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Weekly Analyst Review

8 May 2024

 

Bottom Line Up Front

On 5 May 2024, Islamic State West Africa (ISWA/Wilayat Wasat Afriqiyah) released a photoset depicting education, food distribution and governance activities in the West Africa Province. Although the exact location of this photoset remains undisclosed, TRAC asserts that the images were captured somewhere in northwestern Nigeria, where the Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) exerts significant influence. However, it’s crucial to recognize that ISWA’s operations extend beyond Nigeria’s borders, as evidenced by their increasingly frequent cross-border attacks into neighbouring Niger, Cameroon, and Chad.


This marks the second recent release of a photoset from Africa depicting the efforts of Islamic State franchises in ‘State building.’ Only last week, Islamic State Mozambique (IS-M/Shabaab Cult/Wilyat Muzinbik) released a very similar photoset.


These images provide valuable insights into the on-the-ground situation, suggesting that ISWA, akin to Islamic State Mozambique (IS-M/Shabaab Cults), is adapting its strategy in certain areas, transitioning towards a more governance-oriented approach rather than solely focusing on aggression. The apparent confidence displayed by ISWA in leading classes and prayers during daylight hours, along with their provision of essential commodities to villagers, serves as potent propaganda material that could sway local populations into supporting them.


Similar to the photoset out of Mozambique, the presence of numerous children, often referred to as “IS Cubs,” in the photoset is of particular concern. The deliberate indoctrination of children ensures the perpetuation of ISWA’s ideology across future generations, solidifying their control over the hearts and minds of those living in Islamic State territory. Moreover, the distribution of food by ISWA fighters fosters a sense of trust and dependency among the population, especially in regions where government efforts to alleviate poverty and provide basic necessities have been inadequate, such as in Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, and Chad.

It is important to note that several individuals are seen wearing vests inscribed with the words ‘West African Governors Hisba.’ Hisba forces during the height of the Caliphate were used for everything from ensuring that men's beards and pant length adhered to Islamic law to ensuring that items sold were within their expiration date. In this particular photoset, the West African Hisba was also checking expiration dates and burning the out-of-date product. This observation further supports TRAC's assertion that the IS African Franchises are moving toward the establishment of a new Caliphate 2.0. It is unclear that burning usable items, even if out of date, will win hearts and minds in hunger-stricken Borno.

Other Developments

TRAC Incident Report: M23 Militants Seize Town Essential to Global Electronic Battery Production, Rubaya, North Kivu, Congo (DR)

On 30 April 2024, the town of Rubaya was seized by M23 forces following a fierce confrontation with the Congolese (DR) Military. Rubaya holds strategic significance due to its central role in coltan mining, a vital resource for mobile phone manufacturing. This event marks another triumph for the M23, adding to a series of recent successes. Despite assurances from M23 militants that they will refrain from attacking coltan workers, it's important to note their history of targeting civilians. 


The recent series of successful attacks by M23 has had far-reaching consequences across Congolese society. Attacks on small villages, such as this one, further exacerbate the IDP issue seen in Congo (DR), where the UN estimates at least 6 million people are internally displaced. While this figure spans the entire nation, it’s crucial to recognize that M23 operates at the epicenter of what can be termed as a “militant corridor” stretching from North Kivu to Ituri provinces. Undoubtedly, M23’s activities contribute significantly to these alarming displacement numbers.


Furthermore, the implications of M23’s actions extend beyond humanitarian crises. The capture of strategic locations like Rubaya, coupled with economic support from Rwanda, not only fuels their destructive capabilities but also hints at future devastation. The potential profits and external support only serve to embolden M23, intensifying the cycle of violence and instability in the region.


The Democratic Republic of Congo boasts the world's second-highest production of coltan, with Rubaya, situated in the Masisi district, serving as a key centre for mining activities. Coltan plays a vital role in the production of batteries for electric vehicles and mobile phones, making it a highly sought-after resource.


It is worth noting that DRC is currently suing Apple and have written Tim Cook, Apple's CEO asking for answers about their supply chain materials for the iPhone batteries, questioning Apple's ethical mining practices within Congo (DRC). The clear implication DRC is making is the accusation that Apple is actively buying coltan from militants.

TRAC Incident Report: Suspected Islamic State Mozambique (IS-M/Shabaab Cult/Wilyat Muzinbik) Militants Downed a Military Helicopter in Mucojo, Macomia District, Cabo Delgado, Mozambique

On 3 May 2024, suspected Islamic State Mozambique (IS-M/Shabaab Cult/Wilyat Muzinbik) militants downed a military helicopter in Mucojo, Cabo Delgado, Mozambique. The militants reported that the subsequent crash killed the pilot and the one officer on board.


This is the second-ever recorded downing of a helicopter by Islamic State Mozambique (IS-M/Shabaab Cult/Wilyat Muzinbik) militants, the last time being in 2020.


The downing of a helicopter cannot be ignored, though with the significant level of control that IS-M has over the region, this was an eventuality. Helicopters are unique for aircrafts in the sense that they are rather prone to small arms fires, making it difficult to say if the group has specific anti-aircraft capabilities, or if the group was able to hit the pilot or one of the many vulnerable parts of a helicopter.


Mucojo is of interest specifically as sources on the ground recently confirmed that Islamic State Mozambique (IS-M/Shabaab Cult) militants have established their own administration in Mucojo of Macomia district, Cabo Delgado province itself. Mucojo fell under IS-M control in February and has since been governed by the group, along with several neighbouring villages. The militants have set up checkpoints on roads leading to the town, as well as apparent anti-air defenses, where they scrutinize the documents of incoming individuals, particularly searching for potential spies. Residents have indicated that Sharia law and IS’s administrative structures are now enforced, with monitoring.

TRAC Incident Report: Los Salazar Hitmen Kidnap, Torture, and Execute Members of Los Deltas/Los Chapitos Faction of the Sinaloa Cartel (CDS), Sonora, Mexico

On 29 April 2024, several videos were circulated on social media depicting members of the Los Salazar crime group torturing and executing two members of the Los Chapitos/Los Deltas wing of the Sinaloa Cartel (CDS). The two victims were bound at the wrists and ankles, blindfolded with tape, beaten with planks, forced to kiss each other, and then executed in a pit in the desert of Sonora. A pickaxe was used during the execution, as well as a handgun.


The war between Los Salazar criminal organization and the Los Chapitos faction of the Sinaloa Cartel (CDS) has been ongoing for many months. While both groups used to belong to the same CDS organization, changes in leadership due to arrests and death have led to a schism between the two factions. TRAC has documented several instances of infighting between these two groups, as well as conflicts involving other armed factions of CDS, including Los Deltas, Los Cazadores, and Los Fantasmas.

 

TRAC Incident Report: Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) Militants Double-Tap IED Strike on CPEC Vehicles & Pakistan Armed Forces Quick Reaction Forces, in Dukki, Loralai, Balochistan, Pakistan

(Claim / Anonymous Anarchist) Anarchist Target the Garden Shed of the CEO of Rheinmetall with an Incendiary Device, in Hermannsburg, Germany

TRAC Incident Report: Suspected Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) Militants Arson Attack Targeting a Humanitarian Aid Truck, on the Road from Ansongo to Menaka, Menaka Region, Mali


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