Thoughts on Climate Descendants

Climate Descendants

Greetings,

It has gone from Mud Season to

No-Mow-May where I live, and I could not be happier. I like living where the

seasons distinctly change, even if it means that the weather sometimes doesn't seem to know what season it is in. Even if it means that the seasonal lengths are changing, with major encroachment on winter. Even if it means that the Ticks are now forever

here due to the higher temps allowing them to get through the cold months.

Spring and early summer is also well known here for another reason. It is baby animal season, and time for the animal moms (and in some cases dads) to spend a lot of their time nurturing and otherwise taking care of their young ones. They innately help the young ones to prepare to thrive in the future.

This is also of course the case with humans, i.e. to care for and protect their young and look out for

their welfare. Unlike animals, our life spans are long but thankfully we have the mental acuity to be able to think more comprehensively about the future.

Because of that we make sacrifices for our kids' lives to be better. We protect them while they are young. We save money to send them to college. We might save to help them buy a home.

But what we don't seem to be doing is thinking about how the future may and/or will be different for kids in the future because of climate change. We don't seem to be adjusting our brains to the fact that there is now more for us to think about in terms of what we do now that will benefit or protect our kids in the future.

That is something I will talk about in my commentary below...

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Links to Past Posts:

Emissions as a Choice in Flying

The Forgotten Climate Holiday in April (not Earth Day)

Climate Change and the Snail Darter

St. Patrick's Day and Climate Change

Charging My Car in Manhattan

Step Into These Shoes Wearing a Climate and Energy Hat

Resilience Recognition is Rising - But There is That Other Thing

There is no "O" in Climate Change

It was an Instagram COP - And I am Finally OK with That

How to Talk About Climate With Your Crazy Uncle at Thanksgiving

Monty Python and Climate Change

What You Need to Know About NIMBYism

H mm..So How Much Did My Heat Pump Really Cost?

What it Means to Be a Climate Voter

The Climate Conundrum of Air Conditioning

Predictions Made About Utilities Made 10 Years Ago - How Did They Hold up?

My Vote For The Most Under-Appreciated Impact of Climate Change

10 Things I Should Have Written About

So I Went to the COP - Here Are My Top 10 Takeaways.

Efficiency and Clean Energy - Faster vs More

Efficiency & Clean Energy - More vs. Faster

It's Time For A Climate Vote - On the Record

Good COP, Bad COP .....Thoughts Before Glasgow

One of These Things is Not Like the Others

What I Should Have Written About

The Serenity of Being a Climate Voter

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Some Things That Caught My Eye ...

Poll Numbers Show a Lack of Urgency to Act on Climate

A Monmouth University poll conducted last month shows a 10-point decline in Americans who says climate change is a “very serious” problem, falling from 56 percent in September 2021 to 46 percent in April.

There was a 17-point drop over the last three years among ages 18-34 in choosing it as a “very serious” problem. Sixty-seven percent in that cohort said climate change was a very serious problem in 2021, compared to 50 percent this year.

University Officials in charge of the poll summarized results by saying that most Americans are still in favor of climate action, but they do not think it is urgent.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4646749-fewer-americans-see-climate-change-as-very-serious-problem-survey/

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_050624/

Polling Shows How Many People Vote on Climate

When voters cast their ballots in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, many were driven by their concern for climate change, according to new research out of CU Boulder’s Center for Environmental Futures (C-SEF). The new report determined that views on climate change played a significant role in whom people voted for, concluding that the climate issue very likely cost Republicans the 2020 election, all else equal.

https://cires.colorado.edu/news/us-voters-climate-change-opinions-swing-elections

Like to Know What People in Your County Think About Climate Change?

Folks at the Yale Center for Climate Communication recently updated and expanded a tool they have. The latter allows a custom fact sheet to be generated on various climate opinion questions to be generated for all 50 States, all 435 Congressional Districts, and 3,142 Counties.

https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/factsheets/?utm_source=Yale+Program+on+Climate+Change+Communication&utm_campaign=96aa0ac461-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2024_05_06_02_59&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-96aa0ac461-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D

Your Talking Point Re: New EPA Regs for Power Plants

You likely saw a lot about this in the general media, and rightfully so as it is a big deal. But the key thing to understand, as discussed in this article, is that the only option is not to shut plants down. The other one is to employ carbon capture and sequestration.

https://grist.org/regulation/epa-carbon-capture-coal-emissions/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=daily

Oh Well…When You Explain It That Way…

Shell and others say they plan to drill for oil and gas in the Gulf of Mexico in part because doing so releases fewer greenhouse gases than drilling on land.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/03/business/energy-environment/shell-offshore-oil-gulf-of-mexico.html

Your Talking Point on Where Fossil Use is Growing

The challenge of meeting rising electricity demand without increasing fossil use is not just a U.S. one. The article below shows what is happening country by country. It shows how coal use is growing with power demand in India, China, Malaysia, and Indonesia. But the snap shots of the other countries show the great differences in what you use based on where you “sit”.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/20/climate/global-power-electricity-fossil-fuels-coal.html?unlocked_article_code=1.qU0.8Y-v.Mdw3I3fhXzvZ&smid=url-share

Emissions From on High?

