shared concerns over military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, and agreed to continue the monitoring of the situation," the ministry said.

Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul (R) poses with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (L) ahead of their talks in Munich on Feb. 15, 2025, in this photo provided by Seoul's foreign ministry. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
The talks came as South Korea is seeking to ensure a smooth path in its ties with the new Trump administration on issues including the bilateral alliance, North Korean threats and Trump's tariff plans.
Regarding tariff issues, Cho called for "mutually beneficial solutions" and expressed "South Korea's commitment to resolving them through close bilateral consultations" with the U.S. side, the ministry said.
Rubio, in response, said that he will relay Seoul's position to Washington, suggesting that the matter be discussed further between the two governments.
Trump's plans to impose tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports and his weighing of new tariffs on cars and chips, have raised the need for swift coordination with Washington amid concerns that South Korea could be the next target of Trump's tariff policies.
At Saturday's talks, Rubio reportedly asked for Seoul's active cooperation in the shipbuilding, energy and other sectors, and Cho expressed South Korea's willingness to do so.
"The minister also highlighted the achievements of South Korea's investments in the U.S. and requested U.S. support to ensure a favorable environment," the ministry said.
Their meeting also came at a time when Seoul is working to continue its diplomatic engagement in the wake of the shocking martial law attempt by now-impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol in early December last year.
To this end, Rubio told Cho that the U.S. values its relationship with South Korea, and seeks to maintain stable and trustworthy relations regardless of domestic political situations in each other's countries, the ministry said.

Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul (R) holds talks U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (2nd from L) on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in Germany on Feb. 15, 2025, in this photo provided by Seoul's foreign ministry. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
The issue of the North's denuclearization has drawn attention after Trump and his officials referred to Pyongyang as a "nuclear power," sparking a debate in Seoul over the possibility of the U.S. recognizing the reclusive regime's possession of nuclear weapons.
Trump later reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to the "complete denuclearization of North Korea" at the recent summit with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
Following their talks, Cho will join Rubio and their Japanese counterpart, Takeshi Iwaya, at the same venue for a trilateral meeting. The three sides were expected to highlight the importance of maintaining and advancing the three-way cooperation.
Cho's three-day visit to Munich also marks his first overseas trip since the martial law debacle.
elly@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · February 15, 2025



8. Rallies for, against Yoon's ouster held on historic street of 1980 pro-democracy uprising in Gwangju


​It is historic that there would be any kind of pro-government rally here.


Is this a "Walter Cronkite moment" for the Minjoo/DPK party? If you have lost Gwangju (Kwangju) you have lost the nation.



(LEAD) Rallies for, against Yoon's ouster held on historic street of 1980 pro-democracy uprising in Gwangju | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · February 15, 2025

(ATTN: UPDATES with more details in last 2 paras; ADDS photos)

GWANGJU, Feb. 15 (Yonhap) -- Crowds of protesters held rallies on the historic street of the pro-democracy uprising of May 18, 1980, in the southwestern city of Gwangju on Saturday, either opposing the ouster of impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol or calling for his removal from office.

Some 10,000 people were estimated to have gathered at Geumnam-ro, the city's central avenue, to participate in a massive prayer event, organized by a conservative Christian group, to oppose Yoon's ouster over his short-lived martial law bid in December.

Geumnam-ro is the historic street symbolizing the May 18 pro-democracy uprising in Gwangju in 1980. Many people were killed and injured in Gwangju as the military brutally cracked down on protesters who rose up against the ruling junta led by Chun Doo-hwan.


This composite photo shows protesters calling for the removal of impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol from office (L) and those opposing Yoon's ouster holding respective rallies on Feb. 15, 2025, at Geumnam-ro, the historic street symbolizing the pro-democracy uprising of May 18, 1980, in Gwangju, some 300 kilometers southwest of Seoul. (Yonhap)


Supporters of impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol hold a rally to oppose his ouster on Feb. 15, 2025, at Geumnam-ro, the historic street symbolizing the pro-democracy uprising of May 18, 1980, in Gwangju, some 300 kilometers southwest of Seoul. (Yonhap)

Saturday's protest came as the Constitutional Court has been holding Yoon's impeachment trials over his botched martial law bid. Yoon was also detained last month on charges of insurrection over his martial law bid.

His supporters called for Yoon's immediate release from prison or verifying the election fraud allegations, cited by Yoon as a main reason for declaring martial law.

Meanwhile, protesters calling for Yoon's ouster also gathered at Geumnam-ro, just across walls of police buses that were set up to prevent potential clashes between demonstrators from opposite ends of the political spectrum.

Around 20,000 protesters, estimated by organizers, participated in the rally, chanting slogans, including "Uphold Yoon's impeachment" and "Out, far-right forces."

Protesters in support of Yoon's removal denounced Yoon's supporters for using Geumnam-ro as a venue to advocate his martial law imposition.

"There is a saying that South Korea's democracy has grown, fed by the blood of Gwangju. We cannot tolerate (Yoon's supporters) defending his martial law bid and supporting the mastermind of insurrection at Geumnam-ro," Hwang Hyun-pil, a YouTuber and Korean history instructor, said.


