- US stocks have fallen 18% or more 10 times in past half century. 60% of the time these market drops were followed by recessions, while 40% were false alarms.
- US home sales are projected to end the year at 5.8 million—a 16% slide from 2021’s multiyear high. This decrease in home prices and sales may help decrease inflation since “housing” constitutes 40% of core CPI (i.e. the inflation metric).
- Investing in quality profit-generating small companies is getting harder. A decade ago 20% of companies in the Russell 2000 index (a small-cap index) were unprofitable. Today that percentage has risen to 33%!
- Even as Tesla reports growth in its car sales it is starting to lose market share to competitors. Tesla accounted for 65% of electric vehicles registered in 2022 (down from 79% in 2020).
Morningstar- "Do Bear Markets Lead to Recessions?"
Barrons- "A Big Chill Is Here for the Housing Market. Next Year Could Bring More Trouble."
Barrons- "Small-Cap Stocks Are Set for Big Gains. 12 Holiday Bargains."
Yahoo Finance- "EV Market New Registration Share"
Economic Calendar
Monday:
S&P U.S. services PMI (final) (Nov), ISM services index (Nov), Factory orders (Oct)
Tuesday:
Trade deficit (Oct)
Wednesday:
Productivity (SAAR) revision (Q3), Unit labor costs (SAAR) revision (Q3), Consumer credit (level change) (Oct)
Thursday:
Initial jobless claims (Dec), Continuing jobless claims (Nov)
Friday:
Producer price index final demand (Nov), UMich consumer sentiment index (early) (Dec), UMich 5-year inflation expectations (early) (Dec), Wholesale inventories revision (Oct), Real household wealth (SAAR) (Q3), Real domestic debt growth (SAAR) (Q3)
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