You likely know that the Annual Climate Conference (known as COP) will be held for the third year in a row in a “Petrostate”. This year the event will be held in Azerbaijan. At a recent international event in Berlin, the President of Azerbaijan said that his country’s fossil fuel reserves were a “gift of the gods” and that expansion of it was “Devine” aid for Europe as it shifts from Russian energy supplies.

https://www.politico.eu/article/azerbaijan-president-ilham-aliyev-cop29-climate-change-gas/

Another Reason a Smart, Modern Grid is Important

There is a lot of discussion – and activity – related to the idea of making the grid “smarter” and in particular better able to handle all of the new emissions-free energy, storage, demand response and other dynamic options. But as this article describes, work is being done to also improve the wires themselves. Discussed is a process called reconductoring.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/09/climate/electric-grid-more-power.html

A Good Look at Sea Level Rise Already in Place

You probably know that sea level rise is not just something that will happen in the future. You also likely understand that sea level rise will happen differently, to different levels, in different places. But the data presented here on what has already happened along the southern U.S. coast w

https://wapo.st/44AvGBO

AI and the Grid – A Three-Sided Coin?

A new DOE Report concludes that AI has the potential to be of tremendous benefit to critical energy infrastructure, with a wide range of benefits that can dramatically improve nearly all aspects of the sector – including security, reliability, and resilience. However, it finds that the path to realizing these benefits reveals the clear need for regularly updated, risk-aware best practice guidance to facilitate the safe, secure, and beneficial deployment of AI in critical energy infrastructure.

Those are two sides of the coin. The third, not the focus of this Report but added by me, is the rapidly increasing power demand and grid delivery issues that AI brings.

https://www.energy.gov/ceser/articles/doe-delivers-initial-risk-assessment-artificial-intelligence-critical-energy

Cities May be the Best Climate Actor

A long time ago, I was instantly convinced of something when I heard a colleague talk about it in a conversation. He pointed out that Cities and local governments can play a unique – and significant – and faster - role in decarbonization and increased use of non-carbon energy. The reason? They have much more control over what they act on and they are tactically responsible for all sorts of actions in their footprint, not to mention sticking within a budget. A good example of their power is building codes. Another is mass transportation. This is not to say that city councils and other similar bodies are not highly political and subject to disagreement. But they are usually of the sort that can act faster than state and federal governments. Let me know If you disagree. The link is to a new Report from the IEA on this.

https://www.iea.org/reports/empowering-urban-energy-transitions?utm_campaign=IEA+newsletters&utm_medium=Email&utm_source=SendGrid

Good News for One of the Holy Grails

Unlike the scene in Indiana Jones, I like to think there are several “holy grails” that make or break our quest to get emissions under control and then reduce them. One of mine is storage, and here is some good news about how fast storage costs are falling.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4621374-energy-battery-storage-costs-steep-decline-iea/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202024-04-30%20Utility%20Dive%20Storage%20%5Bissue:61569%5D&utm_term=Utility%20Dive:%20Storage

You Can’t Just Say “Storage” Anymore

The key to decarbonization and keeping emissions under control is not just energy storage, but also carbon storage. Just as energy storage is one of my “Holy Grails” in terms of injecting massive amounts of zero-emission energy into the grid, carbon storage from carbon capture and/or extraction is another one. Different options are being pursued, with many being storage underground in caverns or rock. This article talks about another type about to be deployed.

https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/emissions-reduction/frontier-bets-58.3m-on-carbon-removal-startup-vaulted-deep?utm_medium=email

DOE Report Looks at the Multitude of Factors in Using Gas Plants to Meet Electricity Demand

One of the biggest issues in climate right now is the recent and forecasted rise in electricity demand, and how that demand will be met. Forgetting about CO2 and methane for the moment (which we should not do) one of the usual suspects for this is gas power plants. DOE just put out a Report that looks at all the things that should considered relative to this option.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/DOE-future-resource-adequacy-electricity-demand-growth/713561/

States Having Different Thoughts on Data Centers as Economic Development

Economic development can be the lifeblood for a healthy economy in a state, and seeking it is a normal part of the job for state officials. Large Data Centers have been a prime target for many years now. But growth in Data Centers is not going to stop. McKinsey they will double their demand from 17 Gigawatts in 2022 to 35 GW by 2030. Some states are now beginning to look at the energy, water and land use of these buildings a bit differently, as described in this article.