Protesters call for the ouster of impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol at a rally on Feb. 15, 2025, at Geumnam-ro, the historic street symbolizing the pro-democracy uprising of May 18, 1980, in Gwangju, some 300 kilometers southwest of Seoul. (Yonhap)


(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · February 15, 2025


9. Chinese Embassy in Seoul expresses 'regret' over suspected Yoon supporter's trespassing attempt


​China should express regret for its United Front Work Department trying to subvert South Korea.



Chinese Embassy in Seoul expresses 'regret' over suspected Yoon supporter's trespassing attempt | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Na-young · February 15, 2025

SEOUL, Feb. 15 (Yonhap) -- The Chinese Embassy in Seoul on Saturday expressed regret and concerns over the attempt by a suspected supporter of now-impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to trespass into its building the previous day.

"We are concerned and regretting this case happened," the embassy told Yonhap News Agency, adding it has shared the view with the South Korean government.

The remarks came a day after police arrested a 40-something man who tried to rush through the gate of the Chinese Embassy in central Seoul without permission.

The man, surnamed Ahn, was wearing Captain America's most iconic costume at the time and reportedly made the attempt after saying he would launch a "terror attack" on the embassy.

Shortly after the arrest, Ahn wrote on his social media account, he intended to deliver the "anti-China sentiment" to the embassy.

The embassy said South Korean police are investigating the case and will wait for the probe results.

Earlier this week, Ahn also appeared at the state human rights watchdog's headquarters in Seoul and caused a disturbance.

The National Human Rights Commission of Korea (NHRCK) adopted a controversial recommendation Monday to guarantee Yoon's right to defense during his ongoing impeachment trial at the Constitutional Court.


A man wearing Captain America's iconic costume shows up at the National Human Rights Commission of Korea's building on Feb. 10, 2025. (Yonhap)

nyway@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Na-young · February 15, 2025



10. North Korean IT Workers Penetrate Global Firms to Install System Backdoors


We must attack the all purpose sword of north Korean cyber.


North Korean IT Workers Penetrate Global Firms to Install System Backdoors

cyber securityCyber Security NewsTHREATS

https://gbhackers.com/north-korean-it-workers-penetrate-global-firms/

Published on


February 14, 2025

By

Aman Mishra

IT Workers

In a concerning escalation of cyber threats, North Korean IT operatives have infiltrated global companies, posing as remote workers to introduce system backdoors and exfiltrate sensitive data.


These activities, which generate critical revenue for the heavily sanctioned regime, also pose significant risks to corporate security and international stability.


Fraudulent Hiring

North Korea has capitalized on the global shift to remote work by embedding operatives into international firms under false identities.


These workers, often based in China, Russia, or Southeast Asia, secure employment in IT roles by falsifying credentials and using stolen identities.


Once hired, they exploit their insider access to steal proprietary data, modify application source code, and install backdoors for future cyber operations.


According to Mandiant and other cybersecurity firms, dozens of Fortune 100 companies have unknowingly employed such individuals, exposing their systems to potential espionage and financial fraud.


The operatives frequently use advanced tools like remote monitoring software and VPNs to mask their activities.


Some have even resorted to extortion, holding stolen data hostage for cryptocurrency ransoms.


A recent FBI alert highlighted this shift toward more aggressive tactics, warning businesses of the growing insider threat posed by these actors.


Front Companies

North Korean-linked groups such as PurpleBravo (formerly TAG-120) have been identified as key players in these schemes.


They deploy sophisticated malware like BeaverTail (an infostealer), InvisibleFerret (a Python-based backdoor), and OtterCookie (a persistence tool), targeting industries like cryptocurrency, aerospace, and software development.


System Backdoors

InvisibleFerret Infection chain

These campaigns often begin with job-themed phishing attacks or fraudulent recruitment processes designed to lure victims into downloading malicious software.


Adding another layer of complexity, North Korea operates front companies that mimic legitimate IT firms across countries like China, India, and the United States.


According to the Insikt group, these entities serve as cover for malicious activities while complicating detection efforts.


For example, PurpleBravo has been linked to job postings on platforms like GitHub and Telegram under fake company names such as AgencyHill99.


Organizations that inadvertently hire North Korean IT workers risk violating international sanctions while exposing themselves to severe legal and financial repercussions.


Beyond these immediate risks, the broader implications include threats to intellectual property security and global financial systems.


The U.S. Department of Justice recently indicted two North Korean nationals for orchestrating a six-year scheme that defrauded over 60 companies of nearly $900,000.


To counter this growing threat, cybersecurity experts recommend robust identity verification protocols during hiring processes.


Measures such as video interviews, notarized identification documents, and hardware-based multifactor authentication can help detect fraudulent applicants.


Additionally, companies should monitor remote workers for anomalies and implement technical safeguards like disabling remote desktop software and conducting regular network audits.


As North Korea continues to refine its tactics, collaboration between governments, businesses, and cybersecurity organizations will be essential to mitigate these threats.


Enhanced intelligence-sharing and stricter compliance measures can help close the gaps that allow malicious actors to exploit the global workforce.


This evolving threat underscores the need for vigilance in an increasingly interconnected digital landscape where insider threats can have far-reaching consequences for national security and corporate integrity.


Investigate Real-World Malicious Links & Phishing Attacks With Threat Intelligence Lookup - Try for Free


Aman Mishra

Aman Mishra is a Security and privacy Reporter covering various data breach, cyber crime, malware, & vulnerability.



