A LOOK FORWARD1


  • This week is fairly light on economic data, but ISM Services, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, and a preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Survey will demand investors’ attention.


How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?


  • Given the services sector accounts for roughly 70% of the U.S. economy, the forthcoming ISM report should provide a good indication of recent broad economic activity.
  • And Fed minutes will clarify how committee members are thinking about and planning to address those conditions with potential monetary policy changes.



BY THE NUMBERS


Spending on AI Is Becoming Almost Impossible for Businesses to Budget: First, there was #tokenmaxxing, whereby American businesses encouraged their workers to use as much AI as possible. Then came the bill. Companies started to realize they need to be more careful about counting their tokens, the units that measure AI use. And that’s hard to do: A recent study found that only 11% of nearly 400 businesses surveyed were able to accurately forecast AI spending. Unlike traditional software, AI behaves more like a human worker: It takes action, makes decisions, sometimes even makes mistakes—all on the clock. While more-advanced models tend to cost more per token, they can sometimes perform tasks more efficiently, leading to lower overall costs. Likewise, asking a “cheap” model to do something it isn’t suited to handle could cause a token run-up.3


The College Football Stars Who Banked Millions – and Completely Flopped: It was the most crucial snap of the season, and time for Michigan’s $3 million investment to deliver. The Wolverines were fighting to keep their hopes in the Big Ten alive, trailing Minnesota 20-14 on Saturday afternoon, when sophomore quarterback Bryce Underwood faced a fourth-and-5. Underwood dropped back, surveyed the field, and chucked a panicked throw straight out of bounds. The game was over. Michigan’s season almost certainly was, too. Two years ago, the Wolverines had thrown NIL money at Underwood, the country’s No. 1 high school recruit. It was a $3 million-per-year effort bankrolled in part by Larry Ellison and his wife, Jolin. But now, one of college sports’ most high-profile investments was amounting to nothing. “We might have to make some tough decisions here,” Michigan coach Kyle Whittingham said Saturday night, after the Wolverines dropped to 0-2 in the Big Ten. “The results are unacceptable right now.” 4

    Matthew J. Lawler, Financial Advisor

matt.lawler@osaicwealth.com  402-412-5008


Securities offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC Advisory Services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. Matthew J. Lawler Representative  F&M Wealth Management and F&M Bank are not affiliated with Osaic Wealth, Inc.

 May Lose Value - Not FDIC-Insured - No Bank Guarantee - Not a Deposit - Not Insured by any Government Agency

Economic Definitions


Employment Report (Jobs Report): Formally known as the Employment Situation, the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics report provides a broad view of U.S. labor-market conditions using two surveys. It includes key measures such as nonfarm payroll growth, the unemployment rate, labor-force participation, average hourly earnings and the average workweek, along with employment trends across major industries. 

Federal Reserve (Fed): The Federal Reserve System is the central banking system of the United States of America.

GDP: Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the final market value of all goods and services produced within a country. It is the most frequently used indicator of economic activity. The GDP by expenditure approach measures total final expenditures (at purchasers' prices), including exports less imports. This concept is adjusted for inflation.

ISM Manufacturing PMI: Measures the direction of U.S. manufacturing activity based on a monthly survey of supply management executives across industries, covering areas such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories; readings above 50 generally indicate manufacturing expansion, while readings below 50 indicate contraction.

ISM Services Index: The Services ISM PMI (formerly the ISM Report On Business) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries) this report shows the percentage reporting each response, and the diffusion index. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy in that index is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Orders to the service producers make up about 90 percent of the US economy.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS): This concept tracks the number of specific job openings in an economy. Job vacancies generally include either newly created or unoccupied positions (or those that are about to become vacant) where an employer is taking specific actions to fill these positions.

Personal Consumption Expenditures PCE (headline and core): PCE deflators (or personal consumption expenditure deflators) track overall price changes for goods and services purchased by consumers. Deflators are calculated by dividing the appropriate nominal series by the corresponding real series and multiplying by 100.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: Consumer confidence tracks sentiment among households or consumers. The results are based on surveys conducted among a random sample of households. Target Audience: representative sample of US households (excluding Alaska and Hawaii). Surveys of Consumers collects data on consumer attitudes and expectations summarized in the Consumer Sentiment, in order to determine the changes in consumers' willingness to buy and to predict their subsequent discretionary expenditures. This Index is comprised of measures of attitudes toward personal finances, general business conditions, and market conditions or prices. Components of the Index of Consumer Sentiment are included in the Leading Indicator Composite Index. Unit: Index (Q1 1966=100).


Index Definitions


S&P 500: The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

NASDAQ: The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of February 5, 1971.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Russell Mid-Cap: Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index.

Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The real-time value is calculated with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986. The end-of-day value is calculated with a base value of 100.00 as of December 29, 1978.

MSCI EAFE: The MSCI EAFE Index is a free-float weighted equity index. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. The MSCI EAFE region covers DM countries in Europe, Australasia, Israel, and the Far East.

MSCI EM: The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid-cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Bond: The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).

Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Corp: The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Barclays EM country definition, are excluded.

Moody's, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Barclays EM country definition,

are excluded.

Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg: The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index is a flagship measure of global investment grade debt from twenty-four local currency markets. This multi-currency benchmark includes treasury, government-related, corporate and securitized fixed-rate bonds from both developed and emerging markets issuers.

Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index: The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Municipal Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax-exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds and prerefunded bonds.

Disclosures


The statements provided herein are based solely on the opinions of the Osaic Research Team and are being provided for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Any opinions provided herein should not be relied upon for investment decisions and may differ from those of other departments or divisions of Osaic Wealth, Inc. (“Osaic”) or its affiliates.


Certain information may be based on information received from sources the Osaic Research Team considers reliable; however, the accuracy and completeness of such information cannot be guaranteed. Certain statements contained herein may constitute “projections,” “forecasts” and other “forward-looking statements” which do not reflect actual results and are based primarily upon applying retroactively a hypothetical set of assumptions to certain historical financial information. Any opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements presented herein reflect the judgment of the Osaic Research Team only as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. Osaic has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements. Osaic is not soliciting or recommending any action based on any information in this document.


Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss. In general, the bond market is volatile; bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed-income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss. Vehicles that invest in lower-rated debt securities (commonly referred to as junk bonds or high-yield bonds) involve additional risks because of the lower credit quality of the securities in the portfolio. International investing involves special risks not present with U.S. investments due to factors such as increased volatility, currency fluctuation, and differences in auditing and other financial standards. These risks can be accentuated in emerging markets.


Index performance does not reflect the deduction of any fees and expenses, and if deducted, performance would be reduced. Indexes are unmanaged and investors are not able to invest directly into any index. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.


Securities and investment advisory services are offered through the firms: Osaic Wealth, Inc. and Osaic Institutions, Inc., brokerdealers, registered investment advisers, and members of FINRA and SIPC. Securities are offered through Osaic Services, Inc. and Ladenburg Thalmann & Co., broker-dealers and members of FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services are offered through Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, Inc., Osaic Advisory Services, LLC. and CW Advisors, LLC., registered investment advisers. Advisory programs offered by Osaic Wealth, Inc. are sponsored by VISION2020 Wealth Management Corp., an affiliated registered investment adviser. 9161583

1 Data Obtained from Bloomberg as of 10/2/26.

2 Data Obtained from Morningstar as of 10/2/26

3 Spending on AI is becoming almost impossible for businesses to budget

4 The college football stars who banked millions—and completely flopped