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Good Friday morning.
The first trading day of 2025 gave investors and traders quite a wild ride!!! There were massive intraday swings, both higher and lower, and while the bears won the day with top line figures ending in the red, it was not that bad of a day!
As I stated earlier, given the way the market acted last week into Friday, I was expecting lower, and while we did hit our downside targets, the bulls seemed hellbent on keeping the market from further declines. I thought for sure that early in in the day, when 5980.25 was lost, then subsequent lower levels as well, the bears were sticking the "proverbial fork" in the bulls, at least for the short term. Think about what happened. As we pointed out yesterday morning......
"It will be a tug of war once the opening bell rings to see who will win 5980.25! Only if tempo and momentum accelerates to the downside and takes out 5980.25, then look for 5949 which is 1/2 back from Tuesday and also Value Area High, and then if that level gets taken out, look for the POC next @ 5936 then 5920 then lower targets!"
Well yesterday's lower target range was the 5890-5880 area and yesterdays low was 5874.75!!! That is not bad and again I hope you are paying attention to the levels we give you each day!!! We also just missed hitting the VPOC of 5870 by a few points! We will see if that gets taken out today as it is once again close to our lower targets. Point is, the sellers overwhelmed the buyers and price even took out the December 20th lows, yet the bounce seemed almost automatic and pre planned!?!? hhmmmm Anyway, 5875-5865 will be very important moving forward so pay attention!
For today, it will be about the first key line in the sand @ 5930 which is 1/2 back from yesterday, and then the POC @ 5917.75. Anything in between these levels will be a stalemate and chop. A break out higher over 5930 look for overnight highs then upper targets. If bears take it below 5917.75 then look for overnight low then lower targets! Futures are trading @ 5932 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's added yesterday. We have 5 above with the closest one @ 6027.25 and 26 below current price with the closest sitting @ 5870.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5960 - 5970
Key Levels: 5930 1/2 back 5917.75 POC
downside target is: 5885 - 5875
/NQ upside target is: 21,400 - 21,440
Key Level: 21,300 POC and 21,214 1/2 Back
downside target is : 21,000 - 20,970
/RTY upside target is: 2270 - 2280
downside target is: 2235 - 2228
Economic Data: Light DAY
Motor Vehicle Sales
ISM Manufacturing Index @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET
Thomas Barkin Speaks @ 11:00 AM ET
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM ET
Mary Daly Speaks @ 5:30 PM ET
Mary Daly Speaks @ 1:15 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand at $5874.75 LOD with Supply at $5960 then $5995
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5960 after a pullback below $5955-50 looking to play SHORT targeting $5910 then $5885
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5960 after a break and retest above playing LONG targeting $6020 Thursday HOD at $5995 then $6000
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SPY - Demand at $580-582 with Supply at $589-588
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $588 after a break and retest from $589 targeting $592 then $593
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $588 after a retest from $587 targeting $586 then breakdown into $584
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/NQ - Key Demand at $21150-200 with Supply at $21350 ( same range until Supply is taken out ) only want to play LONG above $21350 :flips to Demand
Bullish
Sellers trapped above 21350 looking to play long after a pullback holds above $21360-65 targeting $21450 then $21500
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $21350 looking to play SHORT after a pullback holds below $21300 targeting $21550 then $21500
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QQQ - Key Demand at $505-508 with Supply above at $514 $523
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $514 looking to play long from a break and retest at $515 targeting high $517s then a breakout into $518
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $514 after a break and retest below $513 looking to play short targeting $512 then mid high $510s
Also watching
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TSLA Demand flipped to Supply at $390-389 with Supply at $410-411
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $390 after a break and retest from $389 looking to play SHORT TARGETING $ $487 then $486
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $390 after a break and retest from $391 looking to play long targeting $394 then $397
Have a great day and a fun weekend!
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