11. North Korea Leaving Maneuvering Room with the US While Preparing for Long-Term Confrontation



​I agree. Let us not be mistaken. Let's not read too much into Kim's statements and deal with the regime as it really is and not as we would wish it to be.


 We need to understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime and proceed and work from that understanding.


I think Dr. Lee's entire essay could be interpreted through the lens of Kim Jong Un's political warfare strategy.


If Kim does decide to talk then we need to come to the table with a superior political warfare strategy.


​Excerpts:


… But Let Us Not Be Mistaken
Despite these signals, there is not yet evidence that North Korea intends to change its nuclear policy or its policy on the United States. As noted at the outset of this article, North Korea remains consistently clear that it will continue to bolster its defense capabilities. Kim Jong Un’s latest public remarks, including a “strategy for the toughest anti-U.S. counteraction” at the December 2024 party plenum, a “nuclear response posture without limits” at the NWI in January, and the North’s “unshakable policy of more highly developing the nuclear forces” at the Defense Ministry in February, only reaffirm that the country’s preparations for a long-term confrontation with Washington continue.[5]
Perhaps more important is that North Korea’s thinking on the very essence of the United States and its longer-term relationship with Washington may be evolving. Despite its brevity, there was one passage in the 2024 year-end Party plenum report that was particularly interesting: “… the U.S. is the most reactionary state that regards anti-communism as its invariable state policy…” The unusual connection between the United States and “anti-communism”—“imperialist” would be the typical association—is significant because since 2021, North Korea has consistently presented communism as North Korea’s ultimate destination.[6] This passage alone, without further context, would seem to imply that the two countries are fundamentally incompatible in their goals and values, going beyond North Korea’s decades-long US “hostile policy” complaint. This is not necessarily an ideological issue. It could be something more practical, such as North Korea and the United States belonging to two opposing blocs.



North Korea Leaving Maneuvering Room with the US While Preparing for Long-Term Confrontation

https://www.38north.org/2025/02/north-korea-leaving-maneuvering-room-with-the-us-while-preparing-for-long-term-confrontation/


North Korea’s (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or DPRK) public messaging in recent years has been unequivocally and consistently clear that it will not give up its nuclear weapons and instead, will continue to strengthen its capabilities. This was perhaps most vividly demonstrated by Kim Jong Un’s unprecedented visits to nuclear-material production facilities and the Nuclear Weapons Institute (NWI) in September 2024 and in January 2025.[1] The nuclear signaling aligns with Pyongyang’s renunciation of its three-decade policy centered on normalizing bilateral diplomatic ties with the United States by working toward denuclearization.

What is less clear is whether the re-election of Donald Trump as US President may impact Pyongyang’s tactics toward Washington. North Korean media’s unusually brief readout of the annual year-end Party plenary meeting in 2024 offered limited insight into the country’s foreign policy outlook for 2025.[2] Its mention of a “strategy for the toughest anti-U.S. counteraction” seemed to point to more or less the same policy, but not much else.

As expected, official statements and media commentaries following the party plenum have helped to fill some of the void. They suggest that Pyongyang is leaving room for diplomatic maneuvering if it wishes to reengage the Trump administration, while continuing on a path of a “long-term confrontation” with the United States.

Creating Space for Diplomatic Maneuverability …

If the lack of details in North Korea’s latest party plenum report was intended to create some room for diplomatic maneuvering vis-à-vis the new Trump administration, there have been a trail of signs that would seem to support that assessment.

First, the North’s January 22 coverage of Trump’s inauguration—and belated acknowledgement of his election—marked a shift from its initial decision to remain silent on the US presidential election outcome in November. Moreover, this report was carried in media outlets targeting the domestic public as well as external audiences, suggesting North Korea has started priming its people for reengagement with Trump if and when appropriate.

Second, despite the steady stream of official statements and media commentaries criticizing the United States, North Korea’s anti-US rhetoric has softened since early December 2024. Notably, the North’s use of “the US imperialists” has since decreased significantly. This is true for Kim’s public remarks as well, which are regarded as the most authoritative in North Korea. For instance, Kim’s speech at the Defense Ministry on February 8 was the toughest on and the most detailed about the United States since his speech at a national defense exhibition in November 2024. However, unlike in his multiple past speeches at defense-related locations or events, he did not use derogatory terms such as “the US imperialists.” In fact, Kim’s last reported use of the term “the US imperialists” was his defense exhibition speech last November. While there has been an uptick in criticism of the United States since early February, as shown by a series of “KCNA commentary” pieces, the broader trend from December still holds.

Third, North Korean media have refrained from mentioning Trump by name, even when being critical of US statements or actions. When criticism has been issued, it has referred only to “the new US administration,” “the present administration,” or the “US ruler.” [4] The February 12 “KCNA commentary” on the Gaza Strip, for example, blamed the “present US administration” for the plan to take over Gaza, omitting Trump’s name. These pieces were all carried by media outlets targeting the domestic public, probably because they addressed foreign policy issues that are not directly relevant to North Korea. By contrast, the North Korean Foreign Ministry’s criticism of Rubio’s “rogue state” remark was carried only on external websites and was withheld from the domestic audience. This enabled Pyongyang to go on record as rebuffing the remarks to external audiences, while controlling the narrative about the Trump administration at home.

