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Good Thursday morning!!
FED Day did not disappoint as volatility exploded (the VIX went from 14.80 to 28!) and the markets had one of the worst one day sell offs in history! The DOW lost over 1100 points, the S&P almost 180 and the NASDAQ lost over 700 points....all because FED Chair Powell said there would be fewer rate cuts in 2025.
Now please note that this was the "excuse" for massive profit taking in the markets! As we know the trend and momentum has been straight up for a very long time and taking this "froth" off the top was necessary! I have been warning of this for a long time as the market was due for a liquidation break and yesterday we got it, and we got it in a big way! Let's face it, the market does not go straight up forever but there are points in time when the price just keeps going and going and going and we all have witnessed this trend for the past two years! This was inevitable, however, I did not expect so much in one day!
As we said yesterday.....
"The NASDAQ actually took a break from hitting new all time highs again yesterday and is still above the key level of 21,880, telling us that the bull trend it still very much intact. The S&P is still above 6030 but keeps flirting with taking this level out so it could happen at any time. Once this does happen, we could get a signal of more selling, but until that happens, the edge remains to the buyers. "
Well if you were paying attention to these key levels then you would have been prepared to be on the correct side of the trade and that correct side was down! The selling intensified just as the FED released their rate cut of 25 basis points and did not stop for 2 hours! So 21.880 and 6030 got taken out and that was the key sign!!!! And by the way, that is another incredible thing to think about.....most of those losses yesterday occurred in a span of only two hours!!!!! That is massive!
Now all that being said, price moved far away from value yesterday at the end of the session so we are getting a nice bounce this morning to correct and balance out that very "short" inventory. Please keep an eye on the key levels and profile pic although the pic and range yesterday was so extended it is hard for me to show you the entire day....I just can't do it. As mentioned we are having a decent bounce this morning so far so look for upper targets to be hit. Any price that stays below 6004.50 is edge to the bears. Futures are trading @ 5984 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added yesterday but two were take out below!! We still have 2 above and now 27 below current price.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 6010 - 6025 then 6055
Key Levels: 6004.50 then 6027.50 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5900 - 5885
/NQ upside target is: 21,750 - 21,800
Key Level: 21,832 1/2 Back
downside target is : 21,220 - 21,180
/RTY upside target is: 2295 - 2315
downside target is: 2225 - 2210
Economic Data: VERY VERY BUSY DAY !!!
3-Month Bill Settlement
6-Month Bill Settlement
GDP @ 8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index @ 8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits @ 8:30 AM ET
Existing Home Sales @ 10:00 AM ET
Leading Indicators @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
52-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
2-Yr Note Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
5-Yr Note Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Auction @ 1:00 PM ET
Treasury Buyback Results @ 2:00 PM ET
Treasury International Capital @ 4:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet @ 4:30 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - KEY DEMAND $6100-6110 Supply at with Supply at $6160
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $6110 after a pullback below $6100 looking to play SHORT targeting $6050 then $6040
Bullish
Sellers trapped above 6100 after a break and retest above $6105-10 playing LONG targeting $6166 then new HOD
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SPY - Supply flipped to Demand at Supply 603 6022 with Supply at $608-607
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $603 after a break and retest above $604 looking to play LONG targeting high $605 then $606
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $603 after a retest from $602 targeting $601 then breakdown into $599
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/NQ - Key Demand at $22000 with Supply at $22450
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $21950 looking to play long after a pullback holds above $2200 targeting $22300 then $22400
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $22000 looking to play SHORT after a pullback holds below $212955 targeting $22800 then $22700
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QQQ - Key Demand at $530-31 with Supply above at $536 - 537
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $533 looking to play long from a break and retest at $534 targeting high $535 then a breakout into $536s
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $532 after a break and retest below $531 looking to play short targeting $529 then mid high $528
Also watching
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NVDA Supply flipped back to Demand at $131 with Supply above at $139-138
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $131 after a break and retest from $130 looking to play SHORT TARGETING $ $128 then high $126s
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $131 after a break and retest from $132 looking to play long targeting $134 then $135s
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AMD Key Demand flipped to Supply at LOD $127-128 with key Demand below at $123 LOD then Supply above at $133-132
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $127 after a break and retest from $128 looking to play long targeting $129 then $131s
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $127 after a break and retest from $1126 looking to play SHORT TARGETING $124 then $123s
Have a great day!
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