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After observing an evident downtrend for the last three months, not surprisingly, March saw IS operations around the world significantly increase in their attacks. From February 2023 to March 2023, there was a 37% increase in attacks. Overall, IS claimed responsibility for 91 of those attacks, which TRAC had anticipated.
With Ramadan beginning on 23 March 2023, as TRAC predicted, the last 9 days of the month witnessed a sudden rise in the number of IS claimed attacks. Out of the 91 claimed attacks, 22 of them were recorded in just those last nine days.
While it's true that the exact number of Islamic State attacks in any given month cannot be definitively stated, TRAC recorded a massive 158 unclaimed operations that were attributed to the Islamic State in March. TRAC posits the high probability that Islamic State was behind these attacks based on identified targets, tactics, and ideologies associated with the group and their areas of operations. When combined, that puts the the total number reaches up to 249 attacks in March 2023 alone (see diagram below).
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In particular, Islamic State activities in Syria demonstrates the stark differences between claimed and unclaimed attacks above all other IS affiliates. IS carried out 72 attacks in multiple provinces of Syria while claiming only 7 of them. The claimed attacks made it seem like that the group doesn’t have the power and capability it once enjoyed, however, the unclaimed attacks paint the real picture.
Moreover, this highlights the poor assessment by US counter-terrorism analysts that state that there are, at most, only 500 IS fighters left in ash-Sham. If this assessment were true, then the constant peppering of attacks across the vast expanses of Iraq and Syria would not be possible. TRAC contends that the discrepancy between unclaimed and claimed attacks by IS Central Command is intentional and that Islamic State is laying low in order to quietly regroup.
After a period of silence in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Islamic State Khurasan (ISK) and its affiliate in Pakistan have started a wave of attacks targeting the Taliban (IEA), religious minorities, political officials etc. in their respective regions. In March 2023, both groups carried out a total of 30 attacks, which is a 172% increase from February 2023.
And lastly, low-activity areas like Caucasus and Jammu & Kashmir also witnessed some activity from Islamic State. TRAC cannot definitively attribute the IED attack in Kashmir to ISJK, however, the incessant attacks in Ingushetia for the past few days were certainly Islamic State, as evident by one particular incident where IS left behind one of their dead fighters wrapped in an IS flag in Kantyshevo, Russia.
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TRAC Incident Report:
Seven Muslim Children Accused of Being Jihadists Were Killed by Burkinabe Army Inside a Military Base Roughly Two Kilometers Northwest of Ouahigouya, Yatenga Province, Burkina Faso
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Screenshots from video showing the soldiers in uniform alongside military vehicles. | |
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On 03 April 2023, a video was released that included footage of the lifeless bodies of seven Muslim children. These seven children (all approximately aged 15) had been accused of being jihadists an on 14 February 2023, were killed by members of the Burkinabe Army inside a military base, located roughly two kilometers northwest of Ouahigouya, Yatenga Province, in Burkina Faso.
The families reported that the children were abducted in the morning while they were herding cattle nearby. The boys had been stripped down to their undergarments and were bound and likely beaten prior to being shot. One boy was struck on the head with a rock when it was evident he was still alive and on the video that was released, that footage was included.
Following the revelation, on 4 April 2023 Burkina Faso expelled multiple French journalists from the country, accusing them for spreading disinformation and the Burkinabe Military issued an official press release denying the accusation.
However, TRAC posits that there is no doubt as to the evidence of the Burkina Faso's security forces' actions. The uniforms, vehicles and even satellite imagery all confirm the incident, the participants and its location.
Burkina Faso has been a hotbed of violence between al Qaeda and their affiliates battling against Islamic State and their affiliates. Burkina Faso's military has claimed to have stepped up recruiting and to have conducted many CTOs to counter the insurgency, but locals claim their objective has been way off the mark and instead, they round up anyone they suspect of being a jihadi (often an ethnic Fulani Muslim) and the operations leave more civilians, including many children dead.
Contrary to Burkina Faso's stated military objective, these 'extrajudicial' abuses and liberties taken by the Burkinabe army actually helps militant groups like Jama’a Nusrat al-Islam wa ul-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) to recruit new members, especially since the army primarily targets Muslims in their attacks on the civilian population.
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TRAC Incident Report:
Suspected al Shabaab Gunmen Storm the Central Investigation Department (CID) Following an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) Explosion Targeting a Passing-by African Union Transition
Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) Convoy, Mogadishu, Somalia
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Images of the aftermath of the attack. | |
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On 03 April 2023, at 2:00 pm local time, an explosion caused by a roadside Improvised Explosive Device (IED) hit a passing-by Burundi convoy of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). The explosion took place in the proximity of the KM4 junction in Mogadishu, Somalia. At least three female roadside khat traders were injured by debris from the blast. According to local media sources, the convoy was headed to the heavily fortified Halane camp.
Following the roadside IED detonation, gunmen, likely from the al Shabaab stormed the nearby Central Investigation Department (CID) building. The overall number of casualties still remains unknown, as TRAC continues to monitor the incoming details of the incident.
It should be noted that similar attacks on the CID headquarters were also conducted by al-Shabaab militants in July 2016, leading to the death of 11 people, as well as in November 2018 in conjunction with a spate of hotel attacks that left 39 dead and 40 others injured.
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TRAC Incident Report:
Islamic State Khurasan Pakistan (ISKP)
Targeted Assassination of a Sikh Man, Dayal Singh,
in Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
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Screenshot of the ISKP claim from Nashir News Agency and Dayal Singh | |
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On 31 March 2023, Islamic State Khurasan Pakistan (ISKP) militants assassinated a Sikh man named Dayal Singh in Peshawar, Pakistan. Singh was reportedly shot multiple times with a pistol. Local authorities reported that the gunmen riding on a bike, shot two men belonging to the Sikh community. Dayal Singh died on the spot, but there have been no reports about the second victim, Makna Ra Malas.
This is the second targeted assassination of a member of the minority community in less than 24 hours in Pakistan. On 30 March, ISKP members purportedly assassinated a Hindu doctor on Lyari Expressway in Karachi, as he was headed back home.
It should be noted that on many occasions, ISKP’s unofficial media house al-Azaim, through its magazine publication The Voice of Khurasan, has previously asked supporters to specifically target Hindus, describing them as "cow and mice worshiping filth."
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TRAC Incident Report: Suspected Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) Targeted Assassination on Members of the Interior Ministry in Bawku, Upper East Region, Ghana | |
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Video Report:
Group of Six Armed Men Walking in a Street Filmed By a Resident in Les Moulins District,
Nice, France
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Claim Report:
Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) Rocket Attack Targeted Pakistani Army Post
and Arson Attack Targeted a Warid Telecommunication Tower in Tump, Kech, Balochistan, Pakistan
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