Pyongyang also seems to be creating diplomatic space by attempting to influence Washington’s thinking as it awaits the Trump administration’s new North Korea policy. Its Defense Ministry said the United States was “openly ignoring the security concern of the DPRK” in reference to a US nuclear-powered submarine entering a South Korean port, an unusually direct accusation of the United States “ignoring” its security concerns. When we consider the flip side of this message—do not ignore North Korea’s security concerns—this is in effect Pyongyang’s call on the new administration to factor its “security concerns” into its policy on North Korea.

… But Let Us Not Be Mistaken

Despite these signals, there is not yet evidence that North Korea intends to change its nuclear policy or its policy on the United States. As noted at the outset of this article, North Korea remains consistently clear that it will continue to bolster its defense capabilities. Kim Jong Un’s latest public remarks, including a “strategy for the toughest anti-U.S. counteraction” at the December 2024 party plenum, a “nuclear response posture without limits” at the NWI in January, and the North’s “unshakable policy of more highly developing the nuclear forces” at the Defense Ministry in February, only reaffirm that the country’s preparations for a long-term confrontation with Washington continue.[5]

Perhaps more important is that North Korea’s thinking on the very essence of the United States and its longer-term relationship with Washington may be evolving. Despite its brevity, there was one passage in the 2024 year-end Party plenum report that was particularly interesting: “… the U.S. is the most reactionary state that regards anti-communism as its invariable state policy…” The unusual connection between the United States and “anti-communism”—“imperialist” would be the typical association—is significant because since 2021, North Korea has consistently presented communism as North Korea’s ultimate destination.[6] This passage alone, without further context, would seem to imply that the two countries are fundamentally incompatible in their goals and values, going beyond North Korea’s decades-long US “hostile policy” complaint. This is not necessarily an ideological issue. It could be something more practical, such as North Korea and the United States belonging to two opposing blocs.

Looking Ahead

While North is clearly in no hurry to engage the Trump administration, it has started to create some wriggle room for diplomatic maneuvering. However, we should not expect Pyongyang to change its strategy toward the United States. The key factors that led to the fundamental shift in North Korea’s US policy—Kim’s lesson learned from the Hanoi summit’s collapse that North Korea-US relations are in for a “long-term confrontation,” and intensifying great-power competition—remain intact. In fact, burgeoning Pyongyang-Moscow relations and North Korea’s changed perception of its own self on the global stage make it even less likely that its strategy toward the United States will take a positive turn in the foreseeable future. Kim’s strong show of support for the Russian war against Ukraine in his recent speech at the Defense Ministry underlines the complexities of the situation.

Keep in mind, this is also the final year for North Korea to complete the comprehensive “five-year plan” presented at the Eighth Party Congress in January 2021. That means Pyongyang will prioritize achieving unfinished tasks presented in this plan, including weapons development and testing, over new initiatives—diplomatic or otherwise. Yet, if Kim sees signs that the Trump administration will factor his key security concerns into its new North Korea policy—Kim recently reiterated that the presence of US strategic assets in the region, US-led joint military drills, and US-South Korea-Japan trilateral security cooperation were a grave security challenge—we may see US-North Korea engagement more quickly than anticipated.


  1. [1]
  2. “Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un Inspects Nuclear Weapons Institute and Production Base for Weapon-grade Nuclear Materials,” Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), October 13, 2024, http://kcna.co.jp/item/2024/202409/news13/20240913-03ee.html; and “Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un Inspects Nuclear-material Production Base and Nuclear Weapons Institute,” KCNA, January 29. 2025, http://kcna.co.jp/item/2025/202501/news29/20250129-01ee.html.
  3. [2]
  4. The readout of the annual December party plenary meeting in 2024 offered only brief snippets of Kim’s positions on key domestic and foreign policy issues, rendering any attempt at meaningful analysis impossible. The policy segment constituted 1,275 words, making it the shortest in all of the North’s year-end Party plenum reports since the country started holding such meetings in 2019. Of these, only 191 words, or 15 percent, addressed foreign and defense policy tasks for 2025, making it one of the least informative year-end party plenum reports for these issues. While quantity is not the best (or even a good) way to gauge North Korea’s policy intent, it is an indicator of how much information is available for analysts to work with.
  5. [3]
  6. See, for example, “KCNA Commentary on U.S. Arms Support to Puppet ROK,” KCNA, February 2, 2025, http://kcna.co.jp/item/2025/202502/news02/20250202-08ee.html; “KCNA Commentary on ROK’s Reckless Military Maneuvers,” KCNA, February 9, 2025, http://kcna.co.jp/item/2025/202502/news09/20250209-14ee.html; “KCNA Commentary Denounces U.S. as Ferocious Robber,” KCNA, February 12, 2025, http://kcna.co.jp/item/2025/202502/news12/20250212-15ee.html; and “KCNA Commentary Sneers at Puppet ROK and Its Master,” KCNA, February 14, 2025, http://www.kcna.kp/en/article/q/ffe4fbb6a859f80077a1632bd898697b.kcmsf.
  7. [4]
  8. Examples include “Press
  9. Release of Institute for Disarmament and Peace of DPRK Foreign Ministry,” KCNA, February 3, 2025, http://www.kcna.kp/en/article/q/a20e121f20968f0a03f8f07736614282.kcmsf;
  10. “이란이슬람교혁명지도자 미국과의 협상을 배격,” KCNA, February 10, 2025, http://www.kcna.kp/kp/article/q/3ed720545f2019644bee875708427f7f.kcmsf; “KCNA Commentary Denounces U.S. as Ferocious Robber,” KCNA, February 12, 2025, http://www.kcna.kp/kp/article/q/3ed720545f2019644bee875708427f7f.kcmsf; “로씨야외무성 서방의 량면주의적인 처사를 비난,” KCNA, February 12, 2025, http://www.kcna.kp/kp/article/q/072a322504bf5426ce78c381cff99342.kcmsf; and 허영민, “누구를 비호하고 무엇을 부추기는가,” Rodong Sinmun, February 15, 2025, http://rodong.rep.kp/ko/index.php?MTJAMjAyNS0wMi0xNS1OMDI5QDE1QDJAQDBAMjk==.
  11. [5]
  12. “Report on Enlarged Meeting of Eleventh Plenary Meeting of Eighth Central Committee of WPK,” KCNA, December 29, 2024, http://kcna.co.jp/item/2024/202412/news29/20241229-01ee.html; “김정은총비서 핵물질생산기지와 핵무기연구소 현지지도,” KCNA, January 29, 2025, http://kcna.co.jp/calendar/2025/01/01-29/2025-0129-002.html; and “Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un Pays Congratulatory Visit to Ministry of National Defence on Day of KPA Founding,” KCNA, February 9, 2025, http://kcna.co.jp/item/2025/202502/news09/20250209-01ee.html.
  13.  
  14. [6]
  15. 동태관, “하나는 전체를 위하여, 전체는 하나를 위하여!” Rodong Sinmun, March 18, 2021.


