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Good Thursday morning!
Now that was a wild ride and we are right back into the mosh pit my friends. Yesterday started out very bullish, and early on in the session, the DOW was topping out with over a +1,000 point gain, just like Tuesday, however, that VERY KEY level of 5420 was lost and the bulls found themselves under attack again by the bears! All top-line figures closed in the green but well off their intraday highs. That is a problem!
This failure definitely surprised me, but paying attention to 5420 alerted me to the potential for more downside to the gap fill of 5402 from April 16th, and sure enough, that level was hit. We also just missed the next downside target of 5377, which was the overnight low, and yesterday's low was 5383.75. Pretty close! Again, I implore you: stay fluid with these markets.
Today will be tricky because of the way the market closed yesterday and the overnight action, which is very mixed. However, the game plan is very clear. In the key levels and profile pic below, price explored into the gap between yesterday's low of 5383.75 and Tuesday's high of 5339.25. The overnight low is 5355.25 in the ES. The overnight lows in both the ES and NQ will be of utmost importance today! If these levels are lost, then I will be looking for the gap fill to Tuesday's high and then to lower targets. PLEASE pay attention to these key levels.
Also of importance is yesterday's low of 5383.75. If buyers can keep price above that level, then the bulls may have a chance for higher, first to the POC (Point of Control) at 5410, then to 1/2 back at 5441. Now if 5441-5445 gets taken out to the upside, then it should push prices higher to upper targets!
It's really that simple. Who will win the battle today? The bulls or the bears? As I mentioned earlier, the way the market lost a huge portion of its gains yesterday really made the move forward cloudy. It is a jump ball at this point, so let's see who is more aggressive today once the opening bell rings. All this being said, you now have a roadmap of exactly what to look for so have a great day and stay calm!
Futures are trading at 5404 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: The large move higher early on in the session took out the VPOC above at 5430 as I mentioned would be in play. Also, because we still have a gap below (meaning yesterday's range DID NOT get back into Tuesday's range), we have added yet another new VPOC below at 5315. We now have 7 above and 15 below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5480 - 5500
Key Level: 5383.75 Wed Low then 5410 then 5441 1/2 back
downside target is: 5339.72 Tuesday high then 5325 - 5310
/NQ upside target is: 18,950 - 19,000 then 19,150 - 19,200
Key Level: 18,880 Value Area Low then 18,729.75 Yesterday's low
downside target is : 18,650 - 18,590 then 18,450
/RTY upside target is: 1960 - 1970
downside target is: 1870 - 1850
Economic Data: Red Star Event
Chicago Fed National Activity Index @8:30 AM ET
Durable Goods 8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction @ 1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet @ 4:30 PM ET
Neel Kashkari Speaks @ 5:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
- /ES - Key Demand $5370-80 with Supply at $5540-28
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5350 looking to play a break and retest above $5340 long targeting $5475 then $5500s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5350 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5340 targeting $5315 then a break down into $5200s
- SPY Key demand at then at $533-534 with Supply above at $544-43
Bullish Sellers trapped above $544 looking to play a break and retest from $545 long targeting $547 then a breakout mid high $548ss
Bearish Buyers trapped below $532 after a break and retest below $531 targeting $528s then a breakdown into $527s
- /NQ Key demand at $18600 with Supply above at $19256-19300
Bullish Sellers trapped above $19100 looking to play a break and retest above $19150 long targeting $19300s then a breakout back into low $19400’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $18700 looking to play short from below $18655
Have a great day!!
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