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Weekly Analyst Review

16 August 2023

 

Bottom Line Up Front

On 13 August 2023, two unknown assailants, widely suspected to be Islamic State militants, opened fire on pilgrims entering the Shah Cherakh Mausoleum in Shiraz City, Fars Province, Iran. The attack killed four and injured ten others; and one attacker was taken into custody while one other remained at large.


TRAC has long suspected that Islamic State Central Command has been planning something large-scale to take place soon in Iran because of the sleeper cells we have been tracking in Iran.


This attack certainly mirrors the Islamic State-claimed attack targeting pilgrims at the Shah-Cheragh Mausoleum in Shiraz, which took place back in October 2022. The open-air grand mosque remains quite vulnerable to assaults.


It is commonplace for Islamic State not to claim attacks with suspects in custody, even when they know that they inspired the attack, because they do not want to litigators more evidence against those being held. However, the fact that the perpetrators targeted the same mausoleum, using the same exact style of attack was more than convincing for TRAC to posit this to be an attack inspired by IS.

The day following the attack, Iranian Special Services conducted a CTO which resulted in the detention of ten foreigners who are believed to have been involved in the attack. The militant who was detained the day of the attack, Rekhmatulla Norozov (pictured at the left), a resident of Tajikistan, identified the ten foreigners, some of whom were from Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, as well as other nations.


According to Iranian police, the execution of Islamic State militants who were involved in planning the terrorist attack in Shiraz last year served as the inspiration for this attack. It is possible that this most recent assault was planned by the same Azerbaijani citizen who managed to escape the country after the October 2022 attack.


Since 2018, Islamic State hasn't had an overwhelming amount of success with attacks on Iranian soil. If this attack is claimed, this will be a large propaganda coup for Islamic State Central Command.

Other Developments

TRAC Incident Report:

An Ansar al-Sharia in Yemen (ASY / AQAP / AQY) Planted Roadside IED Detonated & Killed Brigadier General Abdulatif al-Sayyid, in Wadi al-Radf, Mudiyah, Abyan Governorate, Yemen

Claim released by AQAP

On 10 August 2023, Brigadier General Abdulatif al-Sayyid, the head of the Abyan’s governorate Security Belt Forces was killed when a planted roadside IED detonated while he was traveling in the south-western Yemen village of Mudiyah. The bombing, which was officially claimed by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), also took the lives of Lieutenant Saleh al-Yusefi al-Yafai and Mohammed Karid al-Jadaani, a well-known tribal sheikh, who had been traveling with al-Sayyid.


It was reported that the commander was out examining troops dispatched into the Moudia district of Abyan’s hilly terrain. The objective of those troops was to drive out AQAP militants from their bases. The militants had placed an explosive device on the main road of the Wadi Refaf area, in Mudiya, through which the Brigadier General’s convoy passed. Al-Sayyid was said to have been killed instantaneously, along with at least three other soldiers who were part of his escort team. Several soldiers were also severely injured on the spot.


AQAP militants claim weekly attacks in the Abyan governorate and this was the fourth official claim issued by AQAP in the last ten days. Of particular note, this attack was the second ASY/AQAP/AQY attack reported on the same day in the Mudiyah area.

Multiple Yemeni army leaders and other dignitaries have expressed their sorrow and appreciation for the General, including the U.S. ambassador in Yemen. General al-Sayyid (pictured to the right) was an important member of UAE-affiliated forces in southern Yemen and has been especially active in combatting terrorism in the Abyan governorate since the 2010s. He was appointed commander of the Security Belt Forces in Abyan governorate only recently, on 03 August 2023.


Faced with this rise in violence, the UAE-backed coalition forces have declared the beginning of a new security operation against terrorism in Abyan called “the Swords of Haws.”

TRAC Incident Report:

AEK Supporter Dies in a Knife-Attack During Clashes Between

Far-Right and Far-Left Football Fans, Ahead of the Match

AEK-Dinamo Zagreb, Athens, Greece

Photo circulated on social media depicting football fans of AEK and St. Pauli

On 07 August 2023, clashes erupted between fans of AEK Athens F.C. and Dinamo Zagreb football (soccer) clubs outside AEK’s stadium, in Athens, Greece. As a result of the fights, a 29-year-old AEK fan, identified as Michalis Katsouris, fell victim to a knife attack, which ultimately led to his death. Three Greek and five Croatian fans were also injured during the clashes and another 98 people were arrested and taken into custody.


This incident took place ahead of the Champions League qualifying-round match between AEK and Dinamo, which was scheduled to take place at AEK’s stadium on 09 August. The gravity of the clashes led authorities to order the event to be postponed.


It should be noted that despite being banned from attending matches between Dinamo and AEK, 150 Croatian extreme far-right Dinamo football fans belonging to the group known as Bad Blue Boys of Zagreb, arrived in Athens on 08 August with the specific aim to clash with their extreme far-left rivals of AEK. Furthermore, it appears that far-right ultras of the Greek Panathinaikos team joined the fights alongside the Bad Blue Boys.


It is also noteworthy that following the 07 August fights in Athens, right-wing extremist insiders circulated a photo on their social media channels depicting football fans of AEK and St. Pauli, a German professional football club based in the St. Pauli district of Hamburg, with the image of a switchblade printed on a background banner and a slogan that reads ‘Hospitalize Your Local Fascist‘, an anti-fascist message alluding to the Antifa extreme far-left movement. The said social media post included a comment that read ‘You had the chance and fail'; a clear reference to the killing of the aforementioned AEK fan purportedly at the hands of a far-right extremist, Dinamo fan.

TRAC Incident Report:

Salwan Momika, Who Burned a Qur'an in the Front of the Stockholm Central Mosque on Eid, has Burned Another Qur'an in Front of the Royal Palace in Stockholm, Sweden

Image of the where the incident took place, Salwan Momika is on the right.

On 14 August 2023 Iraqi-Christian provocateur, Salwan Momika, burned a copy of the Qur'an in front of the Royal Palace in Sweden. This is the second time in the past two months that Momika not just conducted such a demonstration, but was officially issued a permit for the burning, which has led to widespread international protests. Sweden, which has strong freedom of speech laws allowing this type of demonstration, has faced considerable backlash previously for permitting Qur'an burnings.


The country has now put themselves in between a proverbial rock and a hard place, as other ethno-nationalists, right-wing extremists, left-wing extremists, or religious provocateurs file for similar demonstrations. It is a burdensome situation for Swedish officials to allow the burning of the Qur'an, but to possibly prohibit the same of the Torah or the Bible, even if lessons have purportedly been learned. The rise of Islamophobia on the European continent as a whole only adds to the already high tension.


Because of this demonstration, one can expect to see a similar backlash to that of the previous burning, which included riots, arson, and deterioration of relations with majority Muslim nations. So far, this most recent incident has only shown up on Islamic State Insider chats, but TRAC is certain that attacks will be committed to Swedish embassies and that there exists a strong likelihood for attacks to be carried out on Swedish citizens, as well as more riots from Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s followers.

On Our Radar:

 

TRAC Incident Report: White Supremacist Threatened to Attack the National Power Grid Unless Two Far-Right-Tied Would-Be Bank Robbers Were Freed From Jail, United States

TRAC Photo Report:

Aryan Freedom Network (AFN) Invites US Military Veterans to Join the AFN Movement, United States

TRAC Incident Report: Bandits Kill At Least 26 Soldiers in Ambush on F215; Evacuation Helicopter Shot Down En Route Near Chukuba, Shiroro LGA, Niger State, Nigeria

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