​12. New Korea Rotational Force announced


​Counterintiutive and unacceptable to the incoming USD(P) but I think we should consder returning to permamnet stationing of ground combat forces in Korea. We are not going to employ ground comabt brigades in Tawain. We should also consider returning infantry soldiers to patrolling the DMZ , but this time integrated with ROK infantry units.


New Korea Rotational Force announced

15 February 2025

https://www.pacom.mil/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/4068718/new-korea-rotational-force-announced/

The U.S. Army last month announced that the 1st Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, will replace 1st Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Infantry Division, as part of a regular rotation of forces to support the United States’ commitment to the Republic of Korea.


The 1-SBCT, 4-ID, “Raider Brigade” is based out of Fort Carson, Colorado, and will continue to offer the mobility and flexibility necessary to meet various contingency requirements as an expeditionary, combined arms force organized around mounted infantry. The brigade will arrive later this year.


"This deployment reinforces our commitment to maintaining combat-ready forces capable of supporting U.S. strategic objectives and strengthening our alliance with the Republic of Korea," said Col. Anthony Keller commander of the 1st Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division. "Our Soldiers will train rigorously to ensure they remain lethal, adaptive, and ready to respond alongside our allies."


U.S. Army Pacific routinely schedules and deploys forces on a rotational basis to the Republic of Korea. These deployments support U.S. strategic commitments to the ROK, regional partners and U.S. security obligations. The purpose for these deployments is to maintain a rotational process that cultivates Eighth Army’s readiness, supports U.S. long-term strategic objectives in the ROK and the region, and assures tailored flexibility for the future force structure in Korea. Exposing different units to the Korean theater of operations increase familiarity with the region and builds upon the partnerships between the two forces.


For more information, please contact the Eighth Army Public Affairs Office at usarmy.humphreys.8-army.mbx.public-affairs-office@army.mil.



13. Top diplomats of S. Korea, U.S., Japan reaffirm 'resolute' commitment to 'complete denuclearization' of N. Korea



​Excellent news. Denuclearization and trilateral cooperation.


Top diplomats of S. Korea, U.S., Japan reaffirm 'resolute' commitment to 'complete denuclearization' of N. Korea | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · February 16, 2025

By Song Sang-ho

WASHINGTON, Feb. 15 (Yonhap) -- The top diplomats of South Korea, the United States and Japan on Saturday reaffirmed their "resolute" commitment to the "complete denuclearization" of North Korea and decried "systematic, widespread, and gross" violations of human rights in the reclusive state, a joint statement said.

Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya met trilaterally on the margins of a security forum in Munich, Germany, where they sent a "strong" warning against North Korean provocations and stressed their commitment to reinforcing the global anti-Pyongyang sanctions regime.

During the first three-way talks since Rubio's inauguration last month, the U.S. side also reaffirmed its "ironclad" security commitments to South Korea and Japan, "backed by America's unmatched military strength, including its nuclear capabilities."

"The Secretary and Foreign Ministers reaffirmed their resolute commitment to the complete denuclearization of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) in accordance with the United Nations Security Council Resolutions (UNSCRs)," the three countries said in the statement. DPRK is short for the North's official name.

"They expressed their serious concerns over and the need to address together the DPRK's nuclear and missile programs, malicious cyber activities including cryptocurrency thefts, and increasing military cooperation with Russia," they added.


Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul (L), U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) and Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya meet for a trilateral meeting on the margins of the Munich Security Conference in Germany on Feb. 15, 2025 in this photo released by Seoul's foreign ministry. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

The countries went on to say, "They sent a strong warning that the United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea will not tolerate any provocations or threats to their homelands. They decided to strengthen their trilateral efforts through close policy coordination at all levels."

The statement came amid lingering questions over how the Trump administration will deal with the trilateral partnership that rose to new heights following the three countries' Camp David summit, the first standalone three-way summit in August 2023.

Since the landmark summit, the three countries have deepened cooperation by launching a system for the real-time sharing of North Korean ballistic missile warning data; creating a trilateral military exercise named "Freedom Edge"; and installing a trilateral secretariat to institutionalize their cooperation, among other efforts.

During Saturday's talks, the U.S. restated its "extended deterrence" pledge to mobilize the full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear arms, to defend the Asian allies.

"The United States reaffirmed its commitment to strengthen extended deterrence cooperation through the ROK-U.S. and Japan-U.S. Alliances," they said. ROK is short for South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea.

The three sides decried Pyongyang's human rights record and agreed to beef up the sanctions regime against the recalcitrant regime.

"The Secretary and Foreign Ministers condemned the long-standing and ongoing systematic, widespread, and gross violations of human rights in and by the DPRK," they said.

"They also committed to maintain and strengthen the international sanctions regime against the DPRK by responding firmly to violations and evasions of the relevant UNSCRs and applying pressure on Pyongyang to halt illicit activities that fund its nuclear and missile programs."

sshluck@yna.co.kr

(END)



en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · February 16, 2025



14. S. Korea, Japan hold joint lighting event for 60th anniv. of diplomatic ties


​Another positive step forward. Photos at the link. https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20250215002100315



S. Korea, Japan hold joint lighting event for 60th anniv. of diplomatic ties | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · February 15, 2025

SEOUL/TOKYO, Feb. 15 (Yonhap) -- South Korea and Japan held a joint lighting ceremony Saturday in celebration of the 60th anniversary of the normalization of their diplomatic relations this year, Seoul's foreign ministry said.

N Seoul Tower and Tokyo Tower, iconic landmarks located in the two nations' capitals, were lit up at the same time in the evening, an event meant to look back on the path of their friendship and cooperation, and move toward a new future.

The event was part of Seoul and Tokyo's efforts to hold celebrative projects this year to mark the 60th anniversary of the 1965 signing of the bilateral treaty that normalized their diplomatic ties following Korea's liberation from Japan's 1910-45 colonial rule.


This composite photo, taken Feb. 15, 2025, shows N Seoul Tower (L) in Seoul and Tokyo Tower in Japan's capital, lit up in blue and red, respectively -- colors symbolizing South Korea and Japan's national flags. South Korea and Japan held a joint lighting ceremony in celebration of the 60th anniversary of the normalization of their diplomatic relations this year. (Yonhap)

The upper section of the exterior of N Seoul Tower, turning on at 6:30 p.m., was alternately lit up in blue and red -- colors symbolizing the national flags of South Korea and Japan. The lower section of the tower was illuminated with the image of the logo marking the 60th anniversary.

"With lights symbolizing the 60th anniversary brightly shining on central Seoul, I hope that South Korea and Japan will hold their hands to picture a better future together," First Vice Minister Kim Hong-kyun said at the lighting ceremony.

Japanese Ambassador to South Korea Koichi Mizushima said the two nations have made deep strides in various areas despite many challenges, voicing hope that the two nations will continue to make efforts for friendship and trust.

Meanwhile, the English-language phrase "JAPAN KOREA" was lit up on Tokyo Tower, and Tokyo's landmark was also illuminated in white, red and blue -- colors used in the two countries' national flags.

"(I hope) this year will be a time when the two nations build the relationship that does not sway nor back away after looking back on 60 years of history, and also lay forth a blueprint full of hopes for the future generation of both countries," South Korean Ambassador to Japan Park Cheol-hee said at the lighting ceremony.


This composite photo shows N Seoul Tower, an iconic landmark in Seoul, alternately lit up in blue and red -- colors symbolizing South Korea and Japan's national flags -- on Feb. 15, 2025, in commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries. Tokyo Tower in Japan was also lit up simultaneously to mark the anniversary. (Yonhap)


This photo, taken Feb. 15, 2025, shows the English-language phrase "JAPAN KOREA" lit up on Tokyo Tower in celebration of the 60th anniversary of the normalization of their diplomatic relations this year. (Yonhap)

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · February 15, 2025



15. State Department: “President Trump seeks complete denuclearization of North Korea”… North Korea and Russia dismiss criticism of the US


An important statement.


This is a Google translation of a VOA report.




State Department: “President Trump seeks complete denuclearization of North Korea”… North Korea and Russia dismiss criticism of the US

2025.2.15

Ham Ji-ha

https://www.voakorea.com/a/7975281.html

U.S. President Donald Trump holds a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba after meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., on February 7, 2025. (File photo)

​


The U.S. government has reaffirmed its commitment to complete denuclearization of North Korea. This is in response to North Korea's recent criticism of the U.S. nuclear-powered submarine's entry into South Korea and Russia's assessment of North Korea's denuclearization as "anachronistic." Reporter Ham Ji-ha reports.


