- The S&P 500 is down 23% so far in 2022, on track for its biggest annual decline since 2008. Yet, history shows that this type of drop is not unprecedented. Over the 50 years from 1970-2019, there were 7 recessions, 10 bear markets, and 4 legitimate market crashes with losses of over 30% for the U.S. stock market.
- Airfare prices are set to surge due to pent-up demand plus higher costs for jet fuel and labor. Flights over the Christmas holiday are forecasted to be up 39% since last year.
- Recent data shows that as more investors have crowded into private equity its returns have fallen. In fact, over the past 10 years, the return of PE investments failed to outperform the stock market as the average return was nearly the same as the S&P 500, 14.8%.
- 2022 has been the worst year for “buying the dip” since the 1930s. Instead of rebounding, stocks have continued to fall. After any one-day loss of at least 1%, the S&P 500 has dropped an average of 1.2% over the following week.
A Wealth of Common Sense- "Navigating the Pain of Your First Bear Market"
Barrons- "Holiday Flight Prices Are Already Sky High"
WSJ- "Pensions Brace for Private-Equity Losses"
WSJ- "Buying the Stock-Market Dip Is Backfiring This Year"
Economic Calendar
Monday:
Chicago Fed national activity index (Aug), Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks on wealth inequality, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks
Tuesday:
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks on digital finance, Durable goods orders (Aug), Core capital goods orders (Aug), San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks, S&P Case Shiller U.S. home price index (SAAR) (Jul), FHFA U.S. home price index (SAAR) (Jul), St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks, Consumer confidence index (Sep),New home sales (SAAR) (Aug)
Wednesday:
Trade in goods, advance report (Aug), Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Pending home sales index (Aug), Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers opening remarks, Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman speaks on bank competition, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks
Thursday:
Initial jobless claims (Sep), Continuing jobless claims (Sep), Real gross domestic product revision (SAAR) (Q2), Real gross domestic income revision (SAAR) (Q2), Real final sales to domestic purchasers (SAAR) (Q2), St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks
Friday:
PCE price index (Aug), PCE price index (Aug), PCE price index (year-on-year) (Aug), PCE price index (year-on-year) (Aug), Real consumer spending (Aug), Real disposable incomes (Aug), Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard speaks, Chicago PMI (Sep), UMich consumer sentiment index (late) (Aug), UMich 5-year expected inflation (late) (Aug), Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman speaks on bank supervision, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks on what's driving inflation, New York Fed President John Williams speaks on financial stability
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