https://stateline.org/2024/04/30/states-rethink-data-centers-as-electricity-hogs-strain-the-grid/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202024-04-30%20Utility%20Dive%20Newsletter%20%5Bissue:61572%5D&utm_term=Utility%20Dive

Not All Meat has the Same Carbon Footprint

A lot of carbon is emitted in the production and delivery of meat to the American dinner table. But not all meat has the same emissions profile. Beef wins – or loses if you think about it.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-21/the-diet-shift-that-makes-the-biggest-impact-on-climate-change?cmpid=BBD043024_GREENDAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=240430&utm_campaign=greendaily

The Origin of the Carbon Footprint

I think I have mentioned the fact that the Carbon Footprint is a concept that originated on Madison Avenue with the client being the oil & gas industry. In doing some related research recently, I came across this good article from 2021 telling the story.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/23/big-oil-coined-carbon-footprints-to-blame-us-for-their-greed-keep-them-on-the-hook?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Internals From the Oil & Gas Companies

It would have hard to miss the general media coverage of the recent Senate Hearings focused on a new Senate-House Report showing the internal communications, strategies, plans, etc. of the oil & gas industry with respect to climate policy. If you don’t know what I am referring to, you might take a look at any of these articles.

https://grist.org/accountability/new-documents-bp-oil-companies-natural-gas-emissions/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=daily

https://heated.world/p/new-internal-big-oil-documents-just?utm_campaign=email-post&r=848z4&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/30/senate-democrats-big-oil-report-climate-change

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gotten limaNot Ea Day)

Climate Descendants

One of my friends who gets this newsletter saw the one I sent about Arbor Day, and asked me to appear at a small, local ceremony on April 26^th, the actual date for that Holiday.

The weather was sunny and beautiful as about 50 kids from Grades k-4 gathered on the lawn at a local park to plant two maple trees (with help from a local landscaping company).

I was asked to make remarks about trees and climate change, and in thinking about what I would say I reminded myself that I really shouldn’t get too detailed. For example, I decided I should probably not use the term carbon dioxide, and instead talk about carbon pollution.

The head of the school introduced me and said I was there to talk about climate change, and so my first comment was in the form of a question; I asked how many of them had heard about climate change. Almost every hand shot up. I then asked what it was. At least a dozen hands went up. The child that I called on proceeded to talk to me about how carbon dioxide is building up in the atmosphere and creating a blanket around the earth and making it warmer.

So much for dumbing down climate change for this group. I said to the girl who had spoken, “maybe I should sit down, and you can do the rest of the presentation!”

We then had a 20 minute-plus Q&A that featured no stupid questions or comments from the kids. They asked about deforestation. They asked why electric cars are good. They asked about the coral reefs. They asked about carbon dioxide from factories and cars.

What they didn’t ask me about was the future, and I have to say that I was expecting one of them to do that given the way that the conversation was going. We came close when they talked about what the “change” in climate change meant for animals. I admit that I was not looking forward to a future-oriented question.

The reason they probably didn’t ask about their future was that as sophisticated as they seemed to be in understanding global warming and climate change, they were too young to connect the dots that lead to visualization of the bad- and worst-case climate scenarios. They were also too young to have participated in any of the young person polls that show the high levels of climate anxiety in young people today.

This is 2024 and let’s say the average age of the kids I spoke to was 7. That means that these kids will be in their early 30’s when 2050 comes around, which is the target date upon which so many emission reduction pledges and plans are built. Yet those pledges and plans are falling by the wayside as countries and companies pull them back because of their cost and/or their favorability with the public and other stakeholders.

The pledges where follow-up action is faltering is also on the personal, individual front. Recent work at Yale shows that even Americans who say they will definitely/probably do some things on climate change didn’t do them. Sign a petition, even online, about global warming? 51% percent say they would; 16% actually do it. Contact a government official about global warming? 28% to 8%.

So, what are these kids supposed to do when 2050 comes around?

Climate change is not the only thing in their future. They will be faced with a need to solidify Social Security and the social safety net. They will be the ones that have to deal with the national debt. They will need to pay the cost of upgrading our crumbling infrastructure.

They will have to pay the costs of dealing with the impacts of climate change and the costs to adapt to it. They will have to live in a climate-changed world because those of us today did not sacrifice anything to prevent climate change from happening.

Are we really going to do that? Is there any sign that we are changing or will change? Is there any sign that we will sacrifice anything today to make it easier on those kids who sat with me that day and then helped shovel dirt into a hole where a tree was planted?

The people in the future are not strangers – they are our descendants. And the future will be here sooner than you think.

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If you were forwarded this email, click the button below to sign up to receive these Blog Posts.

Join Our Email List

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Links to Past Posts:

Emissions as a Choice in Flying

The Forgotten Climate Holiday in April (not Earth Day)

Climate Change and the Snail Darter

St. Patrick's Day and Climate Change

Charging My Car in Manhattan

Step Into These Shoes Wearing a Climate and Energy Hat