"Just Thinking"

“Just Thinking"



Well, I was putting this together late last night, but I got a late start because a couple of events on TV demanded my attention. First things first, if you want to be the champ, you have to beat the champ. The "Da Bums" were back-to-back champions until Thursday night, when the Brew Crew rolled into Los Angeles and completed a sweep of the defending champs on their home turf.


I don't want to come across as a hater, but I've been a Giants fan my entire life, and my second favorite team has always been whoever is playing the Dodgers. So, while the Giants are facing a lot of rebuilding, I have to admit that I enjoyed seeing Milwaukee send the champs packing.


Elated by the outcome but still not getting any writing done, I flipped over to Prime just in time to see the Seahawks tie the Broncos at the end of regulation sending the game into overtime. I stuck around long enough to see Sam Darnold throw an interception and Denver hitting a game-winning field goal. Although it's still early in the season, that was Seattle's third loss, matching the Rams with three defeats, while the 49ers remain undefeated with wins over both teams. That was some must-see sports TV.


I was reading the news this morning and saw that there are Red Flag Warnings across much of Los Angeles County as Santa Ana winds began to strengthen. Forecasters were calling for gusts approaching 70 mph across parts of Southern California, with humidity levels expected to drop to as low as 5%. I didn't hear much discussion about the weather during the game, but I wasn't listening with the sound turned on the entire game.


The forecast immediately brought back memories of the devastating Los Angeles fires of January 2025. The Santa Ana winds played a major role in the spread of those fires, carrying embers miles ahead of the flames and turning small ignitions into fast-moving infernos. Even now, less than two years later, many families and communities are still struggling to recover from the destruction. The fires burned more than 57,000 acres, forced over 200,000 people to evacuate, claimed at least 31 lives, and destroyed or damaged more than 18,000 structures. Hopefully, the warnings and lessons learned from that traumatic experience will help to prevent any disasters this year.


On the topic of weather, this year's El Niño has continued to strengthen and is expected to remain in place through the winter months. El Niño occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal, altering weather patterns around the globe. Current forecasts suggest a very strong El Niño will most likely continue into early 2027. For us here in California, that means a wetter-than-normal winter, with more frequent storms and heavier than normal rainfall, batten down the hatches.


This week in 1947 marks the anniversary of one of the greatest achievements in aviation history. On October 14, 1947, U.S. Air Force Captain Chuck Yeager became the first person to break the sound barrier. Much like Sir Roger Bannister's historic four-minute mile years later, many people believed it was a limit that simply could not be surpassed. At the time, aviators feared that the tremendous forces created near the speed of sound would cause aircraft to become uncontrollable or even disintegrate in flight.


That all changed when Yeager climbed into the Bell X-1, nicknamed the Glamorous Glennis after his wife. He was carried beneath the bomb bay of a B-29 and released at approximately 25,000 feet over Rogers Dry Lake in Southern California, the rocket-powered X-1 accelerated rapidly, climbing to nearly 40,000 feet and becoming the first aircraft to fly faster than the speed of sound. In a matter of minutes, Yeager accomplished what many experts believed was impossible and opened the door to the supersonic age.


The achievement was memorably portrayed in the 1983 film The Right Stuff, where Chuck Yeager was played by actor Sam Shepard. The film captured not only the danger and excitement of test flying but also the courage of the men willing to push beyond the known limits of flight. One of the movie's most memorable quotes, attributed to Yeager, sums up the challenge perfectly: "You're not flying against a machine, you're flying against the natural law of the universe."


Let me know what you think.

 
 
 

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This Weeks Top Story

AGNT’s Leo Pareja: Stop Waiting for a Crash. It Came 3 Years Ago.

AGNT CEO Leo Pareja says the housing market collapse happened three years ago in sales volume and shares his 2027 outlook for rates and prices.


A lot of people have been waiting for a housing market crash. AGNT, Inc. CEO Leo Pareja says it happened three years ago, but it didn’t show up as plummeting prices. Pareja explained:

 

“The collapse already happened three years ago. It happened in the transaction count.”

