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"Just Thinking"
"Patriot" is a TV series that I watched on Amazon, it was a mix of dark comedy and drama. It follows the life of an intelligence officer John Tavner, played by Michael Dorman, the actor that plays Joe Pickett, another favorite show. Tavner, is a troubled operative, on a mission to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities. Despite his unique ability for the job, he struggles with the toll it takes on him personally and his family, resorts to thigs like singing folk music, pouring his thoughts into intense journal entries, and manically riding his bike, that he has removed the brakes from, through traffic as coping mechanisms. The show goes into espionage, ethics, and the personal sacrifices he makes in service to his country. It’s a crazy mix of humor and drama that offers a unique perspective, on the spy genre.

In one-episode Tavner must break into a building, for an operation, to do complete the task, he needs to climb 5 fences that are wired with electricity. One of his friends is concerned about the daunting task and asks him how he is going to climb the 5 fences, he responds that he is only concerned with climbing 3 of the fences. He then says a line that stuck with me ever since, "If you can reach halfway and take one more step forward it becomes harder to turn back than to push through till the end; so why not just finish?"

Wow, how often do we struggle to complete a task, to question the validity of finishing, when the hard part is done, the job has begun, and it is much easier to see it through. It is human nature to put things off, to procrastinate and to make excuses, often the hardest part is getting started. Or, as Mary Poppins sings in “A Spoonful of Sugar, "In every job that must be done, there is an element of fun. You find the fun, and snap, the job's a game!"

I have used Tavner’s philosophy on myself many times since hearing it. On my walks when I’m thinking about work or something else that I could be doing and am contemplating cutting it short, one more step. When I procrastinate writing my “Just Thinking” story, I tell myself, just start, as Aristotle said, “well begun is halfway done” and if you are halfway, why not finish.

There is also the satisfaction that comes with completing a task and the pride that comes with a job well done.

Let me know what you think.
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This Weeks Top Story
Wait-And-See: Powell on Rate Cuts, Housing Inflation and Market Rents
At the end of 2023, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that three rate cuts were likely for 2024. Yet, leading up the the April 30- May 1 FOMC meeting, nobody was expecting the first cut to happen, as stubborn inflation has left the Fed in a holding pattern. Yesterday, it was announced that the Fed would continue to hold rates steady. 
 
During his FOMC press conference on May 1, 2024, Powell remarked that inflation is still too high, and the Fed needs more confidence that inflation is moving toward the 2% target before considering rate cuts. He also indicated that is unlikely the next policy move will be a rate hike—an announcement that led to a significant rally in major stock indexes. 
 
As the Fed looks for signs of cooling inflation, it is closely monitoring the labor market and is prepared to adjust its policies in response to any significant changes. The resilience of the job market is particularly important, as it could influence the timing of future rate adjustments. Additionally, starting in June, the Fed plans to implement adjustments to its quantitative tightening strategy by reducing its monthly cap on Treasury securities. This change will significantly lower the annual reduction in holdings compared to the initial amounts set when the program began, signaling a cautious approach to shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet.

Of course, Powell spoke about housing during his press conference—noting that housing disinflation continues to lag. Below, find all the timestamps when Powell spoke about housing, including his expectations for market rents.  

COMMENTS ON HOUSING FROM POWELL’S OPENING STATEMENT

02:05 – “Consumer spending has been robust over the past several quarters, even as high interest rates have weighed on housing and equipment investment. Improving supply conditions have supported resilient demand and the strong performance of the U.S. economy over the past year.
 
03:53 – “My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent objective.”
 
HOUSING-RELATED COMMENTS FROM THE Q&A SEGMENT OF FOMC PRESS CONFERENCE

07:52 – QUESTION FROM HOWARD SCHNEIDER, REUTERS:

“Do you consider the current policy rate still…are you confident that it’s sufficiently restrictive to get inflation back to 2%?” 
Powell’s response (08:06):
 
“I do think the evidence shows you know pretty clearly that policy is restrictive and is weighing on demand and there are a few places I would point to for that. You can start with the labor market. So, demand is still strong—the demand side of the labor market in particular—but it’s cooled from its extremely high level of a couple years ago...
Finish - The Full Story

Posted by:
Vanessa Bowman
May 2, 2024 
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Previous Newsletters
April 26th
Nearly 40% Of Homeowners Couldn’t Afford Their Homes Today
https://conta.cc/4bdmIN2
April 19th
Nearly 20% Of Home Sellers Take A Loss In This City...
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February 9th
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February 2nd
Fed Chair Jerome Powell: “We’re Not Targeting Housing Price
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January 26th
80% of Homebuyers Willing to Adjust Plans in 2024
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Chuck's Blog "Tales From the Trail"

The road is frighteningly long if all you see is the end.
So, make reaching the end of the road your goal.
Step forward every day with a clear vision of the end.
Step after step, day after day moving forward.
You'll reach the end and achieve your goal and realize that the journey was the point all along.
Citizen Number One
https://music.apple.com/us/artist/citizen-number-one/1474111440
@Citizen.Number.One