The U.S. State Department emphasized that America's goal remains the denuclearization of North Korea.


Trump Administration Reaffirms Fundamental Principles


In response to VOA's request for comment on North Korea's criticism of the entry of a U.S. nuclear-powered submarine into South Korea and the Russian ambassador to North Korea's claim that North Korea's denuclearization was "anachronistic," a State Department spokesperson said, "President Trump will pursue the complete denuclearization of North Korea."


[State Department Spokesperson] “President Trump will pursue the complete denuclearization of North Korea.”


On the 10th, the Los Angeles-class nuclear-powered submarine Alexandria, belonging to the U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet, entered port in Busan, South Korea.


In response, North Korea's state-run media outlet Rodong Sinmun issued a statement, protesting, saying, "The public appearance of a U.S. nuclear submarine in the Korean Peninsula is a concentrated expression of the U.S.'s madness toward confrontation with North Korea that cannot be changed no matter how hard it tries."


In addition, Russian Ambassador to North Korea Alexander Matsegora recently pointed out in an interview with Russian media that “the U.S.’s continued hope for North Korea’s denuclearization is an anachronistic approach.”


In response to these claims by North Korea and Russia, the U.S. State Department today confirmed the Trump administration's principles regarding 'North Korea's denuclearization.'


Earlier, in a joint statement released after the summit with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on the 7th, President Trump said, "The two leaders expressed their grave concerns about North Korea's nuclear and missile programs and reaffirmed their firm commitment to North Korea's complete denuclearization."


On the 28th of last month, White House National Security Council (NSC) spokesman Brian Hughes said in response to VOA’s question about the “goal of North Korea’s denuclearization,” “President Trump will pursue the complete denuclearization of North Korea, just as he did during his first term.”


Recently, some have speculated that the United States may enter into arms control negotiations with North Korea, based on President Trump's reference to North Korea as a "nuclear power."


In fact, President Trump mentioned Chairman Kim Jong-un on the 20th of last month, saying, “Now he (Kim Jong-un) is ‘nuclear power,’ but we’re doing fine.”


In addition, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth referred to “North Korea’s status” as “nuclear power” in a written response submitted to the Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing on the 14th of last month when he was a nominee.


This is Ham Ji-ha from VOA News.


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Ham Ji-ha

jham@voanews.com

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16. Trump can’t denuclearize North Korea. South Korea’s next leader should pursue risk reduction instead


​My caveat: as long as the Kim family regime remains in power.




Trump can’t denuclearize North Korea. South Korea’s next leader should pursue risk reduction instead

By Daeyeon Lee | February 14, 2025

https://thebulletin.org/2025/02/trump-cant-denuclearize-north-korea-south-koreas-next-leader-should-pursue-risk-reduction-instead/


South Korea’s Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung (left) shakes hands with US Ambassador Joseph Yun on January 21, 2025. Lee led the effort to impeach South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol after Yoon declared martial law in December 2024. Credit: Democratic Party of Korea/YouTube


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In November 2016, a real estate mogul named Donald Trump defied expectations and won election as the 45th US president. The following month, South Korea’s legislature passed a bill to impeach conservative President Park Geun-hye over a corruption scandal involving her top aide.


History repeats itself: In November 2024, Trump won a second presidential term. About a month later, South Korean lawmakers voted to impeach conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol over a short-lived martial law declaration.


Reactions to Trump’s return were polarized in the United States. Among foreign countries, Seoul’s response was noteworthy. Like other US allies, citizens in South Korea worry about Trump’s remarks calling their country a “money machine” and vowing to make South Korea accept a ninefold increase in defense cost-sharing. On the other hand, South Korean liberals anticipate a renewed dialogue between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, which could reduce security tensions on the Korean Peninsula.


Most interestingly, pro-Seoul nuclear armament advocates believe that Trump’s return will increase the chances of South Korea acquiring its own nuclear weapons. They cite a 2016 Trump interview and a more recent interview with Elbridge Colby, who served in Trump’s first administration and is set to serve again in his second term, as evidence of Washington’s openness to allowing Seoul to possess nuclear arsenals as a defense against Pyongyang.


A graphic reads, "Watch the 2025 Doomsday Clock announcement. Learn more." beside an image of the Doomsday Clock set at 89 seconds to midnight.

Amid political turmoil in Seoul, proponents of a South Korean nuclear arsenal are unlikely to see their hopes fulfilled during Trump’s presidency, in my opinion. Trump’s transactional approach and his willingness to reengage with Kim Jong Un are likely to instead increase Seoul’s financial burden. Furthermore, Yoon, who is now incarcerated, is likely to be replaced by a progressive leader who is a strong opponent of nuclear armament.


Seoul’s financial burden. Regarding Trump’s transactional approach, he has economic and strategic disincentives to letting Seoul arm itself with nuclear weapons. If Seoul were to do so, its citizens might start to view the expenses for maintaining US Forces Korea—currently agreed to be more than $1.1 billion a year—as unnecessary. They could demand a reduction in US forces or even total withdrawal. Then Seoul would be no longer a “money machine.” Strategically, if the size of the US forces were to shrink, that would weaken US deterrence capabilities against China.


