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Although Walmart and Amazon have done well, the average retail stock has struggled over the last decade, with the S&P Retail Select Industry Index returning -3.2% over the past five years versus a 95% gain for the S&P 500. *1
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The FTC reported that fraud losses reached $15.9 billion in 2025, up 27% year over year, with impostor scams remaining the leading fraud category for the ninth consecutive year. Fake toll-collection texts in particular have increased rapidly. 1
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Last week, the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.18%, a 19-year high, partly reflecting concerns about deficits, as U.S. deficits are expected to average 6.2% from 2023–2026, up from 4.8% in 2010–2019 and 2.3% in 2002–2007. *2
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While 46% of trading days since 1950 have been negative, the S&P 500 has historically been positive 80% of the time over one-year periods and 93% of the time over rolling five-year periods. *3
- MFS – “Beyond the News”
- Bloomberg – “The Dangerous Brew That’s Rattling Bond Markets”
- A Wealth of Common Sense – “Stories vs. Statistics”
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Economic Calendar
Monday:
None scheduled, Memorial Day holiday
Tuesday:
S&P Case-Shiller home price index, Consumer confidence, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speech
Wednesday:
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speech, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook speech, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech
Thursday:
Initial jobless claims, Durable-goods orders, Durable-goods minus transportation, New York Fed President John Williams speech, New home sales, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speech, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speech
Friday:
GDP, Personal income, Personal spending, PCE index, PCE year-over-year, Core PCE index, Core PCE year-over-year, Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, Advanced retail inventories, Advanced wholesale inventories, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman speech, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson speech, Chicago Business Barometer, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech
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