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PDF | Research | Week of Mar 10 2025

Quote of the Week

“The economy is fine.”

– Jerome Powell, chair, Federal Reserve. (WSJ).

 
 

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High Five – 2025 Outlook (Last of a Series)

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March 25, 2025 | 2:00pm EDT

The Highs and Lows of Private Credit Defaults and Recoveries

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Private Credit in a Post-Rate World

(Third of a Series)

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As we’ve noted, the banks and private credit managers occupy different places in the corporate finance ecosystem. That’s not to say, of course, that large corporate financings don’t represent real investment opportunities for the right buyers. Or that the expansion and evolution of private capital won’t lead to interesting and constructive solutions for a wide range of market challenges. But it’s important to understand the elements that differentiate the two. And more broadly, what makes an alternative allocation in the 60/40 model so rewarding to investors. 


Let’s take a step back and see where private credit is in its decades-long journey. Since 2007 the asset class has grown to $1.7 trillion. Whether in recessions or growth spurts, zero or record-high rates, pandemics, supply-chain crises, open or closed public credit markets, expanding or compressing spreads, and hot or cold M&A, nothing has stopped its fundraising and investing. The steady, up-and-to-the-right growth of private credit is a testament to its durability through all sorts of economic and market conditions...


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Chart of the Week

Liquids Lag

Return performance of broadly syndicated loans consistently lags private credit. 

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Source: Hamilton Lane, Bloomberg, The Daily Shot.

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Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights

Monthly Returns Diminish Amid

Heightened Uncertainty

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  • Click here to access Bloomberg's US Leveraged Loan Index Report


The Bloomberg US Leveraged Loan Index (Ticker: LOAN), a measure of the US institutional, broadly syndicated, leveraged loan market, returned just 0.21% in February, marking the weakest return since October 2023...


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Contacts: Vincent Daigger, Jasvinder Singh/ Bloomberg

PDI Picks

Tried and trusted approach embraced by LPs

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Many are expecting a recovery in private credit capital formation in 2025, but it’s the long-established direct lending strategy that’s expected to benefit most.

“Higher for longer” interest rates are not good news for everyone – ask placement agents for example. These are the professionals that make their living from pitching niche and/or emerging GP strategies to limited partners – helping them gain exposure and allowing LPs to invest in propositions they may not otherwise have been aware of...


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Contact: Andy Thomson / Private Debt Investor

Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

M&A Deal Activity

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Amid the whiplash of "will they or won't they" come into effect, talk of tariffs have contributed to the slowest start to the US M&A calendar in ten years...



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Contact: Maria Dikeos / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

Morningstar PitchBook Buyout Replication Index excess performance attribution (annualized)

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A returns-based factor analysis using the Fama-French five-factor model plus momentum reveals that the positive alpha from security selection can be explained primarily by a higher market beta...

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Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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US Private Credit Defaults Rose Sharply in 2024 While Lender Losses Remained Limited

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Join Fitch Rating upcoming Webinar: The Highs and Lows of Private Credit Defaults and Recoveries


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The default rate in Fitch Ratings’ portfolio of U.S. privately monitored ratings (PMR) rose sharply to 8.1% in 2024. This is the highest level since Fitch recorded the first default in the portfolio in 2019...


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Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Distribution of MFN Maturity Carveout Horizons

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

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Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

The serial issuer phenomenon: mastering

the art of repricing

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An increasingly tight leveraged finance environment prompted borrowers to visit the loans market multiple times in 2024 in order to reduce pricing on their existing debt. Three rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and increasingly tight spreads from demand outpacing supply were the main factors that led companies to increase the frequency of their deals compared with previous years...


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Contacts: Jayjeet Sharma, Alvaro Ledgard/ Debtwire 

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.