As an alternative, some conservative US Congressmen and security experts have suggested the reintroduction of US tactical nuclear weapons, which were deployed in South Korea during the Cold War, but, given Trump’s transactional approach, he could put a price tag on that. With growing concerns over rising defense costs, the redeployment of US tactical nuclear weapons would pose a significant financial burden on a government that is already experiencing economic instability caused by Yoon’s short-lived martial law.


RELATED:

Tulsi Gabbard as US intelligence chief would undermine efforts against the spread of chemical and biological weapons

Trump’s approach to North Korea. With Trump back in the Oval Office, the possibility of resumed nuclear talks between Trump and Kim Jong Un could weaken pro-Seoul nuclear armament groups’ expectations. During the presidential campaign, Trump often boasted about his relationship with Kim and claimed that his first administration had stopped Pyongyang’s missile launches. His current cabinet picks, composed of loyalists, could swiftly proceed with efforts to meet Kim.


As past data indicate, if nuclear talks between Washington and Pyongyang resume, they could reduce Pyongyang’s nuclear provocations, weakening Seoul’s justification for nuclear weaponization.


However, Trump is not in a favorable position for a summit. A few weeks after Trump’s victory, Kim said that South Korea had “already gone as far as we could through negotiations with the [United States],” and reiterated that he was not interested in “uncompromising” US proposals for denuclearization. Kim is in no hurry to meet Trump after having updated North Korea’s nuclear doctrine and capabilities. Moreover, Kim’s recent ties with Moscow have increased the likelihood of further advancing Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities. Given these complexities, Trump needs new strategies to bring Kim back to the table.


Presumably responding to Kim, Trump called North Korea a “nuclear power” on his inauguration day, as did his new Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in a written statement submitted during his Senate confirmation process, underlining the Trump administration’s willingness to adopt a pragmatic approach.


This week, a tug of war between the United States and North Korea began. For the first time, North Korea condemned the Trump administration for Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s remark labeling North Korea a “rogue state” and criticized Trump’s plan for strengthening global missile defense. Unlike the war of words in 2017, there has been no direct exchange of criticism between Trump and Kim, which leaves the diplomatic window open.


Public opinion and political parties. Since 2023, opinion polls of South Koreans have shown high support for nuclear weapons development, but the credibility of these polls remains uncertain. In November 2024, then-US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Nuclear Affairs Alexandra Bell (who officially became the Bulletin’s president and CEO last week) cautioned that “polls are somewhat framed by the way the question is being asked.” Bell was responding to a Korea Institute for National Unification poll conducted in June 2024, which showed 66 percent support for nuclear armament. As she pointed out, after Trump’s reelection, a poll conducted by the public opinion research agency Media Research showed that more South Korean citizens favored the restoration of relations with North Korea (39.9 percent) than nuclear weaponization (30.8 percent) as a security response to Trump’s second term.


RELATED:

Question for the candidates: How will you reassure allies worried about the credibility of the US security guarantees?

Seoul’s two main political parties have taken contrasting positions over nuclear armament. Key figures in the ruling party, the People’s Power Party, have revealed their openness to acquiring nuclear capabilities. Before a party convention last June, the majority of candidates running for the party’s chief leadership position—who are also likely to be potential presidential candidates if Yoon is impeached—advocated for options such as nuclear armament, nuclear latency (possessing all necessary nuclear capabilities to build a bomb without actually assembling one), and US tactical nuclear weapon redeployment. Among the candidates, Na Kyung-won, a former floor leader of the People’s Power Party, stated that she would push for building a nuclear arsenal as the party’s official platform if elected.


The party’s aspiration for nuclear armament has continued in the aftermath of the US election. Kim Gi-hyeon, a former party leader, proposed a resolution calling for “self-defense nuclear armament.” Once Seoul possesses a nuclear arsenal, he said, its termination would be conditioned on Pyongyang’s denuclearization.


The main opposition party, the Democratic Party, has strongly resisted the idea of possessing a nuclear arsenal, enshrining denuclearization in its party platform. So far, few party members have discussed the possibility of developing a nuclear arsenal, but they have agreed it is unrealistic considering South Korea’s alliance with the United States, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty regime, and regional stability. The current Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung, who has a good chance of becoming the next president, is a strong opponent of nuclear armament, calling it unnecessary, unrealistic, and ineffective in 2023. He reaffirmed his opposition while meeting with the US ambassador to Seoul Philip Goldberg last September.


What Seoul should do instead of pursuing nuclear ambitions. Significant geopolitical change is expected in the region. Along with Trump’s willingness to meet with Kim Jong Un, Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba openly discussed the establishment of a liaison office in Pyongyang and a summit with Kim after he was elected last October. To avoid being sidelined, Seoul should start to discuss how to restore diplomatic relations with Pyongyang.


Seoul can suggest two adjustments to its approach toward Pyongyang. First, Seoul should propose shifting the direction of Seoul-Washington-Tokyo security cooperation from enhancing deterrence to reducing tensions with Pyongyang. Second, Seoul should propose the restoration of the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement, the first implemented arms control agreement between the two Koreas, as a means of reassuring Pyongyang.


With a court ruling on President Yoon’s impeachment trial expected in either late February or early March, risk reduction measures should be discussed within South Korean society and among Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo as soon as possible—before the new administration commences its term 60 days after the court decision.





De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com


 
 
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161


If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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