 

Pareja shared the housing data, along with the population math, behind his outlook in a keynote at eXpcon 2026 in Salt Lake City last week. From there, he covered where he sees mortgage rates and home prices heading, along with where agents can find business next year.

 

Let’s dive in. 

 

The Collapse in Home Sales 

 

When speaking about transaction counts, Pareja told agents the crash they keep waiting for is behind them.


“I’ve been telling agents for months, winter is here. Anyone else feel like the whole world is waiting or worried about the collapse? The collapse already happened. It happened in transaction count. Look at the graph. 1996, we sold 4 million homes. But you’re forgetting an important part of that math problem. The population in the United States back then was 269 million. And this year we’ll sell about 4 million homes again with 342 million.”


So the country has 73 million more people than it did in 1996, and it’s selling around the same number of homes. The collapse Pareja is talking about is the stretch since 2023, when sales have hovered around 4 million a year. 


He traced it back to two boom periods, when low rates and frantic demand pulled in buyers who would have bought down the road. Those buyers are gone from today’s market.


Pareja said the booms changed what the industry thinks a normal year looks like.


“Two record-breaking booms warped our expectation. They stole tomorrow’s buyers with low interest rates and a frenzy that we’re just sitting through the hangover of.”


Why Pareja Doesn’t Expect Lower Rates or a Price Crash

 

Pareja told agents the industry has spent two decades measuring itself against years that weren’t normal.


“The last 20 years were so crazy because we forgot what normal looks like. I almost called this ‘anchored in anomaly’ because that’s what happened. We’ve had two extreme markets.”


He gave a few rate numbers to put those years in context:


  • The Fed has cut rates to zero twice since 1954, once after the Great Recession and once during COVID-19
  • 30-year mortgage rates have averaged 7.7% since 1971
  • Rates this year sit below that long-run average


Pareja doesn’t see rates dropping next year. He explained that mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield, so a Fed rate cut won’t guarantee cheaper mortgages.

Finish - The Full Story


October 6, 2026

Sarah Lentz

Housing Market

Properties For Sale

Real Estate News Sites


Previous Newsletters

October 9th

Aging Homeowners Will Free Up 13.9 Million Homes by 2036

https://conta.cc/4jeKqjs

October 2nd

The Median Down Payment Falls to $27,100, a Four-Year Spring Low

https://conta.cc/4rMZC9M

September 25th

Seller Concessions Reach a Six-Year High Across the Country

https://conta.cc/4yqlzO4

September 18th

The Fed Just Raised Rates for the First Time in 3 Years...

https://conta.cc/4hepF4y

September 11th

East Bay buyers gain negotiating power

https://conta.cc/4yy4ba1

September 4th

New Home Median Prices are Now $40K Cheaper Than Existing...

https://conta.cc/3SPJEhP

August 28th

Housing Market Realities Agents Should Be Talking About Right...

https://conta.cc/4gsf2L2

August 21st

Nearly 80% of Major Metros Are Now Buyer’s Markets

https://conta.cc/4quiOrT

August 14th

Is There a Housing Shortage in the U.S. Right Now? Ivy Zelman Says

https://conta.cc/4hzVFlB

August 7th

Ryan Serhant Says There Are Now “Four Americas” in Housing

https://conta.cc/4z4gnjE

July 31st

Here's Why New-Home Shoppers Keep Showing Up

https://conta.cc/4fD3wvU

July 24th

Housing Costs Are the Top Issue for Young Voters Heading Into...

https://conta.cc/4bbrqNU

July 17th

Median Home Price Reached an All Time High in June

https://conta.cc/3RGrsGT

July 10th

Realtor.com’s 2026 Midyear Forecast Cuts Home Price Growth

https://conta.cc/4ywvsdV

July 3rd

New Survey Shows 53% Prefer Buying over Renting for the...

https://conta.cc/4b6TdPn

June 26th

Nearly Half of All Home Sellers Are Giving Concessions to Buyers...

https://conta.cc/3QAxzfv

June 19th

Existing-Home Sales Hit Highest Level Since December

https://conta.cc/4v0KN40

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