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Good Wednesday morning!
Today the FED meeting concludes and their decision on interest rates will be released at 2:00 PM EST, followed by Chairman Powell's Press Conference at 2:30 PM EST. So as the signpost above warns us....volatility ahead!
As mentioned yesterday, the Fed Fund Futures are pricing in a 99% chance of no change for the release this afternoon, so that information is essentially already baked in. HOWEVER, traders and investors around the world will be watching, and it is not the fact that they won't lower rates today, but people will be paying close attention to what they say and how they say it moving forward and that can cause very very large price swings. Be careful out there!!
We continue to be in a very large range and the dips are continuously being bought. Yesterday was no different. Emotionally charged trade higher caused what are know as "single prints" and you can see them highlighted in the profile pic below.
Single prints occur when traders either buy or sell the markets very quickly and very little time and volume trades in those areas. When that happens, if price stays above (or below) the single prints, it shows a strong commitment of who is in control! And right now the bulls are still very much in control!
Futures are relatively flat to mixed this morning, however they are in the upper 1/3rd of yesterday's range so this in and of itself is bullish. Also, staying above the "Key Zone" listed below is also bullish. The profile pic really lays out what to watch for so check it out!!
As of this writing, overnight inventory is 90% net short and and we are inside of yesterday's range. We could be flat and choppy today as market participants are awaiting that information dump @ 2:00-2:30 so don't get chopped up.
VPOC update: 20 untested points of control still below current price!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5255 - 5265
Key Levels: 5235 - 5230 Point of Control & Overnight low
downside target is: 5215 - 5210
/NQ upside target is: 18,370 - 18,395
Key Levels: 18,230 - 18,215 Top of single prints & Overnight low
downside target is : 18,175 - 18,160
/RTY upside target is: 2072 - 2076
downside target is: 2041 - 2038
Economic Data: Light Today. FOMC DAY!
Crude Inventories @ 10:30 AM EST
FED Announcement @ 2:00 PM EST
FED Chair Press Conference @ 2:30 PM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key Demand zone at $5160- 70 with support above at $5230 where Supply would flip to demand if it can break out above $5245. Supply above that at $5253 HOD
- First I am watching to see if the price can hold above $5220 off a break and retest to play long targeting new HOD. A breakdown below $5220 I would then wait for price to break below $5200 then pullback to play short targeting $5175
SPY - Key Demand zone that was previously supply at $514-5115 / Supply at $518
- I would only be interested in playing short below $514 off a break and retest
- Sell off to $510 with a bounce & support $510 looking to play long targeting $513
- Buyers at the open fail to break out above 518 after a break and retest looking to play short first targeting $516 then $514
SPX - Key Demand at $5125 - 5135 with it consolidating at Supply $5190-5180
- I would only be interested in playing short if price can break below $5120
/NQ - Key Demand $18000 - 18050 with Supply at $18290 - 18310 & $18430- 18380
- I would only like to play short if price can break and retest below $18000
QQQ - Key Demand at $434 with Supply flipping to Demand at $437-438
- Key area of Supply $442- 444 - buyers fail to break above I will look short
- Sellers trapped after the open looking to play long above $438
Also Watching …
NVDA - Inside a balanced range Demand at $830-845 and Supply $915-910
TSLA - Consolidating inside Supply at $175-174
- If price can break above and hold $175 I will look to play long targeting $178
As ALWAYS, have your stops in place!!!
Have a great day!
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